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Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby rogerhb » Mon 13 Nov 2006, 22:53:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'I')'ve frozen to death


The Messiah, the Messiah! uNkNowN ElEmEnt once froze to death but still posts...

Send us another sign...
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby Jack » Mon 13 Nov 2006, 23:00:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'A')dd to that - no foreign aid shipments.
Forget the aid shipments. No IMF payments to make. They'll be fine.


That's one of the most depressing possibilities I've read. I can only hope such a dire development is avoided. 8)
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby Lighthouse » Mon 13 Nov 2006, 23:56:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '.')..Still, who knows? Maybe I'm just an optimist. 8)


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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby BlisteredWhippet » Thu 16 Nov 2006, 18:23:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'W')ho dies first?


3rd world.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'W')ho next?


2nd world.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'F')ollowed by?


1st world.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I don't think so.

How long do you think average Joe in the first world survive if TSHTF. No power, no fuel, no money (ATM does not work), no telephone, no internet, no TV, no Walmart or Woolworth.

Oh I forgot, the third world is already dealing with live, without power, fuel, money, and so on.


I think that stereotype is debatable. There has been an explosion of urban populations worldwide in the "3rd world". Even "3rd worlders" depend on economic systems with prop up a suite of life-sustaining technologies. Bushmen and pygmies notwithstanding, a great deal of the third world depends on a thin veneer of technological help from the 1st and 2nd worlds. Surplus populations in urban areas are NOT producing their own food. 1st world nations have equity, technology, infrastructure that can be exploited by the individual for survival terms.

The 3rd worlder has little to exploit. They don't even have a fan, the shit just hits them directly. The 3rd worlder doesn't have the means to manufacture penicillin, they have a Red Cross warehouse of penecillin from the 1st world. They don't have clean water, they have a contract for it from the 1st world. They are overpopulated, urbanized, and their sustainable cultures critically compromised.

For Bushmen and Pygmies, TSHTF is largely irrelevent aside from being unable to find a civilized human with which to trade for cigarettes. I expect TSHTF's effects to resemble current chaos in Zimbabwe, whose TSHTF scenario is mitigated by the 1st world currently. New York in the 1970s was pretty bad, but it doesn't even come close to Zimbabwe. For all of Katrina's theatrical example of TSHTF and government ineptness in dealing with it, it was still clear that a city of 450,000 could evacuate under its own power, for the most part.

The 3rd world does not have a coast guard. It does not have efficient command and control. It does not have the medical means to respond in any effective way. The people are uneducated and bound by custom and taboo. If Katrina had hit a 3rd world nation, I imagine the destruction would look more like Banda Aceh after the tsunami. There would be less foresight, less help in general. Explain to the illiterate the concept of deadly invisible bacteria in floodwater.

Civil unrest like rioting and looting are largely containable phenomena by any competent government, the US being supremely competent at it. Rarely does Riot lead to Revolution as it threatens in any 3rd world country.

1st worlders have a certain amount of cushion. There are specific aspects of 1st world culture that make survival problematic and it is true that 1st worlders will have farther to fall, but there remain things like social cohesion, education, communication, military command and control, etc.

I'd rather not be surrounded by a bunch of hachet and machete-weilding superstitious diety-believers under a paramilitary mandate to rape and pillage in the event of TSHTF.

Hell, you can find yourself GUNS and BANDAGES in 1st world TSHTF scenarios. I'd much rather be in the US than the Congo if TSHTF. I would imagine downtown New York being much more survivable than say, downtown Kinsasha.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re you still thinking we will leave the bus last?

Absolutely. Survival depends, I think, on the broad spectrum of resources, the broader the spectrum, the more TSHTF-resistant the society. Its all about options. I think the first world is paranoid that it runs low on options because it tends to forget the enormous resources of all the individuals and their collective store of esoteric knowledge.

Even in TSHTF, there will still be a library. In Kinsasha, there is only a new place to squat and plenty of fuel for cooking fires. In the US, there are surplus deer-hunting rifles. In Kinsasha, there is a jagged piece of tin tied to a stick. In the 1st world there are individuals that understand the link between infection and illness. In Kinsasha they spit on the wound and press a red-hot piece of dirty metal into the flesh and pray to the gods.

