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Okay...I'm convinced...

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby NEOPO » Thu 04 Jan 2007, 15:15:37

You may choose to disbelieve this but I have read almost all if not all of your posts Fatheroftwo.

In one word - Rationalization.
You seemed to pass denial very quickly and thats a good thing but it seems that you have been stuck in rationalization mode since.

Its okay really and you are definately not alone.
I thought you might want to know what I think after reading your posts even though many people do not care for my opinion ;-)
Not trying to insult you in any way so please do not take it like that.
It is easier to enslave a people that wish to remain free then it is to free a people who wish to remain enslaved.
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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Fri 05 Jan 2007, 11:43:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', '
')
Funny as a year ago Reserve growth ruled and there was no peak in sight......


Actually a year ago I was pointing out that an infrastructure Peak really wouldn't look any different than a real Peak, and that the two ought not to be confused.

And after more than a year of TERRIBLE depletion rates, WILD demand increases...what do we have? Why, the cheapest oil in the last 18 months, good inventories, and OPEC trying to find a way to put a floor under the price of oil before it gets to $40.

Cheaper oil the result of Peak? Bring on some more Peak! I want $10 crude again and if more Peak is what it takes..bring it on baby!
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Fri 05 Jan 2007, 11:47:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', '
')
***************************************************

I see the problem now. Your snowplow crews are incompetent. I live in an area that gets those storms fairly often. The roads are plowed clean within hours, and its business as usual the next day.

***************************************************



A possibility. We've had, oh, 55 inches of snow or so in the last 2 weeks? Just yesterday some of the intersections were actually down to asphalt. But then it was nearly 60F as well.

We're getting another foot or two today. And nearly 1 week after the last storm, cattle and people are having to be fed via air drops from the national guard. Those pesky plow drivers must not want to do their jobs at ALL in cattle country.
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby zoidberg » Fri 12 Jan 2007, 19:10:31

RGR: You never really addressed the most pertinent point that buying an old used 4wd vehicle would be much more energy efficient, because your not counting construction costs in your new vehicle purchase in your gas savings, which are not likely to be a great as the Ford brochure would make out(with what some people think are overrated mileage estimates).

Generally I am sympathetic to your arguments, but its hard to see the green behind consuming ever more natural resources when less expensive alternatives do exist. Especially if its utility is only for occasional snow storms.
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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Sat 13 Jan 2007, 21:36:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', 'R')GR:
Generally I am sympathetic to your arguments, but its hard to see the green behind consuming ever more natural resources when less expensive alternatives do exist. Especially if its utility is only for occasional snow storms.


There is no "green" in consuming depletable natural resources, from a technical point of view. There are really only "shades" of non green.

For example, living in a mud hut, trapping animals for food with wooden implements, is all well and good for making a minimal "green" impact, but I seriously doubt if even a diehard treehugger has this scenario in mind when they think about what "greeen" really means.

In my case, knowing more than a little about project economics, I sat down and did a thorough cost/benefit analysis and decided it would be cheaper ( or "better" ) in the long haul to buy something else.

And then I acted as the consumate American consumer and did what I wanted instead of what might be considered "best" under a particular scenario ( be it green, economic, consideration of recycling, whatever ).

Now, if the "encouragement" in the form of economics or governmental encouragement were strong enough, I can honestly say it would have altered my decision. But until people, and Americans in particularly, become serious about wanting to encourage or discourage certain types of behavior, then pretty much stuff will just happen. At least under Florida slides under the waves and it becomes obvious what types of effects humans are causing by not paying attention to moderately important things.
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby zoidberg » Sat 13 Jan 2007, 23:32:36

The point though is that you dont need the SUV 4wd capabilities for everyday use though - if your number 1 priority was to help save the earth you would'nt be provoking more production by buying new things, you'd use and repair/maintain old things as much as possible.



Did you have an old 4wd drive vehicle from before? Was it not working? If you didnt have it before why do you need an SUV now? Heck do you have friends/neighbours with such snow driving capabilities to help you out when your snowed in? You mentioned you have another truck(A Titan was it) with a really big engine and 4wd capability. How much transportation do you need?

I love SUV's myself. I like the way they look and I like driving them, so I'm certainly happy for you that you have a nice new vehicle to play with. I just dont think it warrants a post proclaiming how your saving the world by saving gasoline. Will it conserve more gas than a non-hybrid? Sure. Will it save enough to offset the cost of building another vehicle? I think so, but its a close call since a non plug in hybrid is obviously a stopgap measure awaiting a plug in diesel one, imho, so this gas friendly purchase, whose necessity is questionable, may be ill timed. If you end up buying another brand new vehicle in a few years with the appropriate feature set well then you've shot yourself in the foot. (feel free to say I told you so if this vehicle actually does stay in service long enough to make it worthwhile)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')And then I acted as the consumate American consumer and did what I wanted instead of what might be considered "best" under a particular scenario ( be it green, economic, consideration of recycling, whatever ).

