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The Oil Market

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Efficient Market

Postby TommyJefferson » Mon 23 Oct 2006, 12:03:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bulldozer', 'I') find it interesting that this organization is so strongly allied with The Cato Institute. They show a strong disinterest in more relevant questions about the way we live.


Cherry-picking.

Libertarianism is based upon rationality. Christians don't like that.
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Re: Efficient Market

Postby bulldozer » Mon 23 Oct 2006, 14:55:17

Didn't Thomas Jefferson die bankrupt?
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Re: Efficient Market

Postby coyote » Mon 23 Oct 2006, 19:59:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bulldozer', 'I')t is as though they feel so entitled to so many comforts... that they are willing to forego rationality to continue believing they deserve them.

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Re: Efficient Market

Postby Ludi » Mon 23 Oct 2006, 20:44:42

What is the Biblical support for free markets, specifically, what did Jesus teach about free markets?

As I recall, Jesus is recorded as saying "If you wish to be perfect, sell all you have and give to the poor, and follow me." Not much there about free markets....
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Re: Efficient Market

Postby WildRose » Mon 23 Oct 2006, 22:17:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bulldozer', '
')It is as though they feel so entitled to so many comforts(much more unflappable than the sense of entitlement many socialists express directly) that they are willing to forego rationality to continue believing they deserve them. Just follow the right rituals, and every family can have at least two cars, a house in the suburbs, a riding lawn mower, a big screen tv, a fast growing Stock Portfolio, and not have to live near too-many-black-people or the workers who make most of the merchandise we consume. I realise Christianity means we don't have to be Jewish anymore, but does anyone remember the story about the Golden Calf?



There are some churches that teach their congregations that God wants them to be wealthy, to have the best of everything, in essence, to have a piece of heaven on earth. I read a recent article in Time magazine about this issue; the article presented the viewpoint of the churches that ascribe to God wanting people to have material wealth and also the opposing viewpoint of the more traditional churches. Both sides, of course, presented scripture to support their teachings.
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Re: Efficient Market

Postby MrBill » Tue 24 Oct 2006, 03:40:44

Quoted from the webpage.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and the author of Beyond Good Intentions: A Biblical View of Politics (Crossway Books) and The Politics of Plunder: Misgovernment in Washington (Transaction Books). This article is adapted from The Free Market.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © by Covenant Community Church of Orange County 1991


Bulldozer, I find it very interesting that you would take one special interest group's take on God and energy politics, and take it for granted that other Christian groups in the USA hold similar views. What is your agenda then?
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Re: Efficient Market

Postby Micki » Tue 24 Oct 2006, 07:16:10

Jesus wasn't very judgemental.
i.e. he mingled a mit with soldiers and didn't condemed them for killing people.
He did however say; it is easier for a camel to get through a needles eye than for a rich man to go to heaven.

My take on this is that it is not so much the wealth that is the problem but what it tends to do to people.

He also enjoyed some of the finer things in life like having his hair and feet massaged with expensive oil.
This despite some disciples complaining that the oil could have been sold to raise funds for the poor.

My take on all this is, don't get too hooked up on the details.
Make your money in a ethical honest way and share plenty with others but don't go broke doing it.
I am sure noone is going to burn for eternity because they had some large figures left in the account.
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Re: Efficient Market

Postby bulldozer » Tue 24 Oct 2006, 12:40:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')
Bulldozer, I find it very interesting that you would take one special interest group's take on God and energy politics, and take it for granted that other Christian groups in the USA hold similar views. What is your agenda then?


I apologize if you feel lumped in with the trend described above. The group I described is the one most strongly associated with blocks of voters who support the present regime under George W. Bush. I certainly don't use them as a definition of Christianity.

I'm sure most of the people in the group and general trend of groups I described are at least average decent people, however misguided they are in trying to stand up for themselves in this scary changing world.

