[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith the 30% fall in the price of oil to US$50 a barrel comes the inevitable global ideological free for all over the causes, impacts and general significance of the decline. The scale of the decline pretty much puts peak oil theorists out of commission, especially since the real price of oil in constant dollars is now lower than it was through much of the 1980s--hardly what you would expect in a world allegedly heading into an oil supply crisis.

[dissident]

The National Post and other rags will have nothing to say this summer when the prices are back to the $80 range. The current market euphoria based on oil stock numbers is the thing that is going to be out of commission. Oil stocks do not reflect new supply but the unusually warm winter in North America and Europe.

I could be wrong, maybe by summer there will be a recession in the US and other developed countries. This would be the analogue of the warm winter weather that leads to suppressed demand.

The main stream media routinely fails miserably to produce substantial reporting. Such articles as this are a typical assortment of non sequitur claims and inane opinion posing as fact. Like you say PO is not merely a price theory. From some interesting empirical price functions for depleting commodities posted by Khebab at TheOilDrum, prices do not increase inversely to the supply but oscillate wildly.

[joewp]

Thanks Dante, I needed a laugh. I chuckled through that NP article, and this really made me laugh in the WSJ:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ndustrialized nations' demand tiptoed into negative territory in 2002, but the dip was so slight that it registered as flat.

[DantesPeak]

I agree with dissident. These types of articles mix up supply, demand and consumption.

Isn't supply a limiting factor for demand? For example, couldn't consumption be slightly down because 2006 oil production was slightly down?

Also demand and consumption are not the same thing. Although very closely related, in 2005, there was an effort to build reserves in OECD nations, which added to demand (but not consumption), but in 2006 nothing was added to the SPR and a slight destocking of IEA reserves occurred. Altogether, adjusting for inventory changes, OECD consumption went down very little – if at all (can't say for sure because I have not seen final IEA 2006 figures).

[mekrob]

Thanks. I think that from now on (and retroactively), I'm going to start remembering the names of the jackasses that write these articles. Then when PO hits and/or prices shoot through the roof, I'm gonna email them non-stop about their brilliance and ask for more advice.

I don't believe these people to be geniuses, making a living from hiding the truth on purpose, rather they are idiots who are too arrogant to realize the filth they spew. I'll make sure (and I hope you do as well) they know the true stupidity of their existence and why a perfect God could not be in existence if It creates such a monstrosity such as these journalists.

[Merlin]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From the Mogambo Guru:

Bloomberg reports that "Crude oil fell below $52 a barrel for the first time in 19 months after a report showed that U.S. fuel consumption plunged to the lowest since April 2004." I am somewhat confused by the phrase "U.S. fuel consumption plunged", as they go right on to say "Implied demand for distillate fuel averaged 4.3 million barrels a day over the four weeks to Jan. 5, up 1.3 percent from a year earlier." Up!


Furthermore, "Gasoline use averaged 9.3 million barrels a day, up 0.5 percent from 2006." Up again!"


http://www.freemarketnews.com/Analys...d=102&nid=6761

[NEOPO]

This is just one of many reasons not to cry peak simply because we may have crossed a new price threshold.
$100 barrel oil does not confirm peak and $10 a barrel oil does not debunk it.

I have noticed supposed "peakers" losing heart in their "dream" because the price is stagnating
Is it any surprise that the hired media guns or even those who simply hate the thought of adjusting their cozy lifestyle because of some geological inconvenience would perpetuate a lower price as some sort of "proof" against peak?

Of course not and most of us should be very use to it by now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')loomberg reports that "Crude oil fell below $52 a barrel for the first time in 19 months after a report showed that U.S. fuel consumption plunged to the lowest since April 2004." I am somewhat confused by the phrase "U.S. fuel consumption plunged", as they go right on to say "Implied demand for distillate fuel averaged 4.3 million barrels a day over the four weeks to Jan. 5, up 1.3 percent from a year earlier." Up!

[Ayame]

As we enter the event horizon major price fluctuations are to be expected.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')"U.S. fuel consumption plunged"

[LateGreatPlanetEarth]

here's a view from the middle east.

"But if you want to know where to invest in the energy sector, study Abdallah Jum'ah and not Kenneth Deffeyes. In building his case against peak oil, the Aramco executive tells investors where to make a profit in the years ahead.
Ask how, not where So, for example, study how Abdallah Jum'ah gets to that comforting figure of 4.7 trillion barrels of producible oil - enough to last 140 years.
About 1.2 trillion barrels represent current supply recoverable with conventional current technologies.
About 1 trillion barrels will come from newly discovered fields found by the application of new technologies.
About 1 trillion barrels come from higher recovery rates from existing fields thanks to new technologies.
About 1.5 trillion barrels will come from nonconventional sources such as Canada's oil sands that require new technology and massive new infrastructure.
See a theme behind those numbers? Technology. Technology. Technology. Technology".
http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/investi ... id=1243362

[katkinkate]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LateGreatPlanetEarth', 'h')ere's a view from the middle east.

"But if you want to know where to invest in the energy sector, study Abdallah Jum'ah and not Kenneth Deffeyes. In building his case against peak oil, the Aramco executive tells investors where to make a profit in the years ahead.
Ask how, not where So, for example, study how Abdallah Jum'ah gets to that comforting figure of 4.7 trillion barrels of producible oil - enough to last 140 years.
About 1.2 trillion barrels represent current supply recoverable with conventional current technologies.
About 1 trillion barrels will come from newly discovered fields found by the application of new technologies.
About 1 trillion barrels come from higher recovery rates from existing fields thanks to new technologies.
About 1.5 trillion barrels will come from nonconventional sources such as Canada's oil sands that require new technology and massive new infrastructure.
See a theme behind those numbers? Technology. Technology. Technology. Technology".
http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/investi ... id=1243362

[Windmills]

Price changes are not going to debunk peak oil. At the heart of peak oil theory is the finite nature (in our lifetimes, which is all that matters) of oil. Price swings don't indicate that oil has suddenly become infinite, which is what would be required.

[gg3]

The author of that article is simply an idiot, of the type who believes he is flying as he flaps his arms while sailing over the edge of a cliff.

[mel1962]

Hmmm . . . Peak Oil

Greatest Produciton was last year at 86 million b/day . . .

Yet price has dropped to $50 . . .

Common Sense says there is no oil shortage . . . Hmmm

Yep, that's it Peak Oil is over! Yipee!

No, wait a minute, it could be a supply and demand thing . . .

Hmmm . . . production is stagnate, than that means demand is down????

Maybe, we are looking at a recession . . . Yikes, welcome back peak oil!

[Denny]

Of course, the Peak oil story is just a theory. Cigarettes and cancer is a theory. Global warming is a theory.

This story about BP having recorded six straight years of declining production is just a....uh, oh! ITS A FACT!

See BP Records six declining years

[Revi]

Everything is fine again. Forget peak oil. We'll go right back to prosperity now. Time to buy that new Hummer. Buy two. Or a great big McMansion. Energy prices are down. They'll never go back up again. Or will they...