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oil prices to rise

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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Temperedoil » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 23:52:51

When CERA suggest that there will be ten million barrels of new oil supply coming online up to 2010, that could be possible depending on how the production is expected to be in various fields being developed around Africa and the Former Soviet Union. However, there is a difference between ten million barrels coming online and ten million barrels adding on to what we already have. Will the ten million be enough to counter the loss of production from the sharp declines in the North Sea, the declines from oilfields in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and others? Will it be enough to balance both that and increasing demand in that time?

This is where the CERA figures can wind up looking rather less than what we need.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby KevO » Fri 01 Dec 2006, 05:17:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'O')il prices will drop down below $58 before it will hit $65.


well it's at $64.42 as I write.
You bet on horses?



ooh. you're good.

As I type, it's down to $62.81.
What'll win the 3.15 at Haydock?
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Temperedoil » Fri 01 Dec 2006, 06:33:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', '
')
I believe (and hope to hell that I am wrong) that CERA is bought and paid for to give the most optimistic estimate possible while still maintaining a straight face. Their credibility alone means alot of people will waste five more years telling each other what a Saint Yergin is instead of insisting that we have a Marshall Plan for non-fossil energy in this country.



I like to think that CERA, the IEA, and others like them, have the best possible intentions in presenting the figures and analysis that they do. The reason that their figures do not match up to what people on the Peak Oil side of the debate offer is that they are likely to find it far too frightening a scenario to comprehend. Somewhere in there they will be thinking to themselves "this can't be true, this can't be real, this can't be happening", and so they choose to offer some form of reasoning - as much to themselves as to anybody else - to show that everything is okay and nobody has anything to worry about. They may well be just as concerned as we are about what is looking very likely to happen over the next twenty years, but just can't allow themselves to believe that something so monstrously disastrous could be happening in their lifetimes.

Given that it will mean that, basically, humanity has been running full steam down an entirely unsustainable path with absolutely no back-up plan in case things go wrong. Does that sound like something a species calling itself wise would allow itself to do, if it really was so wise and intelligent?

Some people might acknowledge that we got things wrong and now we need to start getting things right. Others, apparently like CERA, would prefer to think that we have been right all along and the path we are on is the right path, no need to change.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby KevO » Fri 01 Dec 2006, 15:49:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'O')il prices will drop down below $58 before it will hit $65.


well it's at $64.42 as I write.
You bet on horses?



ooh. you're good.

As I type, it's down to $62.81.
What'll win the 3.15 at Haydock?


No you lost!
It's $65.24
:)
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commod ... rices.html
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby ohanian » Fri 01 Dec 2006, 18:52:13

Image
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby DantesPeak » Fri 01 Dec 2006, 19:09:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', '
')
The thing that occured to me today is if we are expecting strong demand growth into forever basically, why is OPEC reducing it's output?



Actually I don't think OPEC needs to reduce output any further to maintain a US price over $60. Northern hemishere winter months usual create 1 to 2 million bpd of additional demand. This is not the time to make prodcution cuts.

Part of inventory buildup in the summer was due to lower quality, less desirable oil being produced by the Saudis. Part of the reason inventories have not been worked off is an extended refinery down time this fall in the US (possibly because they were over utilized in 2005) and in Europe refinery profits don't justify refining oil and shipping it to the US. So product inventories have run down very fast while crude stays about the same.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 01 Dec 2006, 19:40:33

Micki said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have learnt to take what Yergin says and my cat craps and put in the same bag. He's not even funny anymore.


Maybe, Yergin is performing the modern day equivalent of the Shakespearean fool. If that is what he doing, he should be commemorated for his skill. He certainly plays the part
well.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Zardoz » Fri 01 Dec 2006, 20:43:52

Commodity Strategists: Oil Prices May Fall Next Year, Baer Says

Image
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 02 Dec 2006, 19:42:41

Zardoz,

You certainly have a talent for collecting the eclectic. That is a priceless pig!
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby nth » Fri 05 Jan 2007, 15:31:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '
')
well it's at $64.42 as I write.
You bet on horses?


It is now down to mid $50's.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby nth » Fri 05 Jan 2007, 15:34:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '
')
Nonsense. It is an election year. A drop in oil prices was a no-brainer.


Do you now believe me?

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see this drop coming.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Bleep » Fri 05 Jan 2007, 19:06:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'O')il prices will drop down below $58 before it will hit $65.
Angola joining OPEC will be big news and will help rally oil prices at end of year and beginning of next year. Angola joining OPEC means they will get a production cap. Remember this is one of the regions that we are supposed to see lots of new production. Well, those productions will not see full production if they join OPEC.

Rumor has it if they join, they will be capped at 2mbpd. That is a nice half a million more than current rate. But, well below Optimists who think they can produce close to 2.5mbpd or higher.

If there's so much more oil now why is there falling demand for copper?$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/copper-commodity-sell-off-points-growth/story.aspx?guid=%7B5B0B6DAE-4AED-4AF0-BB74-D57D50FDFB3B%7D]Copper, commodities sell-off may signal slowdown (link)[/url]

"Copper is the metal with a Ph. D. in economics," Ritholtz said. "It's used in the wiring of homes and offices, in plumbing in construction, and it's also a key component in electronic goods.

"When it softens, it means we're making fewer homes, offices and computers."
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby nth » Fri 05 Jan 2007, 19:20:46

Bleep,

Huh?
There is a lot of oil? Where?
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Bleep » Fri 05 Jan 2007, 19:24:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'B')leep,

Huh?
There is a lot of oil? Where?
Coming out of Angola?
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby nth » Fri 05 Jan 2007, 19:28:24

Bleep,

Even if Angola does produce 2.5mbpd within 10 years, that won't really change US economics or world economics.
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