Nor do I begrudge or envy people having more wealth than me. It is when they do so through policies which I see leading us to disaster and large segments of the population becoming worse off that I take a stance which may be wrongly construed as anti-money.
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Re: Efficient Market

Postby MrBill » Wed 25 Oct 2006, 05:12:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bulldozer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')
Bulldozer, I find it very interesting that you would take one special interest group's take on God and energy politics, and take it for granted that other Christian groups in the USA hold similar views. What is your agenda then?


I apologize if you feel lumped in with the trend described above. The group I described is the one most strongly associated with blocks of voters who support the present regime under George W. Bush. I certainly don't use them as a definition of Christianity.

I'm sure most of the people in the group and general trend of groups I described are at least average decent people, however misguided they are in trying to stand up for themselves in this scary changing world.

Nor do I begrudge or envy people having more wealth than me. It is when they do so through policies which I see leading us to disaster and large segments of the population becoming worse off that I take a stance which may be wrongly construed as anti-money.


No, not me, I believe in a strongly democratic, secular society. Religion has no place in politics in my opinion. Not if political institutions are to function to serve all persons regardless of race or religion for example. It is fine if like minded people want to vote as a block, but I get nervous when the moral majority or even a vocal minority start to push their own views and opinions on others.
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Re: Efficient Market

Postby joewp » Wed 25 Oct 2006, 19:49:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')hat is the Biblical support for free markets, specifically, what did Jesus teach about free markets?

As I recall, Jesus is recorded as saying "If you wish to be perfect, sell all you have and give to the poor, and follow me." Not much there about free markets....


Not only that, the only time he exhibited any violence was when throwing the money changers out of the temple.[sup]*[/sup] Money changers (i.e. bankers) are the driving force behind our debt-based, fractional-reserve, constant-growth banking system.








[sup]*[/sup]I'm talking about "Jesus" the same way I talk about Frodo or Gandalf, strictly as fictional characters in fictional stories.
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Re: Efficient Market

Postby Ludi » Wed 25 Oct 2006, 21:10:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '[')sup]*[/sup]I'm talking about "Jesus" the same way I talk about Frodo or Gandalf, strictly as fictional characters in fictional stories.


Yeah, I understand that, but we can still look at what these characters are depicted as saying and make some guesses about their values, etc. Jesus may have enjoyed having his feet rubbed with oil, but he didn't say to the rich young man, "Don't worry, keep your riches and you'll be just fine, you're doin' good kid." As you recall, the rich young man went away disappointed, because he didn't want to take that extra step and sell his belongings and follow Jesus. Jesus didn't indicate in that conversation that the rich young man would be able to keep his riches and still follow Jesus, in fact, it seems clear that he could not do so, as he went away disappointed. He did not follow Jesus. He chose his riches over being "perfect."

"Be perfect, even as your Father in Heaven is perfect" said Jesus to his followers. He didn't say "Be like everyone else, gather your riches and enjoy them."
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Re: Efficient Market

Postby MrBill » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 03:04:51

Assuming any of us know exactly what Jesus actually said considering nothing was written down until after 30-years after his death. Do you remember exact conversations and events as they happened over 30-years ago?

Plus they were written in old Assyrian language and then translated numerous times over the centuries often by a corrupt Church that had its own political agenda. And we know that they altered passages to show that Jesus was not just a Prophet, but the Son of God, and born without sin for example.

So that is fine if that is what you believe, but I have a hard time believing that good people that do no harm are going to rot in Hell whether or not they choose to follow Jesus or not? My belief in God certainly allow for alternative faiths to co-exist in a peaceful way with no one religion being better than the next, which by the way in the Bible is known as the sin of pride and the sin of religion.

In God's plan He obviously put natural resources on this planet to be used. He never guaranteed us that they would be infinite in supply however. Get used to it.

If banks did not exist, we would soon invent them. What nonsense you people speak sometimes. We (collectively) gave some guy a Nobel type prize for giving micro-credit to the poor and everyone (collectively again) thought that was the greatest thing whereas I see it as an admission of our (collective) inability to tackle the real underlying problems of corruption that do not allow real banks to cater to the needs of people in developing countries.

