[DantesPeak]

The full report can be accessed here:

World Economic Forum

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')arning of higher risk of oil price shock
By Gillian Tett in London

Published: January 11 2007 02:00 | Last updated: January 11 2007 02:00

The chance of an oil price shock in the next decade big enough to prompt a global recession is "relatively high", at 10-20 per cent, Jacques Aigrain, the chief executive officer of Swiss Re insurance group, warned yesterday

If the shock did occur, it could cause losses of about $1,000bn (€770bn, £515bn) across the global economy, Mr Aigrain said.

However, over the coming decades climate change might pose far more serious risks to the global economy, he said, arguing that this showed the need for governments and leaders to take serious collective action to tackle the problems.

"There is no doubt that the long-term trend [in climate patterns] is dire . . . we cannot put our heads in the sand. We have a responsibility to act now," Mr Aigrain said.

[IslandCrow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')arning of higher risk of oil price shock

The chance of an oil price shock in the next decade big enough to prompt a global recession is "relatively high", at 10-20 per cent,

[garyp]

Personally I'd put the probability of an oil shock at somewhere around the 90% level in the next decade.

Not only is there peak oil, there is also the probability of demand outstripping supply due to economic growth, and the probability of an Iran/Islam induced supply constriction.

In fact, maybe I should be putting some money on it

[EnergyHog]

Now they are worried about an oil shock?

Did they just read LATOC?

They've even gone so far as to figure out that climate change could pose even bigger problems.

Did they just watch An Inconvenient Time to Promote Al Gore?

I guess they're just putting in their vote.

[DantesPeak]

I'd put the probability of an oil shock in the next ten weeks (not years) at 10 to 20% - based on an escalation of tension between Iran and the US in the Persian Gulf area (see the Iran news thread).

My odds of a crisis in the next ten years is 90% too. It looks like the great oil grab is underway, and has been for a long time. The 1980s Iraq/Iran conflict was essentially an oil war, as well as Iraq's invasion of Kuwait to punish them for horizontal drilling into Iraqii fields (not that either case justifies war IMO). I don't see any peacemakers coming to power in the US, Russia, OPEC, China, etc., although I doubt Europe will start any major new conflicts over oil.

[shortonoil]

The PTB, a.k.a. the international banksters; the hand full of people that control the world’s central banks and the majority of its wealth, have far to much to lose from a confrontation between Iran and the US. The interruption that would occur to the world’s oil supply, from such an event, would bring crashing down the entire, already shaky, world’s monetary/financial system. This would result in tens of trillions of $s in loses for them. If the neo-cons persist in this insanity, we will undoubtedly see a few well orchestrated assassinations.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')he PTB, a.k.a. the international banksters; the hand full of people that control the world’s central banks and the majority of its wealth, have far to much to lose from a confrontation between Iran and the US. The interruption that would occur to the world’s oil supply, from such an event, would bring crashing down the entire, already shaky, world’s monetary/financial system. This would result in tens of trillions of $s in loses for them. If the neo-cons persist in this insanity, we will undoubtedly see a few well orchestrated assassinations.

[NEOPO]

No longer a democrat nor a republican yet I want to take this moment to remind everyone that Al Gore has stated that he believes Climate change is more important then peak oil but he admits that if not for the seriousness of climate change the main issue would be Peak oil or simply Oil and energy.

I dont know what more most of us could want from a politician.
Someone who acknowledges Climate change and Peak oil and seriously wants to do something about it besides kill.

Jevon's paradox for anyone who wants to bring up Gores' travel's.

Pffft!! head and shoulders above the rest regardless of whatever little political corner we try to paint any of them into.
For me at least it is easy to see that the current democon majority are indeed neocon loyalists.
TPTB and the MSM have engaged in propaganda to discredit both of these very serious issues and anyone who supports them.

It is very doubtful that the sheeple will voluntarily powerdown.
It is very doubtful that any one politician could convince them to do so yet it may be our only hope to avoid a chaotic breakdown of oil addicted nations post peak.

Who am I kidding?
They would probably assassinate any such person or get some fat broad to beg for peni and use that to impeach

Of course Clinton wasnt perfect - lotta people died "around" him yet was he as bad as the current regime of devils and will any of them really try to help us through what we are about to receive???

Our collective survival may depend on our ability to choose the lesser of two evils.

Shortonoil - if you can see the bankers then try to visualize that money is no-thing to them.
Only once you do this are you beginning to see through their eyes.

