[Johnston]

It saddens me whenever I think of the future of aviation. Which seems likely to be thousands of planes rusting in the desert somewhere.

In most other aspects of energy usage, I can at least imagine alternatives being used. There don't seem to be any alternatives when it comes to flying.

Here in Australia almost everyone has friends and family overseas. Luckily, they can pop back home for a yearly Christmas visit, or get home quickly if a family member is sick or dies.

For people in the US with family interstate, at least they could conceivably travel across the country in a post-PO world without flying. Same goes for people living in various European countries.

But how do you get between London and Australia without flying? Are families just to be separated for life? Or else spend their life savings on a plane ticket?

The whole PO issue is depressing me. My dreams of affluence and a jet-setting lifestyle are pretty much shattered.

I suppose there are positives. Flying will become special, a novelty... we will really appreciate it, just like the old days. And overseas travel will not be something we do at the drop of a hat with our Lonely Planet book in hand, it will be something to be treasured and appreciated.

[Lighthouse]

I'm in Australia too. I will fly as long as I can afford it. You are right, the party will be over quite soon. Until then enjoy it as long as you can ...

[gg3]

Given the degree to which business depends on jet air travel, it's likely that petroleum will be prioritized for aircraft long after it's been put on rationing for automobiles.

Between now & then, a lot more airline bankruptcies & consolidations.

Australians overseas might end up coming home to stay.

Americans with families across the US will take trains and buses.

All those aircraft rusting in the desert: yeah, a sad story indeed. Eventually to be harvested for parts to keep the remaining fleet flying.

In the days after 9/11 it was creepy as hell to see no airplanes in the sky: the familiar woosh of jets gone like the calls of temporarily-extinct birds.

But when I was a kid, i.e. 3 - 4 years old, the sight of a 707 was indeed special, and flying was all the more so. To this day my response to people complaining at airports and onboard the planes, is "but it really is a miracle to travel three thousand miles in six hours."

[MD]

Have no fear, aviation will continue well on into the future. Men will fly, any way they can.

Mass transit via wide bodied jets will not, but it can be argued that mass jet travel really isn't flying anyway, flying enthusiasts won't miss it a bit.

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'G')iven the degree to which business depends on jet air travel, it's likely that petroleum will be prioritized for aircraft long after it's been put on rationing for automobiles.

Between now & then, a lot more airline bankruptcies & consolidations.

Australians overseas might end up coming home to stay.

Americans with families across the US will take trains and buses.

All those aircraft rusting in the desert: yeah, a sad story indeed. Eventually to be harvested for parts to keep the remaining fleet flying.


yep, I have always thought of this. There will always be enough fuel to fly for the willing and able, in other words those who can afford it. Automobile fuel rationing will come way before planes become obsolete.
In the days after 9/11 it was creepy as hell to see no airplanes in the sky: the familiar woosh of jets gone like the calls of temporarily-extinct birds.

But when I was a kid, i.e. 3 - 4 years old, the sight of a 707 was indeed special, and flying was all the more so. To this day my response to people complaining at airports and onboard the planes, is "but it really is a miracle to travel three thousand miles in six hours."

[kjmclark]

I really think people get carried away with this. Aviation has many efficiency tricks up its sleeve to put off being grounded. I don't expect the aviation industry to do worse than any other transportation industry as oil product prices rise. That will lead to aviation bankruptcies, but airlines will just keep lowering wages and reducing schedules to keep flying. Besides, aircraft in the desert don't rust. Their aluminum skins form a thin layer of oxide and then basically stop oxidizing. The planes will sit there until recycled.

Some ways airplanes will keep flying:
1. Lifting bodies - like the B2 bomber.
2. Lower speeds
3. Reduced weight
4. Continuing improvements in wing and engine design
5. Direct routing/route choice
6. Electric ground tugs - stop using engines to drive the plane around the ground.
7. Linear accelerator takeoff assist - use electricity to get the plane up to takeoff speed.
8. Takeoff tugs - attach a remote-controlled electric plane that provides extra thrust until past the airport.
9. Bill passengers by weight
10. Higher prices

I think people forget that while aircraft are less efficient per unit time, per passenger mile they are far more efficient that automobiles and probably more efficient than trains for long distances. Unless the US scraps capitalism, we will have rationing by price and there will be people able and willing to pay for the faster trip by plane for many years. There may be fewer and fewer of those wealthy enough over time, but I'll be surprised if tickets for trans-Atlantic or trans-Pacific flights aren't available in 50 years.

[FishAreBest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Johnston', 'B')ut how do you get between London and Australia without flying?

[kjmclark]

For example, Here's a NASA article on blended wing body aircraft.
This presentationtalks about direct routing and flapless landings (which I left out).
This article on perforated wingstalks about drilling tiny holes in the leading edge of the wings, one of the many technologies that can improve wing performance.

[holmes]

The whole charade is not going to end as soon as you think! Cmon use some logic. Sectors will go away in the next coupleof years or so but the entire Ponzi is going to stay afloat for most until at least 2015. I will be highly surprised if the whole collapse is in the next couple of years. Things dont happen like that. Civilizations dont collapse over night. But sections do. Dont be in one of those sections. The economy is going to shrink for sure. but Im not seeing major chaos until at least 2025.

[EndOfGrowth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', 'T')he whole charade is not going to end as soon as you think! Cmon use some logic. Sectors will go away in the next coupleof years or so but the entire Ponzi is going to stay afloat for most until at least 2015. I will be highly surprised if the whole collapse is in the next couple of years. Things dont happen like that. Civilizations dont collapse over night. But sections do. Dont be in one of those sections. The economy is going to shrink for sure. but Im not seeing major chaos until at least 2025.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'I')'m in Australia too. I will fly as long as I can afford it. You are right, the party will be over quite soon. Until then enjoy it as long as you can ...

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t will be sad to see all the planes grounded

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EndOfGrowth', '
')
Do you seriously think for one moment that the aviation industry can continue to function and expand in the middle of a global depression??

[holmes]

Listen I know this beast is going to crumble it already is. However like ohanian said expansion is ending soon. Things will stay a certain size for years. then they will shrink and shrink and shrink. Im saying that airlines will run for many years but probably only jet blue and continental. eventually none of course. But we have some years left until things will have to change. actually forced to change.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', 'L')isten I know this beast is going to crumble it already is. However like ohanian said expansion is ending soon. Things will stay a certain size for years. then they will shrink and shrink and shrink. Im saying that airlines will run for many years but probably only jet blue and continental. eventually none of course. But we have some years left until things will have to change. actually forced to change.

[rogerhb]

[dbuckley]

I was born in NZ in the late 50s, and my mum "popped home" with me for a holiday to show me off to the grandparents in old England. Given the distinct lack of wide bodied jets and cheap airfairs, the journey took six weeks by boat. And six weeks back.

Expect to see a resurgence in sea travel, but powered by sail rather tha fuel oil...

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'W')hat about turboprops running on ethanol. Or back to the old helium or hydrogen airships?

Not airtravel as we know it but would it be an alternative?

[Johnston]

I should be more optimistic... in a post-PO world, travel will be an overland adventure rather than sitting on a 747 watching some awful movie.

Still... I had plans to work overseas for a while. I think I might try to get that done asap before the economic crisis hits.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'W')hat about turboprops running on ethanol. Or back to the old helium or hydrogen airships?

Not airtravel as we know it but would it be an alternative?