[Graeme]

Tight oil will shake up lifestyles, expert warns

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')orth America's dependence on oil will force higher prices and lifestyle changes in years to come, a leading Canadian energy analyst warned a Denver audience in a recent speech.

"Ultimately we will get to the point where (oil) supply is unable to meet demand in an economically feasible way. That's the break point - something has to give," said Peter Tertzakian, chief energy economist for Calgary-based ARC Financial Corp.

Tertzakian doesn't align himself with the "peak oil" theory - the notion that world oil production will peak in coming years, followed by a gradual decline in which prices will keep rising.

However, he acknowledged that production of light, sweet crude oil - the type most favored by oil refiners - probably already has peaked and must be replaced by more expensive and harder-to-extract sources such as Canada's vast reserves of oil sands, and perhaps in the future, Colorado's oil shale.

[Lighthouse]

Yes, we all know this. And now?

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[Jack]

Pstarr, I like what you have to say, and the way you say it! ::-D:

Perhaps the media types recognize that the public couldn't handle the truth.

[sch_peakoiler]

Really good analysis, yes. Sometimes I do disagree with Pstarr, but here : thumbs up.

[DantesPeak]

We should just worry about lifestyles?

I guess the future will only be an unpleasant choice between the Prius using ' new technologies' and your gas guzzling SUV.

I read Tertzakian's recent book, and it's fairly good. At least there are a few respectable energy analysts who recognized the peak in light sweet crude past in 2005.

[ColossalContrarian]

I read this today and found the following statement very ambiguous...

"...Tertzakian doesn't align himself with the "peak oil" theory..."

WTF is that supposed to mean?

What he's describing IS Peak Oil…

Well at least we see PO making it into the media more and more. Slowly warning the masses of things to come…

[bobbyald]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ertzakian doesn't align himself with the "peak oil" theory...However, he acknowledged that production of light, sweet crude oil...probably already has peaked

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')his is one intentionally confused peak oil article...

[seahorse2]

"Lifestyle change"? - "I see dead people."

[TreebeardsUncle]

Hi.
The following related article came out on Wednesday, November 8th, 2006 in the San Francisco Chronicle. I am going to quote the first 4 paragraphs in full, because people may have difficulty in accessing the whole article and because the point is significant.


Agency Warns of Energy Decline

Globlal group urges countries to curb growth of demand
by Jane Wardell, Associated Press

LONDON - The international Energy Agency called on governments to curb growth in energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions as it warned Tuesday the world;s energy supply is rapidly running out.
The agency said the global energy needs witll surge by 53% over the next quarter century and that crude oil prices could exceed $100 a barrel by 2030 as countries rapidly consume more energy, particularly emerging econimies such as India and China .
China is expected to overtake the US as the world's biggest emitter of carbon dioxide before 2010, the Paris-based agency added in its 2006 World Energy Outlook.
"On current trends, we are on course for a dirty, expensive, and unsustainable energy future, the agency's executive director, Claude Mandil, said at the report's presentation in London. "In response, urgent government action is required. The key word is urgent."

Anyway, the article goes on for 7 more paragraphs, the most important of which is probably the follwing.

It predicts tahat world oil demand will reach 116 million barrels per day in 2030, up from 84 million barrels in 2005. Global carbon dioxide emmissions are anticipated to reach 40 gigatons in 2030, a 55 percent increase over today's level.

The article also states $20 trillion is neeeded to be spend on power, oil, and gas production to meet demand.

A few things: When these newspaper articles say things like "oil prices could exceed" and global temperatures "may increase" one can translate that to mean will. 100/barrel is a low estimate. I expect the price/barrel could easily exceed $200 by then.
A lot of folks here probably doubt that the world can even produce 116 million barrels/day and that bio-fuels can make up the difference even if the sufficiently humid tropical landmasses are used primarily for that purpose. At the very least, the energy invested per energy returned and associated cost will certainly continue to increase. Also, the likely increase of at least 55% in carbon dioxide emissions should greatly accelerate the already noticable effects of global warming, and cast asside any pretexts that global warming will be slowed or its effects mitigated.
Finally note, that this is the cautious, somewhat cornucopianm IEA talking that has predicted an estimate date of peak oil production somewhere around 2037, right? Any thoughts on this?

Geoff

[Revi]

If these timid agencies and people are shrieking that we should reduce our fossil fuel use, it may get to the people who matter. We can only hope that somebody is whispering in the ear of power that we should do something and soon. What they'll do is another matter.