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Annual world energy forecast

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Annual world energy forecast

Unread postby UncoveringTruths » Tue 05 Dec 2006, 13:38:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lso on Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Department released its annual long-term world energy forecast. The agency predicted that the price of oil, when adjusted for inflation, would decline between 2007 and 2015 as investments made in recent years of historically high prices bring new supplies to the market.

After that, the Energy Department said it expects prices to resume an upward trend, bringing average real prices (in 2005 dollars) by 2030 to more than $59 a barrel. In nominal terms, that would be equivalent to about $95 a barrel. The agency said it expects OPEC to adjust its output over the next 25 years to try to keep average prices between $50 and $60 -- a range it is already trying to achieve.


Oil Prices Rise on Weather, OPEC Worries
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Re: Annual world energy forecast

Unread postby NeoPeasant » Tue 05 Dec 2006, 13:55:27

Wow, what a relief. You guys had me worried. Now I can confidently go shopping for that new minivan that I put off buying in 2004 due to the PO hype. :twisted:
I think I'll print off a copy of the EIA report, seal it in an envelope, and open it in 2030 to see how accurate it was.
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Re: Annual world energy forecast

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 05 Dec 2006, 15:46:30

Image

EIA Archive

Better yet, go back into their archive and check the results of their previous brilliant forecasts. Here's their 1999 forecast. You can see what a good job they have done.
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Re: Annual world energy forecast

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Tue 05 Dec 2006, 15:53:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'Y')ou can see what a good job they have done.


BWAHAHAHAHAHA!

Wait a minute...that's not funny...:oops:
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Re: Annual world energy forecast

Unread postby dukey » Tue 05 Dec 2006, 17:59:53

i think a 2yo with a crayon could have done a better job of predicting future oil price ..
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Re: Annual world energy forecast

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Tue 05 Dec 2006, 18:26:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'H')ere's their 1999 forecast.


Ouch! :)
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Re: Annual world energy forecast

Unread postby Concerned » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 05:46:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '[')url=http://img240.imageshack.us/my.php?image=1999aeoforecastvsactualgu2.jpg]Image[/url]

EIA Archive

Better yet, go back into their archive and check the results of their previous brilliant forecasts. Here's their 1999 forecast. You can see what a good job they have done.


*snicker*

I wonder if the people who constantly blast Campbell for getting the exact peak date wrong, ever point the finger at a whole agency, big budget etc... who totally failed to get a handle on the oil energy picture.
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Re: Annual world energy forecast

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 06:10:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '[')url=http://img240.imageshack.us/my.php?image=1999aeoforecastvsactualgu2.jpg]Image[/url]

EIA Archive

Better yet, go back into their archive and check the results of their previous brilliant forecasts. Here's their 1999 forecast. You can see what a good job they have done.


That graph does not even take into account the effects of Inflation on the value of oil!

If you look at the price graph of US oil from 1880-1972 it is pretty much a steady decline because an always increasing supply was meeting and exceeding the inflation value losses. After the peak the situtuation will be exactly opposite, supply will not meet demand and the impact of inflation will be compounded instead of masked!
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Annual world energy forecast

Unread postby oilfreeandhappy » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 18:05:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '[')url=http://img240.imageshack.us/my.php?image=1999aeoforecastvsactualgu2.jpg]Image[/url]

EIA Archive

Better yet, go back into their archive and check the results of their previous brilliant forecasts. Here's their 1999 forecast. You can see what a good job they have done.

Wow! Nice link. I looked in the 2004 article, and here's a quote:

Crude oil prices are determined largely in an international marketplace by the balance between production in OPEC and non-OPEC nations and demand. In the reference case, the average lower 48 crude oil price is projected to be $23.61 per barrel in 2010 and $26.72 per barrel in 2025
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Re: Annual world energy forecast

Unread postby Bas » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 20:06:06

I've never been one for conspiracies and I thought all the instutions were coming around to the PO problem last year but this.....
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