But I will probably rot in Hell for my points of view, so this life and this earth is all I have in the meantime. You might remember that Jesus also said, love thy God and love thy neighbor. There is no vow of poverty in that simple, but eloquent statement.
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Re: Efficient Market

Postby WildRose » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 12:21:12

Very well said, Mr. Bill!

Without getting into what all I believe, I'll just say that many fine people I've known don't often step inside a church.
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Re: Efficient Market

Postby joewp » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 21:26:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I')f banks did not exist, we would soon invent them.


Maybe, but they certainly wouldn't be institutions that loan out ten times more then they have in assets!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')But I will probably rot in Hell for my points of view, so this life and this earth is all I have in the meantime. You might remember that Jesus also said, love thy God and love thy neighbor. There is no vow of poverty in that simple, but eloquent statement.


I'll look for you in hell. :-D

However, I believe their is a vow of non-greediness in love thy neighbor. Being a finite planet, if you gather as much to yourself as you can, you're not loving your neighbor, you're leaving less for him, maybe even less than necessary for survival.
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Re: Efficient Market

Postby MrBill » Fri 27 Oct 2006, 03:09:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever, I believe their is a vow of non-greediness in love thy neighbor. Being a finite planet, if you gather as much to yourself as you can, you're not loving your neighbor, you're leaving less for him, maybe even less than necessary for survival.
_________________


Agreed. A simple, good life lived to its fullest is best. Or as I say, it is not that life is too short, it is that death is real long, so live this life as best as you can.

Those that need to consume for their fulfillment are probably the most hollow ones who need something to fill their emptiness. That of course is a generalization, but I get your point. Thanks.
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Re: Efficient Market

Postby bulldozer » Sun 29 Oct 2006, 14:23:36

There's no need for us to to become ascetics taking vows of poverty.

there's enough juice for us to have lighting and running water and heat and good food. the more we don't squander on daily commutes, fast fashion cycles, driving kids to school and soccer games, and shipping raw materials back and fourth between continenets, the more oil we have for the worthwhile stuff.

On an Wind in the Willows scale + a little more, we can keep going indefintely.

Poverty is relative. Poverty is perception. When we outsource manufacturing to spend more on advertising and cheaper tvs and media devices to recieve that advertising and lifestyle marketing, we are creating more poverty than we solve. We are creating the poverty of Envy.

Most Americans in Poverty have far more than the students outperforming them in developing countries. So you see...

35 percent of cancer cases are tied to diet(over eating) and lifestyle(cars, tv, mindlessness). 60 to 70 percent of health problems are tied to diet and exercise....there is no need to produce meat the way we have been for the last 40 to 50 years. There is every reason to embrace greater diversity and shorter shipping distances in agriculture for highly perishable food items(meat, fruits, greens)

The solutions are are highly attainable, in this country. Our problem will be the highly overpopulated regions of the world going nuts: Mexico, China, Indonesia, India, Japan, etc.
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Tighter oil market likely in 2007, analyst says

Postby JohnnyMac » Thu 21 Dec 2006, 10:59:37

Tighter oil market likely in 2007, analyst says 12/11/2006 Oil & Gas Journal

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he oil market is likely to tighten in 2007 with global demand for crude up by 1.7 million b/d, non-OPEC production growing by just 1 million b/d, and only a 1.1 million b/d increase in refining capacity, said Edward L. Morse, managing director and chief energy economist for Lehman Bros. Inc., New York.

World demand for crude rose by 5.2 million b/d from 2002 to 2005, or an average 1.7 million b/d/year. The consensus is for 2006 demand growth to be just over 1 million b/d, but Lehman Bros. puts it at 1.2 million b/d.

The reason for the 2006 demand reduction from the previous average was not the escalation of prices as some might speculate but the “incredible distortion” of supply and demand fundamentals caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.

