[IslandCrow]

As I view the economy of energy saving alternatives I realise that many of them have a long payback period. In my long-term planning models I have assumed that on average oil prices will rise more than electricity prices. Do you agree with this assumption?

My reasoning behind this is that:
a) energy prices are basically tied to each other (so if the cost of one type of energy rises then another energy costs would rise)
b) While oil is running out, at least here in Finland electricity has a large component coming from water power, and another from nuclear, and another large section from biomass (peat and wood chips) and neither of these will run out as soon as I expect oil to run out. So electricty will not have the full financial effects of the depletion to push it up as high as oil.

[aahala]

There isn't much corrolation in the US.

Before the oil crunch in the late 70s, oil was the second largest
component of electrical production here, about 16%, but dropped
sharply thereafter.

In 2005 and for years before, it's only about 3% of total US
oil consumption and a similar percent of electrical portion. The
2006 percent is much lower still, due the relatively high price.
The final 2006 figures aren't in yet, before seems to be about 1.5%.

[NeoPeasant]

I think the cost of electricity will track the cost of oil a lot more closely than people think. If it ever becomes cheaper to run a fixed application on electricity rather than natural gas, the shift in demand from gas to electricity will be almost immediate.
Eventually rising oil prices will make coal to liquid more viable, which will raise the price of the main fuel for electrical generation.

This is very bad news for those who imagine a future filled with electric cars. Personal automobility was made possible by a super-abundant and easily wasted energy source. There will never be another such source.

[MrMambo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', '
')This is very bad news for those who imagine a future filled with electric cars. Personal automobility was made possible by a super-abundant and easily wasted energy source. There will never be another such source.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IslandCrow', 'A')s I view the economy of energy saving alternatives I realise that many of them have a long payback period. In my long-term planning models I have assumed that on average oil prices will rise more than electricity prices. Do you agree with this assumption?
...

[max_power29]

The corrolation was pretty much immediate when california had its massive electricity shortage crises a few years ago.

[MrBill]

You will get a much stronger correlation between coal (darks) and nat gas (sparks) for calculating the price of electricity.

Energy prices may be positively correlated as middle distillate crude can be made into diesel for transport fuel or heating oil. Heating oil is a substitute for nat gas in the heating complex for example. But the link is stronger between coal and nat gas for electricity, which compete with wind, solar, geo and nuclear power in some grids.

The larger the grid the more choices to choose the least cost formulation of electricity generation. Keeping in mind that base power is considered always on while peak power is added and taken away based on expectations of immediate demand. They are not mutually exclusive, but start-up times may vary between coal and natural gas for example.