That about sums it up I think, you the consumer did what you wanted. Not what you needed to to, or what was best in other context except for yourself. And you may have included owning a new vehicle that you could brag about as being what you wanted. Not trying to be harsh, just pointing it out. Lots of people are like that.
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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Sun 14 Jan 2007, 02:14:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', 'T')he point though is that you dont need the SUV 4wd capabilities for everyday use though - if your number 1 priority was to help save the earth you would'nt be provoking more production by buying new things, you'd use and repair/maintain old things as much as possible.


This makes perfect sense. And you are right, I don't need a 4X4 for everyday use, matter of fact, I park it and ride a motorcycle once the good weather returns. And my #1 priority isn't to help save the earth, so that isn't a consideration at all, unless the basic economics of life and saving the earth happen to run in the same direction.

It isn't difficult to take your statement to the next level. How many Americans "need" an SUV in any way, shape or form? Very few I imagine. And lots don't even "need" a car.

But if we Americans weren't so wildly wasteful, we wouldn't be Americans anymore. Its crazy when something so stupid is a nationally defining characteristic.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', '
')A) Did you have an old 4wd drive vehicle from before?
B) Was it not working?
C)If you didnt have it before why do you need an SUV now?
D)Heck do you have friends/neighbours with such snow driving capabilities to help you out when your snowed in?
E) You mentioned you have another truck(A Titan was it) with a really big engine and 4wd capability. How much transportation do you need?

A) Yes...but I didn't trade one in on this one, traded in a V8 RWD coupe which wasn't getting used much.
B) It was working fine. Just not often enough to justify its existence.
C) I don't need an SUV ever considering the size of my pickup. But as the winter bad weather car, its better to have AWD than not.
D) Sure. We all have pickups and SUV's. But why hassle them for a ride to work when I could snowshoe, skii, or bicycle or walk when the weather is decent?
E) As much as I want and/or can afford. 5 motor vehicles for 2 adult drivers is a 2.5/1 ratio? When I had 6 motorcycles in the garage and 3 cars it was 4.5/1. I've been getting better over the years, plus I don't have a garage dedicated to just toys anymore, so less space means fewer vehicles inside, particularly motorcycles.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', '
')I love SUV's myself. I like the way they look and I like driving them, so I'm certainly happy for you that you have a nice new vehicle to play with.


I'm not particular to types of vehicles, but SUV's are okay. And the count over the past 45 days has been 3 new ( 2 new, 1 used )vehicles, not just 1. And the cheapest of the bunch is the best, but I am partial to 2 wheelers.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', '
')
I just dont think it warrants a post proclaiming how your saving the world by saving gasoline.


Considering some of the other jackass comments around here, some of which would lead the readers to believe that a prescriptions for lithium must be a requirement to post on the forum, I think mine was at least coherent and reasonable, let alone a step in the right direction.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', '
') If you end up buying another brand new vehicle in a few years with the appropriate feature set well then you've shot yourself in the foot. (feel free to say I told you so if this vehicle actually does stay in service long enough to make it worthwhile)


None of my vehicles stick around longer than a few years, and I am currently waiting for Honda to arrive with a nice diesel in something the size of their Accord/Civic. When that arrives, I'll sell off the hybrid and get that. Now, if a PHEV shows up first, I'll go for that instead. But I think the diesel will be a better fit for my fleet in the near term, which is until I can pry the wife out of her sedan or find something better which is also more efficient.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')And then I acted as the consumate American consumer and did what I wanted instead of what might be considered "best" under a particular scenario ( be it green, economic, consideration of recycling, whatever ).

That about sums it up I think, you the consumer did what you wanted. Not what you needed to to, or what was best in other context except for yourself.


Ain't the science of greed and incompetence grand? Its why I've come to the conclusion that Americans will never voluntarily give up their silly lifestyle, they will require direct and nonstop pressure to something which matters, their pocketbook, to change. Whether its Florida becoming a "scuba diving on the ruins of Miami" theme tour, or nosebleed priced gasoline...Americans aren't going to DO something until the market forces them to make some hard choices.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', '
')And you may have included owning a new vehicle that you could brag about as being what you wanted. Not trying to be harsh, just pointing it out. Lots of people are like that.

