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Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby PolestaR » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 11:57:29

What theoretically possible methods could replace oil in the future, or make oil redundant? I am just looking at all things which *MAY* be possible, not necessarily *WILL* be possible. At the moment I have these things, but I assume there are more :-

1) Zero point energy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-point_energy
http://www.padrak.com/ine/ZPESCIAM.html

2) Controlled Nuclear Fusion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fusion

3) Nuclear Fission. Though I'm not sure about this one, it seems unlikely due to ore availability and the fact that people want nuclear plants decommissioned which leads to a possible negative EROEI.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fission

4) Algae based biofuels. All the other biofuels need way too much space that we don't have, algae seems the only alternative but with it's own ridiculous requirements. If those requirements can be solved I guess it's possible they could replace oil.
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby neocone » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 14:31:23

How about we just ditch cars or drive 95% less?

Like duh!!!!

Oh I forgot: It will happen whether we want it or not!!!
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby Aaron » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 14:56:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('neocone', 'H')ow about we just ditch cars or drive 95% less?

Like duh!!!!

Oh I forgot: It will happen whether we want it or not!!!


Ok... I nominate you to tell China.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby neocone » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 15:06:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'O')k... I nominate you to tell China.


Per capita they drive 1000 times less than we do... so when they do 20 times less it will be the peak of it all.

People think China is booming... but it is from a very low point.

Mali and Niger also have 20-30% of economic growth per year for that matter...
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby Bas » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 15:14:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('neocone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'O')k... I nominate you to tell China.


Per capita they drive 1000 times less than we do... so when they do 20 times less it will be the peak of it all.

People think China is booming... but it is from a very low point.

Mali and Niger also have 20-30% of economic growth per year for that matter...


it's not that much of a lowpoint anymore, they are actually at the point where the middle class starts to buy cars en masse.
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby americandream » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 17:50:24

Dour carless communism lost the Cold War and hey hey hey capitalism won.......hahahahaha....and you're all now securing your burial plots.....pathetic....death for what.....cheap swiss army knives and bottle openers.

Cretinsssssss!!!!
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby PolestaR » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 00:35:51

You can't power down though in our society without violence/deaths occurring , so I don't think that it will happen voluntarily. It's good to know all the energy alternatives, and be up to date with them, just in case they ruin your doomer plans if you have any.

Whilst we have easily available and cheap energy problems like not enough food and water can easily be solved for many more billions of people. How many billions do you guys want on the planet, if you had the choice?
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby TonyPrep » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 06:43:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '1')) Zero point energy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-point_energy
You can strike this off the list. From the Wikipedia entry you linked to:

"Because zero point energy is the lowest possible energy a system can have, this energy cannot be removed from the system."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '2')) Controlled Nuclear Fusion.

This was my big hope. Only if society hangs together long enough (40 years or more), will this have a chance. Remember also that energy is not the only limit that we're likely to face.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '3')) Nuclear Fission. Though I'm not sure about this one, it seems unlikely due to ore availability and the fact that people want nuclear plants decommissioned which leads to a possible negative EROEI.
Yeah, this seems like a dead end, with limited fuel, though some seem to think that some designs don't have this problem, to any meaningful degree. The storing of waste is also something that needs to be sorted.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '4')) Algae based biofuels. All the other biofuels need way too much space that we don't have, algae seems the only alternative but with it's own ridiculous requirements. If those requirements can be solved I guess it's possible they could replace oil.
It's possible but I'd like to know the limits and the possibility of nature's whims drastically reducing the yields.

For any possible substitute, we have to factor in the limits. Any solution that uses resources, apparently renewable or not, will reach some limit that cannot be breached, if it has to accommodate growth. Growth will always kill any solution that uses finite resources.
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby PolestaR » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 12:32:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '1')) Zero point energy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-point_energy
You can strike this off the list. From the Wikipedia entry you linked to:

"Because zero point energy is the lowest possible energy a system can have, this energy cannot be removed from the system."


Yeah well, other articles say you can gain power out of it, and the guys at the UFO disclosure thing (whole 'nother bowl of worms) think the govt is holding something back regarding it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '2')) Controlled Nuclear Fusion.

This was my big hope. Only if society hangs together long enough (40 years or more), will this have a chance. Remember also that energy is not the only limit that we're likely to face.


Well with cheap energy still available only land is the other limit we will face, besides climate issues.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '3')) Nuclear Fission. Though I'm not sure about this one, it seems unlikely due to ore availability and the fact that people want nuclear plants decommissioned which leads to a possible negative EROEI.Yeah, this seems like a dead end, with limited fuel, though some seem to think that some designs don't have this problem, to any meaningful degree. The storing of waste is also something that needs to be sorted.

Storage of waste isn't important to me, if it gets bad enough people won't care that some X km by X km region in the desert can't be visited anymore due to nuclear waste.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '4')) Algae based biofuels. All the other biofuels need way too much space that we don't have, algae seems the only alternative but with it's own ridiculous requirements. If those requirements can be solved I guess it's possible they could replace oil.It's possible but I'd like to know the limits and the possibility of nature's whims drastically reducing the yields.

