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Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 26 Jan 2007, 21:34:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', ' ')Even if we did extract all known oil deposits there's no reason why technology could not be improved to simply drill deeper. Now you have a whole new level of oil deposits to tap into. In theory there would be a nearly limitless amount of oil, because you could always create technology to drill just a little deeper.


This is my favorite. Levels of oil windows, eh?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby KrellEnergySource » Fri 26 Jan 2007, 21:34:48

Over 25 years ago, the world was already going through the trouble of drawing oil from beneath the freakin' NORTH SEA. That's not a cakewalk, as the North Sea is not a hospitable environment for ships and platforms. And according to wikipedia:

"North Sea oil production fell ten percent (230,000 barrels) in 2004, and fell an additional 12.8% in 2005. This was the largest decrease of any other oil exporting nation in the world, and has led to Britain becoming a net importer of crude for the first time in decades, as recognized by the energy policy of the United Kingdom. [1]. The production is expected to fall to one-third of its peak by 2020".

We (the royal global we) wouldn't be staying in Nigeria if plenty of oil was in the midwest US, Australia, Europe, China, ......

In 2006, the major media gave a lot of attention to oil being found far, far below the gulf of Mexico; a location where the technology does not yet exist to extract in any large quantities of oil as is extracted from previous fields. Members here know that was actually a rehash of an earlier story and was recycled news...not an accurate report at all in terms of 'discovery'.

I don't know geology from meteorology, but I do know from observing these kinds of things that oil is not going to remain cheap and plentiful for much longer. The geopolitical and economic consequences are even easier to see.

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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby turmoil » Fri 26 Jan 2007, 22:04:35

no no pstarr, this one needs to be cut up into little pieces and thrown into the wood stove :twisted:
"If you are a real seeker after truth, it's necessary that at least once in your life you doubt all things as far as possible"-Rene Descartes

"When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the truth"-Sherlock Holmes
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Stratovarius » Fri 26 Jan 2007, 23:22:16

First nomination for "Best thread ever" 2007.

:lol:
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 00:13:04

We dont even need Brother Maynards hand grenade for this bunny!

:)


Unfortunately this is the state we are in and I think it's the way it will stay until the real trouble starts. Just a few small pockets here and there inhabited by folks who can see whats coming and do some small things to help prepare. The majority of the population will be blindsided by the idea. It will not meet with acceptance and this in and of itself will create a crippling state further destroying the economy and civilization due to it.

All part of what I call "cultural inertia". We wont be able to turn the ship in time and we are going to hit something much bigger than an iceberg.

Damn the Torpedoes, full speed ahead!
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Zardoz » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 00:42:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Stratovarius', 'F')irst nomination for "Best thread ever" 2007.

:lol:

I second the motion. This is wonderful.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby gego » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 01:07:56

Looks to me like a lopsided debate.

There was that guy from France who agreed that peak oil is a not-in-our-lifetime problem, but then you know the French. The primary tactic of their army is surrender.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Zardoz » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 01:40:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', '.')..There was that guy from France...

...and there's this guy, who our pal oil_rocks would be a real fan of, I'm sure:

Durango scientist to debunk ‘myths’

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')limate change is real, although the consequences aren't as dire as predicted. And the fear of oil production peaking and then plummeting is a figment of the imagination, according to a retired scientist.

Roger Cohen, who spent more than 25 years with ExxonMobil Corp. in various capacities, will speak about global warming tonight at Fort Lewis College and about the world's use of energy Sunday at the DoubleTree Hotel.

Supposedly, ExxonMobil was in the process of dismantling their denial program. This would indicate otherwise, wouldn't it? Now they're trotting out retirees to spread their fresh, steaming steer manure.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 05:21:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ho told you that?


oil production cuts happen all the time. opec has been cutting millions of barrels a day for the past 3 months.

