[0mar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'T')hink about it, many people may have heard at one time or another that the Mayan Calendar ends 2012. (I don't know for a fact that it does, or did, but if not, then its Coast to Coast type folklore) And furthermore many people know about the Mayans' little problems with resources and how it did them in. So there is a SUBCONSCIOUS fear of that year as a choice because the two ideas link up subliminally.

[Guest]

The world has used 850 billion barrels of oil so far.
World remaining - proven reserves are estimated at 1 300 billion barrels.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html

Even if reserves in Saudi Arabia are exagerated, I dont think we will be hitting peak for another 200 billion barrels or 6 years - and this is without new discoveries, and without probable reserves taken into account.

Thus I would guess we are closer to ten years from the peak.

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Disgusted', 'T')he question is downright stupid.

Let's imagine that peak oil occurs in 2008, according to Campbell's predictions. This does not mean we are in Campbell's soup. all it means that if the 2008 production is n bbl, then 2009 will produce, say, 0.99n bbl, 2010 0.98 bbl 2011 0.97 bbl and so on. These changes are negligible with respect to random variations of the economy. Why, the DJ index can change that much, and more in a single day! The effect will be negligible in the medium term, as other methods come on line.

The Kookies, Fruitcakes and Idiots' brigade on this forum fondly imagines that the production in 2009 will be 0.01n, not 0.99n.

[Guest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', '
')

...
Societies reaction to this smooth and geologically defined event will be anything but smooth. As the system starts to deteriorate I don't think the infrastructure is going to survive the gradual decline. I mean, war in the Middle East will seriously effect the on going (albeit declining) production. Collapsed dollar will be a light switch like event, causing company failures, job losses etc over a period of months not years.
...

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Just my 0.2 cents. I think any economic solution was lost. it might have been possible to buy the supplies we need to transition smoothly instead of provoking a crash.

However, we have the biggest oil user using a ton of oil just to obtain a future supply that is probably close to its natural decline. As well, all these threats and posturing are causing Iran to think its next (which it probably is) and considering the amount of oil they are using in their war games and maneuvers to effect a positive deterrent, this will further drive down future stocks. This is causing everyone over there to stock pile and ensure they aren't "next". (this isn't taking into account the al-quada trying to disrupt the oil flow, guerrilla warfare is a lot easier to affect than to defend).

The economy seems unalterably linked to the stock market. we've all seen how speculation creates huge waves and dips. if major players are dumping stocks and saying that the US is unable to keep up the growth because its artifically inflated, then that alone could cause a collapse. Some are speculating that the Japanese buying of bonds etc is the only thing keeping the US afloat right now, if this trend reverses it could be disasterous. (otherwise they might soon own the US)

The value of the dollar is based on oil. if oil producers switch to the euro (which is what saddam was threatening to do before they took him down) that means that the value of the dollar will go down. This will further cause a down turn in the economy.

I vote for an economic downturn by no later than 2012. the only safety net or cushioning i see, is if there is a substantial reinvestment in infrastructure. get manufacturing to come home to roost on the american doorstep so they still have products and necessaries produced at home instead of all the outsourcing they've been doing to increase profits.

[tmazanec1]

I chose impossible to predict.
Fertility is actually dropping rapidly, and many in the world have a good lifestyle with less energy use than we are used to. Thus the population explosion seems to be ending naturally, and the potential to rein in demand is there. Meanwhile, the prospect of a "nano-hydrogen" economy is on the horizon, and with molecular manufacturing we can get the infrastructure changed more quickly. This is the good news.
The bad news is that we will hit PO very soon, if we haven't already, promising lower standards of living for at least awhile and the accompanying social strains. This would normally produce total war at least. But we now have weapons which even a politician can understand will mean the end of his(her) life if they are ever used, not just some grunt in in trenches. I gain hope that the USSR imploded economically and politically without many deaths, when they could have, for example, "blackmailed" the world (or at least America) into keeping them afloat using their nukes.
The bottom line is that we are in a race to a sustainable nanotech society. We will have a very painful home stretch, featuring at least another Great Depression. If we get the new technologies in place before society breaks completely or some idiot is forced to push the Button, we survive. If not, we Fall completely. I think there is no middle ground, and I feel it is too close to call now.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hink about it, many people may have heard at one time or another that the Mayan Calendar ends 2012

[PenultimateManStanding]

So we fill the Senate (which by the way means a place for old men) up with women. Is that what they do? wind up the Mayan clock?

[mindfarkk]

so what does that make it, a Femate?

[PenultimateManStanding]

Not sure, but I guess i'll have to. We're talking about old women which, believe or not in Latin is: anus See what I mean? We'll have to call it the anusate or something. Maybe Domus can help us out here.

[PenultimateManStanding]

Some clarification on pronunciation: its not said "AY nus ate" its "AHN usit" But even though it still presents problems. I once taught Kepler's Laws of planetary physics to a couple of high school senior physics classes. Everytime the orbit of Uranus came up and I had to say "Uranus" the kids all snickered. I tried using both pronunciations of the planet's name but it didn't make any difference. I finally decided that I had to do the calculations myself and use Neptune instead. Our culture is infested with sexual innuendo everywhich way you turn! Maybe we could come up with a Greek alternative for our Old Womens' Political assembly.

[Falconoffury]

It's not all speculation. Certain people and organizations are able to predict the future using simple math based upon past trends. We know how much oil we had been using, and we have a good idea at what is still recoverable. We are on peak right now. We won't realize we have passed peak until a few years after. We are riding the plateau.

If there was a crash in the money system soon, we would never fully recover. Oil decline is rather slow yearly, but we won't have the energy increase required for an economic recovery. The world economy is based upon growth. Growth of people, energy, goods and services. The next major recession could be the ultimate slow, painful decline of the world economy.

One need only look at one of the many reputable websites for numbers such as Hubbert's or ASPO. We are on the plateau now. It's only a few years before the economy starts its irreversible decline. Check this out.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic3609-0-asc-0.html