I just listened to this report on the sudden plunge of the U.S. dollar, and the analyst has some scary conclusions:
1) The Chinese are now diverting their new bank reserve holdings into gold (yeah, that old fashioned stuff) and the Euro. They have slid from having 85% of their reserves in the buck to 70% and this will reduce further in time.
2) From 1995 to 2005, American investors have quadrupled their holdings of off-shore stocks and foreign investors are now favoring non-U.S. stocks as well. There is now more stock growth outside the U.S. than inside.
3) The only way the U.S. can bring down its ongoing trade deficit is to accept recession and also to increase taxes.
Their is a split happening between the U.S. economy and Europe. Current U.S. conditions such as the housing slump in the U.S. would make lower interest rates desirable for the economy but in Europe, either stable or slightly increased interest rates are expected. The interest rate divide will by itself force the buck lower.
But, it also seems to me that any regime of higher interest rates in the U.S. will push its most important industry, automobiles, right off the cliff. Maybe Toyota, Nissan and Honda can weather a slip in sales, but not Ford or GM. To top it off, the American big 3 (or maybe its 2.5 now) carry huge debt loads and higher interest rates will also drive up their fixed costs for interest charges. It seems that the U.S. should launch some great new initiatives to bring jobs and to reduce its deficit and one way may well be renewable energy projects. Perhaps use a subsidized low interest rate for these. Like Japan did years ago with its auto industry to stimulate investment in it. That would be a creative way around this dilemma.
See
Report on Business clip
One thing this does not explain is why the Chinese would want to hurt the U.S. this way, as by extension it will reduce U.S. purchases. Shouldn't they always want to support their best customer?
Who would have ever thought, even twenty years ago, that China would carry so much clout?