For any possible substitute, we have to factor in the limits. Any solution that uses resources, apparently renewable or not, will reach some limit that cannot be breached, if it has to accommodate growth. Growth will always kill any solution that uses finite resources.

All I really care about is my life time. If algae can solve growth issues in my lifetime there is no point in being a doomer. Some generation eventually will face overpopulation issues, I just hope it is mine.
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby TonyPrep » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 18:51:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '1')) Zero point energy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-point_energy
You can strike this off the list. From the Wikipedia entry you linked to:

"Because zero point energy is the lowest possible energy a system can have, this energy cannot be removed from the system."


Yeah well, other articles say you can gain power out of it
I've always understood zero point energy to be a minimum energy level. If you can take energy out of it, it won't be a minimum level. No, I don't think we should be placing any hope in this.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '2')) Controlled Nuclear Fusion.

This was my big hope. Only if society hangs together long enough (40 years or more), will this have a chance. Remember also that energy is not the only limit that we're likely to face.

Well with cheap energy still available only land is the other limit we will face, besides climate issues.Soil degradation, fresh water and raw materials are other limits. Enough energy can mask some of these limits but I don't expect that to continue for 40 years.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', 'S')torage of waste isn't important to me, if it gets bad enough people won't care that some X km by X km region in the desert can't be visited anymore due to nuclear waste.But there is no storage solution yet. Waste is currently held in temporary stores that are not in the middle of the desert. Until there is a solution that is operating, it should be important to you. It might also be a further factor if society doesn't hold together (i.e. if the waste becomes a weapon).$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', 'A')ll I really care about is my life time.That's fair enough. However, I have family and friends, so I'm concerned with the next couple of generations, at least. So our list of alternatives may differ.
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby Omnitir » Thu 01 Feb 2007, 06:21:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '
')4) Algae based biofuels. All the other biofuels need way too much space that we don't have, algae seems the only alternative but with it's own ridiculous requirements. If those requirements can be solved I guess it's possible they could replace oil.

How about synthetic biofuels? Why make ethanol to power vehicles when through advanced bio-engineering we could be making something that looks a lot more like gasoline?
These guys seem to think they've got the next oil.

Then there is solar. There is more solar energy hitting the earth each day then we could possibly use. Is it not possible that we could continue to improve our various solar technologies? Advances in nanotech certainly suggest this possibility through PV technology. Then there are more exotic possibilities such as solar towers, or space based solar arrays.

There is also geothermal technology. Much of the world has the potential for geothermal exploitation. This technology has not really been actively pursued since the early 80's but with decades of technological progress from related oil industry technologies, geothermal could have considerable potential. This MIT study has backed geothermal as a potential key U.S. energy resource.

Then there is this crazy concept that 'the next oil' doesn't necessarily need to be a single technology but a large array of different technologies.
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby gg3 » Thu 01 Feb 2007, 12:13:23

Zero point: The math says there's potential energy there. The best we've been able to get so far is just enough to show it works in the lab (the Casimir effect). If ZPE was ever demonstrated practical, it would lead to weapons that make the H-bomb look like a firecracker, so hopefully there won't be any breakthroughs in this area any time soon.

Fusion: Well, we already turned this one into a weapon so... Realistically it deserves all the R&D funding it needs, but still shouldn't be counted on as a commercial power source for another 50 years.

Fission: New reactor designs: operational safety issues solved. New methods for recycling nuclear waste with 95% efficiency (Scientific American, December 2005): waste disposal issues effectively solved. Nuclear baseload capacity is the best way to maximize the use of solar and wind. Full steam ahead, let's build!

Know what'll really save the world? A good male contraceptive pill that both a) shuts down sperm production entirely for weeks or months at a time and b) enables men to have multiple orgasms just as women can naturally. "Hey honey, now I can keep up with you!" That would also be a fantastic strategy for powerdown. "Mall, schmall! We're staying in bed all weekend!
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby TonyPrep » Thu 01 Feb 2007, 16:58:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'w')aste disposal issues effectively solved
Until those solutions are actually in operation, I'll reserve judgement on such optimistic statements.

I'm not sure that the Casimir effect shows that energy can be extracted from the minimum energy level but haven't got time to check that out, right now.
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby JRP3 » Thu 01 Feb 2007, 17:46:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', '
')
Know what'll really save the world? A good male contraceptive pill that both a) shuts down sperm production entirely for weeks or months at a time and b) enables men to have multiple orgasms just as women can naturally. "Hey honey, now I can keep up with you!" That would also be a fantastic strategy for powerdown. "Mall, schmall! We're staying in bed all weekend!