The 3rd world is ultimately a patron of the 1st world, whose economic system dominates. The only way I see the 3rd world faring better is if they explicitly prepare for contingencies, something only an evolved economy can undertake.

If the 3rd world fares better, it will be because the 1st world recognizes saving it as somehow necessary, something that will probably be unlikely when TSHTF, when we are focusing on more immediate needs.

WWII was devastating, and you might have assumed the the country with the most military experience and history of accomodation of deprivation and hardship would fare best, yet the outcome proved that the one that fared best simply had more resources to exploit.

If TSHTF is a sickness foisted on the world by the 1st world, I don't doubt after TSHTF, those same resource-rich entities will be busily selling the 3rd world the cure to their ills.
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby MD » Thu 16 Nov 2006, 19:05:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', '.')...


Damn fine post
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby 128shot » Thu 16 Nov 2006, 19:06:39

Useless doomer fantasy.


I think someone here reads too much prisonplanet in conjunction with extremist peak oil propaganda
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby MD » Thu 16 Nov 2006, 19:13:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'U')seless doomer fantasy.


I think someone here reads too much prisonplanet in conjunction with extremist peak oil propaganda


Just how much longer do you think population will increase?

What the hell is "prison planet"?

You don't have to be extreme at all to consider dieoff inevitable,it's just a matter of timing.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby gego » Thu 16 Nov 2006, 19:42:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') don't know about the third, then second then the first world dieing off. The meek shall inherit the earth. I know that they won't do too well, but villages in the third world are mostly self sufficient. They'll suffer without oil, but they will keep going. I lived in one for 2 and a half years. The corn for the tortillas came from within sight of the village carried in on somebody's back. The cow that was going to be cut up and eaten was on display for a few hours outside of the slaughterhouse. Everything was very local. Third world cities are another story.

We're the ones with the extended supply lines. We may suffer the most from less energy. We need to heat our houses. We need to drive around and all our food is trucked in from far away.


My thoughts also. I think those who take responsibility for themselves now through self sufficiency will likely be on the bus a lot longer than those who are not responsible.
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby 128shot » Thu 16 Nov 2006, 20:20:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'U')seless doomer fantasy.


I think someone here reads too much prisonplanet in conjunction with extremist peak oil propaganda


Just how much longer do you think population will increase?

What the hell is "prison planet"?

You don't have to be extreme at all to consider dieoff inevitable,it's just a matter of timing.


one of those conspiracy laden sites.


How much longer do you think the population will increase? Its going to level off soon enough. Naturally or otherwise.

Worldwide, population birth is actually down. Africa has the only real sustaining population girth that will last past a single decade.

I'm relatively sure, that all this talk of social collapse etc, is useless, nearly all, garabage. Based on what? Some things you precieve as reality?
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby MD » Thu 16 Nov 2006, 20:30:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'U')seless doomer fantasy.


I think someone here reads too much prisonplanet in conjunction with extremist peak oil propaganda


Just how much longer do you think population will increase?

What the hell is "prison planet"?

You don't have to be extreme at all to consider dieoff inevitable,it's just a matter of timing.


one of those conspiracy laden sites.


How much longer do you think the population will increase? Its going to level off soon enough. Naturally or otherwise.

Worldwide, population birth is actually down. Africa has the only real sustaining population girth that will last past a single decade.

I'm relatively sure, that all this talk of social collapse etc, is useless, nearly all, garabage. Based on what? Some things you precieve as reality?


Looking back through history you will see collapse repeated endlessly. Are you suggesting that expecting more of the same in the future is a garbage perception of reality?
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby 128shot » Thu 16 Nov 2006, 20:36:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '
')Looking back through history you will see collapse repeated endlessly. Are you suggesting that expecting more of the same in the future is a garbage perception of reality?


each crash preceded by what? each one happend differently, nearly all indepedant events, and it was near impossible to forward ahead to plan for them.


