[diamondlady1025]

Hi All!

Been reading alot about the dollar, exporting, china, and such all of the stuff here on this forum and I was just wondering what everyone's thoughts are on when do you see the US or the world heading for economic collapse, where there is nothing being imported from China anymore, the dollar going bye bye and such? And how long do you think it will last? and how do you see it resolving itself?

Just wondering what everyone's thoughts are?

Diamondlady

[perdition79]

This thread reads like bait for some XXX-rated doomer porn.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('perdition79', 'T')his thread reads like bait for some XXX-rated doomer porn.

[MrBill]

It depends on whether you readThe Mogambo Guru or Brad Setser basically.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y calculations are rough, but the bottom line is crystal clear – 2006 was another good year for the US. Its $900b or so in borrowing from the rest of the world will largely be offset by the increase in value of existing US investment abroad. Scratch that. Insert “$600-700b in net borrowing from the rest of the world – including least $300b and probably far more from central banks and oil funds -- and $200-300b (on current trends) in mysterious financing from errors and omissions will be more than offset by the increase in value of existing US investment abroad.

25% or so returns on foreign stocks are very good for the US – even if foreigners got 15% on their US stocks. The US has more equity investment abroad than foreigners have equity investment in the US (largely because foreign markets have outperformed US markets consistently in dollar terms since 2002 -- not because of large US investments in the rest of the world). My very rough calculations suggest that the value of US equity investment abroad increased by about a trillion dollars more than the value of foreign equity investment in the US rose.

That is enough to wipe out the additional debt taken on to finance the US current account deficit.

[diamondlady1025]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('perdition79', 'T')his thread reads like bait for some XXX-rated doomer porn.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diamondlady1025', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('perdition79', 'T')his thread reads like bait for some XXX-rated doomer porn.

[Loki]

Ye gods people, give the woman a break. She asked a legitimate question that all of us have asked.

Diamondlady, I think the reason folks here are being such smartasses is because we honestly don't know. None of us have crystal balls. It's something that's debated back and forth every day here. Just stick around to see what different people think.

I personally think we here in the US could very well see hard times in the 2010s. Maybe even something on the level of the depression of the 1930s, perhaps even worse. If the Greater Depression comes to pass, our ability to buy cheap Chinese crap will definitely be reduced, and I wouldn't be surprised if hyperinflation wipes peoples' savings out and reduces us to living off the bare basics. As to when it will resolve itself, who knows? Perhaps never, or perhaps like the last Great Depression it will only resolve itself after a massive bloodbath. Opinions on this site range from "it'll all be OK, we'll just build a bunch of nuclear plants" to "WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!" The truth probably lies somewhere between. I personally don't buy the Big Die Off theory---I think a long-term Greater Depression is much more likely.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best. Good luck.

[KhanCEO]

Im not sure how all of this will play out. I have a few guesses, one being that everything will melt down in a day or the other is things get worse day by day (Slow Burn) till everything goes to hell. I personally wonder how much the control the powers that be will have over the oil shocks and hyper inflation. I really don't know what they are going to do.

The powers that be might use those detention camps or maybe not; will Mexico's economy tank when the oil stops being produced in large amounts?

Will war with Iran happen? Maybe, we got a lot of war ships near their country. Israel has plans to bomb them.

How will the North American Union play out in all of this? Will the Amero make it to the market before the oil shocks?

Lately, I have been very nervious, will this be the year? I still have things to do and prepare for.......

Yes, I do believe at least 4 billion will die, maybe more within the decades ahead. Thats just my thoughts about society and were we are headed.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow will the North American Union play out in all of this? Will the Amero make it to the market before the oil shocks?

[coyote]

I was just poking fun at perdition -- he can take it. Welcome, diamondlady. Don't mind us.

I'm in San Diego as well, and also looking to get out when I can. Not being an economist, I don't have many coherent thoughts as to the when and how of economic meltdown... but I don't see many resolutions in the near or mid term. I subscribe to the view that in a world of continually shrinking energy supplies, there's no way our endless-growth economy can continue. I'm not sure how it could ever resolve, except into some very different kind of steady-state barter economy, and probably at a much lower population level. In all kinds of ways, we've got a long, rocky road ahead of us.