Now you're talking. No technology of any sort will save is if we keep on procreating. Mass forced sterilization is probably the only way to get the population in check until enough die off to a stabilizing level. Slip something in the drinking water maybe.
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby Pherlin » Thu 01 Feb 2007, 22:48:13

Just a thought on Fission...

Technically there's plenty of fuel for it to power us indefinately... Breeder Reactors get their name from the fact that they actually produce more fissionable materials.... The problem lies therein that they produce plutonium... and in the hands of certain groups that could be a bad thing.
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby gg3 » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 02:35:41

Re. plutonium: Ahh, but we're not talking about selling reactors to Somalia, are we? The "proliferation" issue is a non-issue with reactors in countries that have stable democratic governments.

Re. "procreation." It's not a "pro" creation, it's an "amateur" creation. A "pro" creation is something such as a novel, a record album, a sculpture, a bridge, a skyscraper, a painting... you get the idea:-)

Re. the Casimir effect: Demostrated enough energy to make it register on the lab equipment. By which we're talking about a very very small amount. All factors equal, the reason I'd prefer it stayed that way is because of the weapons risk. Our sustainable energy sources research group studied this about five years ago and we came up with some potentially very disturbing weapons design concepts. For example think of something that looks like shredded office paper but slightly metallic brown in color, that can be dumped onto an area and completely blank out all forms of wireless communication. That's a mild one. The not-so-mild end of the spectrum, as I said, makes H-bombs look like firecrackers.

Ultimately we have to live within the solar budget. Thus, all other strategies have to be seen as transitional.
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby pea-jay » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 03:47:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow you're talking. No technology of any sort will save is if we keep on procreating. Mass forced sterilization is probably the only way to get the population in check until enough die off to a stabilizing level. Slip something in the drinking water maybe.


Actually, we've been slipping alot of stuff (estrogen-mimicking chemicals) into the drinking water and other places. Effects are pretty dramatic. Today's men have on average lower sperm counts, by up to 50% in some circumstances than just two generations ago. The instances of feminized traits in males is increasing as are outright gender oddities. Its not just us. Other male species are increadibly messed up. They discovered male fish with ovaries and gender-ambiguous amphibians. Something is indeed in the water and it is slowly squeezing the "maleness"

Just yesterday there was a story on how lavendar oils and lotions were causing young boys to grow breasts.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/HEALTH/01/31/sh ... growth.ap/

This may not have the the same level of concern that global warming gets, but come on is fucking with basic biological processes really a good idea.

Or to put a positive spin on a bad situation, if I were to grow my own knockers, maybe I wont feel the need to grope my wife's.

[smilie=eusa_think.gif]

As for nuclear, arent there other reactions possible. Somewhere I was reading about thorium fission? Nukular power definately will definately be part of the picture if we are to continue some semblence of this thing we call modern civilization.

And sorry to say, I don't see any other cheap way to replace oil. Replacements are definately possible and in some cases they are superior on the sustainability side. It just isnt cheap and a number of cases will require significant government buy-in, especially if it involves large scale infrastructure programs.
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby TonyPrep » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 07:41:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JRP3', 'N')ow you're talking. No technology of any sort will save is if we keep on procreating. Mass forced sterilization is probably the only way to get the population in check until enough die off to a stabilizing level. Slip something in the drinking water maybe.
I'm not sure that an increasingly ageing population is a good thing either. I think more thought needs to go into that idea.
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 08:21:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'R')e. plutonium: Ahh, but we're not talking about selling reactors to Somalia, are we? The "proliferation" issue is a non-issue with reactors in countries that have stable democratic governments.

Proliferation containment of whatever weapon for ever is a lost case anyway.
Lets develope fission (and fusion...) and make sure, we can win (or survive at least) eventual nuclear war (however we should not provoke it...).

BTW. Democracy / lack of it is irrelevant. Democratic nation today may easily turn Nazi tommorow. Look for US and changes, it experiencing now.
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Re: Finally, the cheap and available way to replace oil.

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 08:37:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', '
')Re. the Casimir effect: Demostrated enough energy to make it register on the lab equipment. By which we're talking about a very very small amount. All factors equal, the reason I'd prefer it stayed that way is because of the weapons risk. Our sustainable energy sources research group studied this about five years ago and we came up with some potentially very disturbing weapons design concepts. For example think of something that looks like shredded office paper but slightly metallic brown in color, that can be dumped onto an area and completely blank out all forms of wireless communication. That's a mild one. The not-so-mild end of the spectrum, as I said, makes H-bombs look like firecrackers.

Ultimately we have to live within the solar budget. Thus, all other strategies have to be seen as transitional.


Density of energy "released" by Cassimir effect makes it unsuitable as a weapon (within of our understanding of phenomenon).

The effect itself is based on creation of vacuum of lower energy, than ours "natural" vacuum has.
Fortunately you probably cannot create arbitrary large Cassimir vacuum systems without greater imput of energy, than Cassimir systems can potentially deliver.

And now, what about quantum vacuum phase transition, the last weapon applied by the man?
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