by The_Toecutter » Wed 01 Nov 2006, 01:08:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am afraid the historical facts say otherwise. Jevon's Paradox. As prices have fallen recently, gasoline consumption has resurged. Put something on sale and people will buy more of it. Will they drive in circles? No, but they will drive more.
By your graph, the mileage and fuel rate trends increased gradually, while the fuel economy trend had a sudden but small dip.
Jevons paradox has limitations. If all new cars sold tomorrow suddenly had a 70 mpg average or ran on batteries thus having 1/3 the fuel + maintenance cost, this doesn't mean people would immediately start driving 3 times as much.
Americans already spend about 1 hour each day in their cars. Where are they even going to get the time to spend 3 driving that much more?
One could argue that increased consumption in developing nations could offset these savings, but this is only the case precisely because industry encourages such consumption through globalization to maximize profit. Often, the unsustainable economic model of the U.S. has been forced onto other nations at gunpoint.
To prevent a dieoff, we need conservation, and can do it. But industry and government want something else. Jevon's paradox is a symptom of this, but should energy use end up managed instead of exclusively distributed to he who has the money to pay for it based on the prices manipulated by the corporate sector, Jevon's paradox doesn't have to be a factor. That's precisely what a voluntary powerdown would entail! Conscious energy management, as opposed to irrational consumption habits. Energy resources must be removed from the control of for-profit corporations for this to happen or alternatively, these for-profit corporations must answer to someone other than shareholders for a change and pay for their external costs which they currently dump to the public at large.
Jevon's paradox has the following restraints or caveats:
-Put something on sale, and people will buy more of it. However, people will buy as much as they want, and not as much as they can, provided what they want to buy is less than what they have the potential to buy.
-It is a phenominon that ignores excess consumption being encouraged to maximize corporate profit, whether by refusing to build efficient or long-lasting products, or by manipulating the price to encourage consumption in a given direction
-Jevon's paradox is an observation. It is by no means garunteed, but instead an educated guess one might be able to make based on past trends and empiricle data. It is a good guess, but not a certain guess.
-Post peak oil we WILL have a decreased supply of oil. We will not be able to increase consumption beyond geological limits, despite Jevon's paradox suggesting that consumption should still increase if we increase the efficiency by which we use the oil. Conservation will make each barrel of oil that can be extracted do more much than it does today.
-On an individual as opposed to a collective basis, Jevon's paradox isn't completely applicable. One individual person can certainly increase their efficiency and reduce their resource consumption for the same living standard, regardless of what goes on outside their sphere of consumption.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he_Toecutter, tis a pleasant, simple, and sustainable vision. The powers that be will never let it come to pass.
This is precisely why we are likely to have a dieoff. The powers that be are pushing society towards the Mad Max scenario because it is making them money. But it doesn't have to be this way, if society would by some miracle get its ass in gear. Ecotopia is not impossible.
I'm sure you're all familiar with Castanza's four visions of the future. If there are unlimited resources, society will lead to "Star Trek" if extravagent resource use is public policy, and "Big Government" if controlled resource use becomes public policy to solve the world's energy crisis. If there are limited resources, extravagent resource use will lead to "Mad Max", while controlled resource use will give us the "Ecotopia" scenario.
We live in a world of limited resources. It's either Ecotopia, or Mad Max. Which one do you think your typical person would want if they knew about peak oil? Which one does big business and our government want and which direction are they heading as a result? Conflict of interest... The powers that be are ensuring our own demise so that they can make money. Alternatives that could have reduced our oil consumption and a sustainable economic system have been prevented from becoming reality because of their insatiable drive for profit and control. There's not much more or less to it than that.