There you have it -- from a decided non-expert.

[MrBill]

I always wondered where East of Eden was, and now I know it is San Diego. Thanks! ; - )

[evilgenius]

I think the Neocons have taken the bull by the horns and are definetly PO aware. The consequence of this, though, is that should they fail at any point it leaves the US open to catastrophe. The Reagan school old guard have taken a chance rather than allowing the world's markets to dictate the end game for oil. Ask yourself, what are the chances that they won't be able to finish what they have started or that what they have started will get totally out of control? Once it does it could all come undone quickly.

[Waterthrush]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KhanCEO', 'I')m not sure how all of this will play out. I have a few guesses, one being that everything will melt down in a day or the other is things get worse day by day (Slow Burn) till everything goes to hell.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')he Amero will not happen because Canadians do not trust Americans. Period. Screwed over one too many times. Why would we climb into bed with the US given all your fiscal deficts and unfunded future liabilities? Go ahead. Nuke us. Invade us. But don't expect us to pay your bills willingly! HAHA!

[mmasters]

I personally think it can be rigged to go on longer barring some unforseen event jarring things loose which is definitely possible. In any case we're headed for rough waters at earliest this year at latest before the end of the decade.

I predict a global market crash and a world financial crisis within the next few years. Afterwards the US will merge into an economic union with Canada and Mexico. The model to follow will be the EU, we wil be NAFTA, there will be others as well to follow composing a handful of world economic regions. Additionally if not regional currencies we may have a formal world currency instituted to replace the USD. The UN would come into great power. Put simply a global financial crisis is a springboard for world government and a world economic system of total control.

[MrBill]

Dreamtwister wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think you underestimate Ottawa's ability to slither along on it's political belly. Even Jean Chretien, the most virulently anti-US Prime Minister in living memory managed to turn control of our military over to NORTHCOM back in 2002. Check it out:

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'H')owever, I still believe in Canadians. At least most of them.

[dogf]

I read this thread to mean what is gonna happen. And here are my predictions.
However, I still am in preparation mode for the worst.

BUT;

The Upside to Peak Oil

Remember back in the 70s we were complaining they were taking the wood out of the car dashboard and it was all turning to plastic?
And maybe if transportation becomes so expensive, jobs will come home from China and we will have factories pumping out the latest VCR equivalent.
Yes there will be heightened emotions when the general public realizes this is happening. Somewhere between the feelings of Y2K and 911, they will realize the world will change overnight. But it won’t really be overnight.
As long as world war 3 doesn’t start over Iran’s nukes or Russia’s oil, we should be able to make the transition.
Once gas hits 10 bucks a gallon, nothing changes other than we drive more like those in Briton paying 8 bucks a gallon. If anything, we might like the end result. While it might start out as high unemployment, the government will probably help this time. They will need people to build the reactors/windmills/PV farms that will be needed to power the electric transportation system being set up all over North America. We will be such an electric society generated from the sun we will easily have enough left over to keep our water radiators of yesteryear filled with warm water. It’s not like the government can’t afford this. Not only will they have given up on the oil wars, saving all that money, if things are still a little tight they will just print more money. Not like that isn’t going on right now anyways.
People will be buying new Tesla minivans made of non plastic materials of the day. Maybe a lot more food really is homegrown. Garden girl proves this isn’t so hard. With less carbon in the air, less inhalers for the school kids. Technology isn’t going to stop advancing along its bell curve. Hopefully if Canada ever does build a national system of power lines to balance the wind farms they bury it for aesthetics. Video phones really do make it big in the telecommuting world.
90% of the worry is moving that orange and banana north. When the Amtrak shares are bought by GWB Inc. it will get electrified real quick. And man it will grow fast…
Or better yet private money gets thrown at it like it is now towards renewables.
By product is a lot less pollution. Less health issues. Doctors will have time to make house calls.
Maybe if it takes 15-20 years for the transition, it will actually be looked upon as a good thing.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') always wondered where East of Eden was, and now I know it is San Diego. Thanks! ; - )

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dogf', '
')And maybe if transportation becomes so expensive, jobs will come home from China and we will have factories pumping out the latest VCR equivalent.