I'm not sure of what you mean. Around here a hybrid should give me huge street cred! And I haven't purchased a vehicle I "needed" since my sophomore year in college...everything since then has been buying what I wanted. It just happens that a hybrid works for me in its capacity as a "gee when the weathers bad I don't want to bash in the front of the family sedan on the snow piles".
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby futuretrip » Sun 14 Jan 2007, 04:25:09

So I am also convinced that I have to become negative in order to survive attacks on this board, last time i posted (year ago?), got dumped by suggesting largescale RE (our only hope unless you believe in the rapture). It should be obvious to just about anyone who isn't an idiot, that we will face a rather troublesome post oil crisis, infact, we (silly Americans) could be forcing WW3 by demanding large oil contracts from our invasion of weaker countries. What does the other super powers think of foreign (US)bases practicly right next door. This is a very recent thought (cause I'm a silly American who doesn't know noth'n) and will search it, meanwhile, don't bother with any of the "news". Perhaps the ragging is true because I have done some research on RE. Our government will do anything to not promote RE. They use radar blips as an excuse not to build wind farms, they say they promote "cheap" concentrating solar, hasn't happened yet (The raggers say "No dah"), but like the poster many ragged upon, I still feel like not giving up, afterall, life is given to us somehow for us to make better or worst. Now, I'm convinced that unless ALL AMERICANS invest in RE, Almost all Americans will fall into the dark age. and when america falls...


Oh, check this out...
http://www.republic-news.org/archive/15 ... in_oil.htm
Provincial and national policy should acknowledge and prepare for the growing risks of US take-over

This is WHY we are called silly americans, we don't realize while we're glued to the TV that our energy usage is troubling planetwide!

What can I do? simply type on this thing that is about 20 times more complicated than most RE (renewable energy) strategies. RE is LOW TECH, it is VERY FEASABLE given the american dollars (which may not be the best but is still good). Hell, I think everbody should (somehow) invest "just" 500 bucks a year X 100,000,000 households = 50 Billion (that's 50 giga-watts of wind capacity), Energy storage...no brainer... batteries, better yet super capacitors, been around almost a hundred years! OK, cut the capacity factor down to a quarter and include costs of E storage, What, a third? So now we have about 15 gig capacity, or roughly the same output as 15 coal powered plants. Over twenty years, along with (corporate?) other investments and re-investments from dividends (nope, we'd get ripped again, uh) We just might have enough energy to counter this PO thing IF we silly americans were to actually reduce our energy source, use windows for heat in day, wood at night, ect. Wheew

What can I do? noth'n cause I'm too busy trying to keep up with all the silly A laws, (insurance, ect) So I can't even afford to buy a smaller car... Managed to get the little 200 dualsport though, it's fun and saves alot of gas!

Oh, and the "stop grocery bags" silliness is BS (too trivial) along with "printed on recycle paper" (uses more energy). For those of you ragging this thread, and others who actually care enough to try to do something about this most important of ALL issues, go to hell
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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Sun 14 Jan 2007, 12:49:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('futuretrip', '
')What can I do? noth'n cause I'm too busy trying to keep up with all the silly A laws, (insurance, ect) So I can't even afford to buy a smaller car... Managed to get the little 200 dualsport though, it's fun and saves alot of gas!


Yeah baby! The more two wheelers out there, the better! Maybe we should start our own peak board, something like "Doomer Bikers" or some such...save the world through the superior conservation available through non-caging activities ( no point in leaving out the trike guys ).

Most of the heavy duty tree-huggery concepts are as silly as the zero point energy guys I figure...vegetarians more interested in convincing the world that a decent steak is somehow not normal, and Peak oil is just a nice excuse to force everyone in their direction.

The beginnings are when Tesla drivers just toasting Corvette drivers at redlights...myself, I figure when they start racing EV's at Indy, we'll know then that it won't be much of an issue anymore.

The oil age has in large part been defined by cars in America, when those cars aren't dependant on oil anymore, I don't think anyone will much notice, we'll keep using our EV's for the same basic things, with a diesel "kicker" when we take cross country trips, kids will still decorate their EV's in silly ways, they'll be raced away from stoplights all across America, and crash and kill their occupants, people will drive them drunk, and kill others in their EV's apon impact, etc etc.

I'll still be on a motorcycle spewing greenhouse gases ( albeit in small amounts compared to the standard cage ) just because I like them.
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby zoidberg » Sun 14 Jan 2007, 15:48:13

RGR: As long as your aware of what your doing its all good. As for the lithium requirement around here, well I hope that never happens. Its not many places where not only can I get somewhat intelligent conversation about new energy sources, or new types of vehicles and of course oil depletion, but I can get my doomer fix of end of the world scenarios. Its the general level of craziness and zealotry around here that keeps me coming back.