Damage inflicted by those hurricanes and the associated surge in energy prices depressed US demand until last April. But since April, US energy demand has been stronger than prehurricane 2005, Morse said Dec. 5 at an annual oil and gas conference hosted by Deloitte & Touche in Houston.

The 2006 market also was weighed down by fuel switching in electric power generation. US demand for residual fuel was reduced by 400,000 b/d as a result of lower natural gas prices. But Morse sees no room for further substitution in 2007.

Demand outlook
“Barring any unforeseen incidents, I can’t see how demand can fail to grow at less than 1.7 million b/d” in 2007, Morse said. He sees US oil demand increasing by 250,000-350,000 b/d in 2007, compared with an average growth of 293,000 b/d/year in 1995-2005. US demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel should grow by 300,000 b/d, even if the 2006-07 winter proves to be warmer than normal. But cold weather and fuel substitution could add another 200,000 b/d or more, said Morse.

China’s demand growth is pegged at 500,000-700,000 b/d in 2007 from an average of 395,000 b/d/year in 1995-2005. Controlled product prices in China have resulted in “rationed demand,” said Morse. Chinese refiners have been losing money on domestic sales of petroleum products and have restrained production availability in response. As product prices are liberalized, that pent-up demand could add 150,000 b/d to China’s basic demand growth.

Other emerging Asian markets should add another 200,000 b/d of demand growth. The “torrid economic growth” in the Middle East “will likely add at least 350,000 b/d” of oil demand growth, Morse said.

Energy intensity-the measure of the energy efficiency of a nation’s economy, calculated as units of energy per unit of gross domestic product-is falling, Morse said. The amount of oil necessary to produce a given level of gross domestic production is declining as a result of “economic maturing,” conservation, and increased energy. In 1995-2005, global GDP growth averaged 3% vs. a 1.7% average oil demand growth.

Yet US oil intensity is almost double that of Japan and western European countries, while China and India stand at twice the world average. Oil-intensive countries, of course, run increased risks from sustained high crude prices, which have increased because of greater demand.

Morse noted the “gradual numbing” of consumers to higher oil prices, since world demand for crude increased annually September 2002-September 2005 despite rising crude prices.

Production outlook
The International Energy Agency in Paris and OPEC members expect non-OPEC supply growth to be equal to or better than demand growth. IEA is projecting non-OPEC production will grow 1.68 million b/d, while a more optimistic OPEC sees non-OPEC production growing by 1.77 million b/d. But Lehman Bros. figures non-OPEC production will grow by only 1 million b/d-“perhaps by much less, depending on disruptions in 2007.” Added production by non-OPEC countries will come primarily from off West Africa, the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, and the Caspian region, Morse said.

Morse said OPEC output would need to increase “by at least 700,000 b/d” to meeting incremental demand in 2007, but the cartel’s growth capacity is limited. That means tight oil markets in 2007, “perhaps very tight,” he said. At this point, crude production capacity all depends on developments within the OPEC countries, with continued political risks in Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela.

Lehman Bros. is projecting distillation and upgrading capacity to grow substantially by the end of this decade, with planned gross additions of 1.5 million b/d in 2008, 1.9 million in 2009, and 3.2 million b/d in 2010.


http://www.ogj.com/display_article/2793 ... lyst-says/
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Re: Tighter oil market likely in 2007, analyst says

Postby erb » Thu 21 Dec 2006, 12:51:33

Like a fist squeezing some play-doh... the market tightens and things are going to start seeping through the seams
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Re: Tighter oil market likely in 2007, analyst says

Postby eastbay » Thu 21 Dec 2006, 12:56:35

..... and the price of oil drops another buck. Too wierd.
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Re: Tighter oil market likely in 2007, analyst says

Postby EnergyHog » Thu 21 Dec 2006, 21:03:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '.').... and the price of oil drops another buck. Too wierd.


Not weird according to your sig.
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