"Oil prices rise on sign of OPEC cuts"

http://www.localnewswatch.com/benton/st ... s&id=49822

Well, but possible spare capacity amounting to few mbpd at best will not be able stop PO for more, than 2-3 years at best.
OPEC cuts could well be a camuflage of PO pending.
We have precedese in this area. US was doing everything to deny their local peak. They were successful only for several years.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ould you list those new forms of energy and provide us with discussion of their impact?

you know them all... hydrogen, ethanol, nuclear, solar, wind, other unknown forms.

1. Hydrogen. Useless. This is not a source, but only a carrier of energy.
2. Ethanol. Minimal impact only. EROEI<1.5 in US. Compete with food production. May help locally (eg in Brazil) and for limited time only (until soil last...).
3. Nuclear. Yes. Can provide basic minimum of electricity, mainly in rich countries. IMO no more than 1000-2000 NPP can be run globally at the same time (concurrently).
4. Solar and wind. Unrealiable. Unable to provide continuous power supply. Will help a little bit.
5. Other forms. Speculative.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he fact is these techologies will be developed and driven by industry when and if they are needed. And the rants and raves of green-peace people will have little effect on that timing.
...So we will still get up to 20% of energy, which we are currently using...provided, that these energy sources will actually get developed to adequate level, what is rather speculation, not fact.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Ayame » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 05:41:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '
')I'm surprised to hear none of you knowns about the cuts opec has been making lately. I would have guess you would be more informed on your favorite topic. OPEC has been desperately trying to keep the price of oil from falling and have twice decided to cut production in an attempt to limit the supplly (basic supply/demand market econmicas at work) They made a big cut in November droping daily oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day, however the price has continued to fall. from its high of about $78/barrel to todays price of around $50/barrel. They have more cuts planned for next month, but so far the price continues to fall because of "Oil Oversupply" WHAT??? you can't be serious!!! yes, actually i am serious. we actually have too much oil on the market right now and the saudi's are getting pissed about it.


Yes the saudi's have been making production cuts (if you take them at their word). Why? because there is a glut at the moment. Stockpiles are increasing week on week. WHy? Because of the unusually mild weather in the US. This is no way invalidates the theory of peak oil. It just illustrates how short sighted and extremely short term the market is when dealing with oil. If there is a short term glut prices crash.....

So what do you think will happen in a couple of years time when depletion of the worlds top producing fields like Ghawar and Cantarell really starts to kick in and China and India have purchased another few million cars? Well week after week US stockpiles will be drawn down and the price will go up and up and up very quickly (the opposite of crashing).

This is in part why I believe there will be a hard crash - because our system is so short-term that it won't see peak oil coming before it's just too late. Market forces will not kick in sufficiently in time for any sort of mitigation.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Karl » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 09:04:36

Ayame wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is in part why I believe there will be a hard crash - because our system is so short-term that it won't see peak oil coming before it's just too late. Market forces will not kick in sufficiently in time for any sort of mitigation.


Toatally agree, the market approach is enough to make you dispair.

Perhaps a good example to cite would be the current situation with UK gas. A few months ago the price was negative, a spot of cold weather the price rockets. All the time the UK production is dropping but this week prices were still not high enough to attract a LNG shipment, US Henry Hub being higher.

The point is that the market as Ayame said only deals with 'today' and today's profit. What happens next year is of little concern, there is always demand destruction............
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby JPL » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 14:27:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'L')ooks to me like a lopsided debate.

There was that guy from France who agreed that peak oil is a not-in-our-lifetime problem, but then you know the French. The primary tactic of their army is surrender.


Hi gego

I ain't saying that at all ;o)

Any 'petrocollapse' will be caused by people more than geology, is what I'm saying. Take any addict's drugs away and the resulting freak-out is more from mental causes than physical.

There are plenty of parts of the world where people live happy, fufilling lives with little or no hydrocarbon useage. We could get by OK as a planet on 20 MBPD - that's still A LOT of oil. Right now people aren't willing to make that jump, that's all.