What was it for you before Peak Oil? Climate Change?
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby MD » Thu 16 Nov 2006, 20:57:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '
')Looking back through history you will see collapse repeated endlessly. Are you suggesting that expecting more of the same in the future is a garbage perception of reality?


each crash preceded by what? each one happend differently, nearly all indepedant events, and it was near impossible to forward ahead to plan for them.


What was it for you before Peak Oil? Climate Change?


Of course they all happened differently, why would it be otherwise? Why do you say it was impossible to plan? How do you know there were no plans made?

Me before peak oil? Star Trek future.

if you are going to troll, try to make some sense. It doesn't come off very well otherwise.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby 128shot » Thu 16 Nov 2006, 23:00:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '
')
Me before peak oil? Star Trek future.

if you are going to troll, try to make some sense. It doesn't come off very well otherwise.


Ah, sorry for the dick apperance. I'm simply trying to figure out the minds behind peak oil


If the "social collapse" as everyone is pushing for, is as bad as predicted. I bet it'll be worse. The personalities on this forum are all very abrasive..hence my automatic defensive position. Most people on this forum has been one of the least accepting of new ideas I've seen since stormfront (heh, I know, bad comparison)

I'm maybe the only cornucipianish guy on this forum.

Planning? Its impossible to plan because we don't really know what we're planning for. you can guess. You can take the route everyone seems to recemmend (seemingly head for the hills stuff)

or you can take a less extreme approach. Simply wait it out. Buffer yourself of course, however try and find intristic economic value in what you do.

Simply what I'm doing. I grow organic for my health, hunt because its cheap, and I like solar power because its a buffer against rising costs of energy.

I certainly did not cut myself off from the rest of society. Enjoy what you have. Take it for granted, damn it, just take it for granted.

if you believe this will actually happen. Then just enjoy yourself.

It seems you've taken a more far flung approach. I imagine that we have at least another decade untill the onslaught of energy prices is so great it'll send off on the great depression for the 21st century.

Thats just me. I'm not a resource war kind of guy.
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby MD » Fri 17 Nov 2006, 06:25:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', ' ')

Planning? Its impossible to plan because we don't really know what we're planning for. you can guess. You can take the route everyone seems to recemmend (seemingly head for the hills stuff)...

It seems you've taken a more far flung approach. I imagine that we have at least another decade untill the onslaught of energy prices is so great it'll send off on the great depression for the 21st century.
.


List the possible outcomes, rank by likelyhood and impact, prepare as best you can for the most likely future(s), with contingency plans for lower odds outcomes that have very high impact.

My plan assumes a Long Emergency. The only contingency plan is a 30 day food supply. That's it.

I am a community guy, the Rambo shit does not work. The best communities for this long emergency include those in appalachia, so "heading for the hills" may be an excellent strategy in that context.


All that aside, the purpose of this post is to get people to look closely at the personal impact of dieoff. I would like to drive the thread back to that please.

Think about how you will feel about, and how you likely respond to extreme economic conditions close to home. Assume the downward pressures start to occur now, with a 1-2% global annual economic decline. At that rate, only a few years of pressure are required to before you will see very unpredictable behavior from government and corporate entities.

Given that inevitable decline, all kinds of previously low odds but high impact futures begin to demand fresh attention.

Looking at history reveals all kinds of lessons on what to expect from a shrinking system, this time will be different only in that energy decline is a primary driver, so the outcome becomes even less predictable as we have never experienced the oil energy curve before. It comes but once.

Yeah it would be cool if fusion would suddenly bounce on stage...yup..a nice clean Hollywood ending.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby MD » Sun 28 Sep 2008, 05:00:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'T')he reality of pending dieoff brings a few difficult questions to mind:

Who dies first? Who next? Followed by?

These are unhappy questions that when faced honestly reveal why resource wars are inevitable.


You seem rather gloomy these days..........


Resigned. Enjoying what interludes come my way. Relishing every moment. Digging for deeper conversations, deeper relational bonds. Definitely doomerish.


A dark thread...but timely, I think.

another of MD's bump review
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

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It's not hard to do.
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Re: Who Gets Thrown Off the Bus?

Unread postby countrygal » Sun 28 Sep 2008, 13:50:11

This is a 10/10 collapse heading our way, we will be a third world country in less than 4 years.
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