And thats the other thing because I first learned about peak oil through the life after the oil crash site. I just about fell over while reading through there. A quick google search brought me here and here I've stuck. Because after reading through these forums about new ideas, and possibilities for scalability, I now know life definitely will change, but its not going to a change back to the early 1800's. And its certainly not going to change right after the peak either. So whenever I get nervous I read some of the 'if it doesnt completely replace oil in 2 months its doomed' posts and see how conservation, new battery technologies, advances in renewables and even messy demand destruction is always overlooked or minimized. Its good for defining the boundaries of the problem because if theres even a slight flaw to a new energy technology or conservation strategy, the good folks here are all over it because it verifies their belief we're all doomed. Or if its ignored I know its onto something. I cant recall a doomer saying, well now thats a good point if its not a doomerish point.
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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 14 Jan 2007, 17:18:57

Nah, futuretrip, you don't have to "become negative" I'm not negative, I'm a naive dreamer, and I'm still here. :) Yeah, people don't agree with me a lot of the time and I get called names, but, that's part of the messageboard experience.

Why give up? There's so much we can do! :-D
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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Sun 14 Jan 2007, 21:14:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', 'R')GR: As long as your aware of what your doing its all good.


I've been aware of whats going on for as long as some of these Johnny Come Lately's have been alive. I designed a career just WAITING for another energy crisis/shock/shortage.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', '
')
And thats the other thing because I first learned about peak oil through the life after the oil crash site. I just about fell over while reading through there.


Yeah, I was laughing that hard the time first time I read through some of their stuff as well. But they are a reasonable band of happy Doomers, pretty heavily loaded towards anti-politics and make believe economic theory, but that appears pretty standard even between Doomer clans.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', '
')
whenever I get nervous I read some of the 'if it doesnt completely replace oil in 2 months its doomed' posts and see how conservation, new battery technologies, advances in renewables and even messy demand destruction is always overlooked or minimized.


Well, you've at least latched onto the obvious. I've noticed the same things. I mean think about it, people around here are equating PO with peak energy as though they are synonymous, I get a giggle out of that one every time I see it. Talk about reaching for the moon from the height of the kitchen table.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', '
')Its good for defining the boundaries of the problem because if theres even a slight flaw to a new energy technology or conservation strategy, the good folks here are all over it because it verifies their belief we're all doomed. Or if its ignored I know its onto something. I cant recall a doomer saying, well now thats a good point if its not a doomerish point.


There is nothing inherently wrong with healthy skepticism. Doomerism is something else altogether, psychologically speaking. But don't quote me, this is still a working hypothesis on my part, and is not yet established fact.
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby Revi » Sun 14 Jan 2007, 23:45:03

Whether you'll feel consequences from the peak depends on where you are. In Venezuela and Iran people are driving around on 35 cent a gallon gasoline. In other nearby countries people are barely scrounging enough kerosene to light a lamp or two. The peak is here, but that is just the crest of the wave. The depression started in 1929, but it didn't hit bottom until 1933 or so. We'll see things happening soon enough.

We're just basking in the warmth of what is left of the economy. Gas is back to $2. Happy days are here again!

I have a funny feeling that we're just in the calm before the storm.
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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby futuretrip » Mon 15 Jan 2007, 01:53:41

Doomsday'ism is enough to keep me from succumbing to the false (everything is OK) attitude, we can overcome the negativity of the psycological premise of said doomsayism, if only we think there is a hope, or know that there is a positive solution for the billions, (myself, and children incuded). therefore, it provides a sirius motivational effort beyond yuppy status. We are indeed on the brink. (And I was on the brink last night because I watched "the alternative news" about the towers in NY). All I know is that we need at least a hundred fold increase in renewables or else reality will flounder.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dgbLQPUjUU

Thanks,
P.S. "futuretrip" is an old "spacebuff" ID from younger years, Now, I realize that fireofenergy would be a more appropiate name for me.
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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby JPL » Wed 17 Jan 2007, 19:42:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('futuretrip', 'A')ll I know is that we need at least a hundred fold increase in renewables or else reality will flounder.


Huh? Try conservation. The so-called 'First' world uses TOO MUCH energy right now to even do stupid, obvious things like grow and cook a meal - that's the core problem.

Finding more oil and gas would NOT save 'reality' from being something that it, obviously, is not. Go figure the rest...

JPL
Nothing ever happens, nothing happens at all
The needle returns to the start of the song
And we all sing along like before


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Re: Okay...I'm convinced...

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 17 Jan 2007, 20:51:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', 'T')he so-called 'First' world uses TOO MUCH energy right now to even do stupid, obvious things like grow and cook a meal - that's the core problem.



I agree.
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