[MD]

Here's a nice article from an energy insider. He essentially claims the peak oil discussions have missed the point, which he redefines as "rate of conversion"

It sounds like he is a PO convert trying to sell the concept to his peers without having to appear tinfoiled.

link

[bobcousins]

I think often the headline name throws people off. We know "Peak Oil" means Peak Oil Production, but it is often construed to mean "Peak Cumulative Production". No matter how many times we say oil is not about to run out, that is the image that sticks in people's minds. They are debunking the wrong concept.

Also, the idea that production achieves a peak at all is counterintuitive to most people. If I have a jar of cookies, I eat 3 a day until it runs out. I don't start off eating one a week, peaking at 10 a day, then tailing off. I struggle to think of any everyday examples that exhibit such a peak, which makes if difficult to explain PO to people.

It's good to see some industry insiders grasping the fundamental theory, even if they don't realise it's the same thing as PO.

[seahorse2]

Nice article. It is very similar to what Simmons says, if one reads Simmons closely. Simmons always talks about a peak coinciding with a peak in downstream infrastructure, hard to get oil, flow rates, lack of skilled people, etc.

[mekrob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'I') think often the headline name throws people off. We know "Peak Oil" means Peak Oil Production, but it is often construed to mean "Peak Cumulative Production". No matter how many times we say oil is not about to run out, that is the image that sticks in people's minds. They are debunking the wrong concept.

Also, the idea that production achieves a peak at all is counterintuitive to most people. If I have a jar of cookies, I eat 3 a day until it runs out. I don't start off eating one a week, peaking at 10 a day, then tailing off. I struggle to think of any everyday examples that exhibit such a peak, which makes if difficult to explain PO to people.

It's good to see some industry insiders grasping the fundamental theory, even if they don't realise it's the same thing as PO.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ur industry is perhaps “flat out” in terms of its abilities to add additional “low cost” supply. We may be at the peak rate of conversion reflected in increasing costs from the service providers and the squeezing of profitability for producers. In some areas, this increase in costs (and reduction in product prices) is reflected in margins of profitability being reduced to levels experienced in the 1990’s

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ur industry is perhaps “flat out” in terms of its abilities to add additional “low cost” supply. We may be at the peak rate of conversion reflected in increasing costs from the service providers and the squeezing of profitability for producers. In some areas, this increase in costs (and reduction in product prices) is reflected in margins of profitability being reduced to levels experienced in the 1990’s

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '.')....
It would be interesting to know the ratio of increased drilling costs to crude oil price, so you could model this for various fields and see what effect it has on nominal "reserves".

[whereagles]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', '
')Also, the idea that production achieves a peak at all is counterintuitive to most people. If I have a jar of cookies, I eat 3 a day until it runs out. I don't start off eating one a week, peaking at 10 a day, then tailing off. I struggle to think of any everyday examples that exhibit such a peak, which makes if difficult to explain PO to people.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') steel steel Interest per
beams stainless $1,000,000 Day Rate Crude Oil

June 2005 132 152 $60,000 $53,581 46.65
August 2006 164 196 $80,000 $91,812 69
Price Increase 24% 29% 33% 71% 48%

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'I') think often the headline name throws people off. We know "Peak Oil" means Peak Oil Production, but it is often construed to mean "Peak Cumulative Production". No matter how many times we say oil is not about to run out, that is the image that sticks in people's minds. They are debunking the wrong concept.

Also, the idea that production achieves a peak at all is counterintuitive to most people. If I have a jar of cookies, I eat 3 a day until it runs out. I don't start off eating one a week, peaking at 10 a day, then tailing off. I struggle to think of any everyday examples that exhibit such a peak, which makes if difficult to explain PO to people.

It's good to see some industry insiders grasping the fundamental theory, even if they don't realise it's the same thing as PO.

[grink1tt3n]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', '
')Do you ever actually think before posting, or do you just have a selection of idiot statements ready to cut and paste?

Your definition of "about to run out" differs from the rest of the planet.