(But I guess I've hit the 'acceptance' stage... so apologies to all for now being such a serene bast**d...)

JPL
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And we all sing along like before


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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Bas » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 14:44:23

don't mind gego, JPL, he makes it a sport to play for the man instead of the ball.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby JPL » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 16:18:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'd')on't mind gego, JPL, he makes it a sport to play for the man instead of the ball.


Cheers Bas,

Was about to quote this one at him - in revenge for his comments about the French army (grin):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oi ... ing_states

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Countries in decreasing order of oil consumption. (Barrels per day, as of 2003.)

United States 20,033,504
Japan 5,578,386
China 5,550,000
Germany 2,677,443
Russia 2,675,000
India 2,320,000
Canada 2,193,263
South Korea 2,168,128
Brazil 2,100,000
France 2,059,843



JPL :o)
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby gego » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 18:24:03

Hell, I thought the game was well over and it was just time to joke around.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby JPL » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 18:57:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'H')ell, I thought the game was well over and it was just time to joke around.


Hi gego

Yea, no worries mate :o)

BTW I'm not a French national - I just live here 'cos anything's better than Airstrip 1 right now. They'll probably boot me out once the riots, the anarchy and the purges-of-non-nationals come (sigh).

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And we all sing along like before


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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby 128shot » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 19:15:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ancien_Opus', 'D')rill deeper! Deep does not equal more oil.

The closer you get to the mantle the higher the temperature. This is why natural gas deposits are found deep but seldom oil. Oil is broken down to its most simple molecular components under heat and pressure ending up as natural gas.


one you get deep enough you finally have a new source of energy all together, geothermal. In the light of this, if you can actually drill that deep, I would imagine this energy would be relatively cheap, and is really limitless as long as the earths core doesn't stop producing heat (in reality, thats 4 billion years worth of energy)


I believe this would make hydrogen fuels possible, due to the amount of extremely cheap energy.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby JPL » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 20:05:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ancien_Opus', 'D')rill deeper! Deep does not equal more oil.

The closer you get to the mantle the higher the temperature. This is why natural gas deposits are found deep but seldom oil. Oil is broken down to its most simple molecular components under heat and pressure ending up as natural gas.


one you get deep enough you finally have a new source of energy all together, geothermal. In the light of this, if you can actually drill that deep, I would imagine this energy would be relatively cheap, and is really limitless as long as the earths core doesn't stop producing heat (in reality, thats 4 billion years worth of energy)


I believe this would make hydrogen fuels possible, due to the amount of extremely cheap energy.


Strangely enough, I was involved with one of these projects about 20 years ago. The college I was attached to was drilling into what we called at the time ' The biggest Nuclear Reactor in the World'.

It was a big granite mass in Cornwall (UK) that was about 10 miles on a side, and so full of naturally-reacting fissile Uranium that the temperature deep underground was enough to turn deep-injected water into super-heated steam 'instantly'.

We had one of the biggest (non-govt) computers in Europe to do the modelling and two bore-holes in the ground, down one we pumped water, out of the other got steam at high pressure.

There was - I won't beat about the bush here - enough theoretical energy down there to supply a large part of the UK's annual consumption for, basically, for-ever.

It was certainly the best geothermal site in Europe and possibly the best in the world.

Unfortunately there were problems.

We were basically learning as we went along and although we had figured out that the best way to facilitate water > steam flow between the two holes was to detonate explosives deep underground, we hadn't figured out which ways the rock would fracture. It DID fracture all right - but mainly outward from the holes. So you were pumping water down that wouldn't come up again. And of course all that high-pressure steam started to make the leakage fractures worse.

And also we were working at greater depths and pressures than anyone else had done in that type of rock so the learning curve just got worse and worse.

At the end, the project failed, not through lack of funding, time, or enthusiasm but simply because the geology, and the engineering, were beyond us.

JPL
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