They do not want you or I to have alot of money, they want the rich elite to be well fed and they want the control that comes as a result of keeping the elite happy.

America spending trillions of dollar on a war with Iran is no big deal to them and they would be happy to finance the operation.
War bonds and patriotism would be huge again
Iran is a great boogey man but the image of us beating up the great boogey man makes for great press releases and further supports their control.
Its a win win either way.
Its a reality few wish to acknowledge.
People want to believe that it isnt this "bad" yet from my studies I must conclude that indeed ......IT IS!!!

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')he PTB, a.k.a. the international banksters; the hand full of people that control the world’s central banks and the majority of its wealth, have far to much to lose from a confrontation between Iran and the US. The interruption that would occur to the world’s oil supply, from such an event, would bring crashing down the entire, already shaky, world’s monetary/financial system. This would result in tens of trillions of $s in loses for them. If the neo-cons persist in this insanity, we will undoubtedly see a few well orchestrated assassinations.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')If Bush succeeds with the new troop increases and the Democrats are unable to stop it, the autocratic global elite, have lost control. It's one thing for the Peabodies, Dukes, Rothschilds to be in control, quite another to have the Mayberry Mafiosa at the reins of power. A Bush full on dictatorial move, like this, will indicate a sea change among the global PTB.

[jupiters_release]

I'm afraid shortonoil and threadbear have it completely backwards, the banks aren't stupid. They designed the system so they'll make all the money when the markets start collapsing, as if their power could be any more consolidated lol. The administration is only doing what the banks want them to do, why would they want Bush gone? He's the exact opposite of JFK.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')this showed the need for governments and leaders to take serious collective action to tackle the problems.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')this showed the need for governments and leaders to take serious collective action to tackle the problems.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')If Bush succeeds with the new troop increases and the Democrats are unable to stop it, the autocratic global elite, have lost control. It's one thing for the Peabodies, Dukes, Rothschilds to be in control, quite another to have the Mayberry Mafiosa at the reins of power. A Bush full on dictatorial move, like this, will indicate a sea change among the global PTB.

[AirlinePilot]

After you have lived here a while, you realize that both parties are pretty much cut from the same cloth. Once they attain office, all the promises and policies basically become mired in greed and corruption. They are all very good at that. To succeed in our system and become elected, most candidates have to resort to some things most of us would not consider doing. Its the price of power here. Its not for the faint of heart and it most definitely isn't for folks who hold morals and integrity above the office.

[gg3]

The price of power is money, obviously. However, big business is not a complete monolith that walks in lock-step. Industries such as agriculture and disaster insurance (and reinsurance) that are presently taking a hit from global warming, can be expected to contribute to the Gore campaign, along with the usual Democratic constituencies.

And face it folks, Gore's the best chance we have. No other credible candidate is giving this stuff more than a few sentences. Gore is also a good bet just on sheer probability: he won in 2000, he's gotten bigger since then (he just sold out a football stadium gig in the midwest, 12,000 people bought tickets to his upcoming speech), and the man who stole the election from him is now in the 30% approval range and dropping daily as he keeps shooting himself in the foot in Iraq.

It would not surprise me if Gore was speaking to business leaders behind the scenes. And don't forget, these are smart & educated people who, unlike the core Bush constituency, believe in science.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IslandCrow', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')arning of higher risk of oil price shock

The chance of an oil price shock in the next decade big enough to prompt a global recession is "relatively high", at 10-20 per cent,

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')As we all know economist often works like a woman, when discussing a doom scenario.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')As we all know economist often works like a woman, when discussing a doom scenario.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'T')he price of power is money, obviously. However, big business is not a complete monolith that walks in lock-step. Industries such as agriculture and disaster insurance (and reinsurance) that are presently taking a hit from global warming, can be expected to contribute to the Gore campaign, along with the usual Democratic constituencies.

And face it folks, Gore's the best chance we have. No other credible candidate is giving this stuff more than a few sentences. Gore is also a good bet just on sheer probability: he won in 2000, he's gotten bigger since then (he just sold out a football stadium gig in the midwest, 12,000 people bought tickets to his upcoming speech), and the man who stole the election from him is now in the 30% approval range and dropping daily as he keeps shooting himself in the foot in Iraq.

It would not surprise me if Gore was speaking to business leaders behind the scenes. And don't forget, these are smart & educated people who, unlike the core Bush constituency, believe in science.