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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Concerned.

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Concerned.

Unread postby ConcernedPerson » Thu 09 Dec 2004, 23:09:21

[Long Post]
After discovering Peak Oil a few months back after discovering the website Life after the Oil Crash I became well...concerned. After discovering the previous website, I began to become an constant researcher of Peak Oil and it's effects on citizens and the economy. The possibility of a die-off to one billion surviving is a bit...scary. I visit the Energy Resources forum every now and then and it seems that with all the possible solutions we have, it seems that a lot would be able to replace electricity generation (Solar, Wind, Nuclear, Coal, etc.) but it seems that nothing can really be a good replacement for the oil we use for manufacturing. After realizing this point, I starting beginning to research alternatives to manufacutring without Oil and I found a few things that helped ease the fear of the implications of Peak Oil.

It seems that with with Hemp and Biopolymers it seems that it would be possible that a sucessful transition to Peak Oil is possibility if it's small. When reading about the possible solutions in the Energy Technology forum, it's a bit frightening to have the possibility that something like a 'Mad Max' scenario which was fiction might turn out to be true in the future. It also seems that a few places around the world might be a bit prepared for Peak Oil. If I remember correctly, France is about 75% dependant on nuclear power. I can't remember the exact link but I think I read it sometime when discovering this website.

Also, it seems that the UK is slowly starting to adapt to the possibilities of Peak Oil...I read awhile back that the UK was planning to switch to renewable energy (Tidal if I remember correctly). I also recently stumbled across the website UK Survival recently and it seems that the scenarios for Britan in 2025 aren't too bad compared to what I've read on this website such as the possibility of going back to the Stone Age...but in my opinion for that kind of scenario to happen, everything that could go wrong, would have to go wrong.

I'm not really trying to deny Peak Oil - fossil fuels are finite, that's a no-brainer. Although, I recently stumbled across this article. (http://www.betterhumans.com/News/news.a ... 04-09-13-3) What do you guys think? If it were done on a larger scale... True, Coal is probably the worst for the environment and accelerates global warming but with the development of clean coal...

I know it's a definite that we'll have to ditch the gas-guzzlers and air travel that eat up oil a lot but it's a lot better than having a doomsday scenario come true. The possibilities of lifestyle after a hard-crash if one occurs seems a bit depressing after realizing what we have today compared to what we will have after a hard crash if one occurs.
[Stop from becoming 20-page whine]
[End post]
ConcernedPerson
 

Unread postby savethehumans » Fri 10 Dec 2004, 00:49:55

There is no doubt that a simplified energy society can come about with alternatives. The Catch-22 is that we need fossil fuels to set up such a society; society is willing, if it doesn't have to give up its energy wants to do so. And there simply isn't enough o&g left to do both, much less satisfy growing demand. Something's gotta give, be sacrificed. We spoiled rotten industrialized peoples aren't about to sacrifice. So all those depressing doomsday scenarios are gonna happen.

The key is to have worldwide localization: the establishment of communities that can be self-sufficient...and can gather what they need to set up some kind of energy/production system to make life better than what it was like in pre-industrial times. (BTW, there were things in pre-industrial societies that were BETTER than post-industrial--people knowing each other and working together, peoples aware of their connection with nature [creation] and acting ACCORDINGLY with it, to name two!)

It's a shame, really. A population crash/die-off is inevitable, anyway. But the fall of this civilization and the building of the next one could be less cataclysmic--if only we humans could look beyond our immediate and personal WANTS...but it ain't gonna happen. So We Who Know What's Coming can only do what WE can to prepare for it. Godspeed on YOUR efforts, ConcernedPerson!
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Unread postby Guest » Fri 10 Dec 2004, 13:46:26

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It's a shame, really. A population crash/die-off is inevitable, anyway. But the fall of this civilization and the building of the next one could be less cataclysmic--if only we humans could look beyond our immediate and personal WANTS...but it ain't gonna happen. So We Who Know What's Coming can only do what WE can to prepare for it. Godspeed on YOUR efforts, ConcernedPerson!


I agree with many things you said, but I believe I express or look at then differently.

The only way that society can avoid a crash is to reverse urbanisation to a large degree. The most unsustainable places are the big cities - without question. Self-sufficient neighborhoods, first and foremost in terms of food, is the greatest emergency to avoid a large scale crash.

That being said, did you know that there is over 850 million farmers in China? These farmers will most likely not even know that a peak oil hit the world because their lifestyles do not depend on it. Whatever crash will occur, it will be felt differently in different regions (I pity people in New York, you can feel the love over there even without the peak).

But I absolutely agree that this will not happen (deurbanisation), because the common person is far too narrow sighted to react to the big picture, and will refuse to sacrifice comfortable city living.

Again, citing China as an example, those 850 million farmers are being urbanised, why do you think China's oil demand is growing so rapidly? In a country whose's population dispersion is best suited to survive the crash, they are constantly doing the opposite. Capitalism is the worst possible thing China could have endulged in.

C'est la vie...
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Unread postby Guest » Fri 10 Dec 2004, 18:28:26

China has executed farmers as of late for stealing oil. So I think they care, given that they are risking their lives to get it. To say that the Chinese use sustainable agriculture techniques seems rediculous to me. They may not spray as much pesticides or use as much gas, but they need oil and fosil fuels as much as the US.

The US has walked into a trap. China set the trap 10 years ago when they started to "modernize." Don't think they didn't know about Peak Oil. The Chinese empires value stability over everything else. They would only modernize with the threat of an even greater destabilizing force. They calculated when it would hit, and what they would need to do in order to take on the US hegemony. They have formed secret alliances while publicly denouncing their allies as “opponentsâ€
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