by Rafa » Tue 16 Jan 2007, 15:35:35
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'O')r will oil firms create there own militant force with exmarines/seals and use force to keep status quo? Wait...they could just use the us military like in Iraq

WMD's in Honduras? u betcha!
They probably would love to do so.
But the ability to do it is another thing.
And the situation is very different of what it was in Irak.
First of all, nobody will ever be as stupid again as to accept disarming.
The UNO won't be fooled again so easily.
Then, there doens't exist big heinous cultural or religious divisions between latinamericans for an invader to exploit; to the contrary, there is currently a big and growing move towards unity.
Irak was absolutely isolated, not only internationally, but even from its neirghbours; in Latin America there is a growing group of very close allies (including military alliances), making a hard kernel, and even more countries that, while not so closely tied, have more advantages to side with them than with the USA (that is, there is no chance that the OEA would favour a military intervention, for example).
Last, there was in Latin America active guerrillas during all the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s (and still now in Colombia); a lot of those guerrillas were never defeated (they just signed peace to end war but weren't militarly defeated), I mean, there is a sizeable amount of people with very high military skills; there are probably weapons stocks hidden somewhere too. Currently they favour political means (elections); but if a foreign invasion comes to tell them that political way is not possible, they could reactivate; it won't be anything like Irak with a few 2-4 invasors dead a day; but more like Vietnam or worse, like 20 or more dead a day. Note also that the growing feeling of unity, of being a same nation, also means that, contrary to the 1970s-1980s guerrillas, they won't stop at national boundaries; no matter which country would be invaded, people from all Latin America will came to fight.
And don't forget too that there are a lot of people with strong ties with Latin America in the United States, and in the army; how would they feel do you think?
To sum it up: a military action against a latinamerican country would be even much worst than a military action against Iran (which would already be a very stupid move). Of all the possible things it would be the most self-destructing for the United States to do.
I don't think it will happen.
Well, I HOPE it won't happen (for everybody's good).