[Grimnir]

http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HL23Dj01.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal economy faces a dangerous year
By Jephraim P Gundzik

Rising inflation and falling home prices are likely to push the US economy into recession by the second half of 2007. Gathering economic weakness, combined with negative real yields on US Treasury securities and growing political pressure to weaken the dollar will lead to significant dollar depreciation against most currencies.
...
Unprecedented global geopolitical instability will have its most obvious impact on international commodity prices. More frequent energy supply disruptions in the Middle East and Africa, combined with accelerating natural oil production declines in the world’s largest oil fields, will keep crude oil and natural gas prices buoyant. Slower than anticipated global economic growth will not push oil prices lower in 2007.
...
The stated logic behind the Fed’s monetary policy change is spurious, to say the least. A 12-year-old child could grasp the idea that energy supply problems are pushing US inflation higher and that these supply problems are likely to intensify in 2007. This suggests that another explanation must be behind the Fed’s shift to more accommodative monetary policy. The most likely seems to be growing concern among Fed policymakers over increasing systemic problems for the US financial system arising from the collapse of the US housing market.
...
America’s economic fairytale has turned into a nightmare and very few investors realize it. In addition to producing a sudden and sharp decline in household income by eliminating the prospect of new mortgage refinancing for many Americans, declining prices for new and existing homes will have a strong negative impact on the US financial system, severely restraining credit growth. Falling home prices, especially in what were once the hottest housing and mortgage markets in the US, have caused mortgage default rates and foreclosures to surge higher.
...

The dollar is likely to depreciate by at least 20% against the yen, the Swiss franc, the euro and the pound in 2007. The dollar will also depreciate against the currencies of emerging market commodity exporters. Finally, Beijing will probably allow the yuan to appreciate about 10% against the dollar. Rather than political pressure from Washington, continued high energy prices and soaring grain prices will motivate the revaluation of the yuan.

[NEOPO]

20% - thats tempting isnt it?

[dukey]

chuck in, in March Iran will switch to selling oil in Euros

[NEOPO]

Yep get into the Euro now, hold and then buy back Amero's once the dust has settled.....

[Falconoffury]

Correct me if I'm wrong please, but any country running a budget surplus should be a relatively safe currency.