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Can War save us?

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Can War save us?

Unread postby Korg » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 13:29:07

Not to be morbid but consider.....

If peak oil causes a major world war where the west wins, but the population is reduced by 50% wouldn't our oil demand also be cut in half giving the rest of us a heck of a lot more time and impetus to solve the energy problem?

Not that this is a preferable outcome but just pondering given how if WW3 does erupt nukes and bios can wipe out alot of people real fast...
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Unread postby PhilBiker » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 13:56:31

How can you not be morbid when thinking about the inevitable massive scale die-off? I personally think death by Megaton or Mega-bio-weapon would be preferable to long slow starvation, but that's just me. Unlike most on this site I have no illusions regarding the survivability of the coming crisis.
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Unread postby Permanently_Baffled » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 14:34:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PhilBiker', 'H')ow can you not be morbid when thinking about the inevitable massive scale die-off?


LOL :lol: Good point!

Truoble is with this tactic is that even if you removed china/india/japan off the world map completely it would only save you circa 14mpd, whats that about 7 years worth of post peak depletion? :cry:

PB :)
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Unread postby Korg » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 14:46:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ruoble is with this tactic is that even if you removed china/india/japan off the world map completely it would only save you circa 14mpd, whats that about 7 years worth of post peak depletion?


Not so much the 14mpd but it would totally restructure the way the world works. Life as we know it would cease to be. We would have to regroup and that would give us an opportunity to face PO. After all, it would have caused WW3 and if billions of people are dead that would be a big incentive to reduce our dependency and do things that are now impossible.( like reduce SUV, needless travel, agribusiness, huge military)

Think about the US with only 150 million people and our current knowledge/technology and you can come up with a pretty efficient economy that would be focused on solving the energy problem, not on what to buy next.
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Unread postby BlueGhost » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 15:04:07

As stated in the Asimov novel, if you have an event which wipes out a significant percentage of the human race, whats to stop that event wiping out the whole race?

China has nukes and in all probability bio weapons. I'd rather not see the suggestion that removing 50% of the worlds population though war is a workable idea.
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Unread postby Korg » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 15:10:35

No one is suggesting it is a good thing, just that it could happen given the amount of weapons in the world and if everyone let loose in a final battle for oil it just might.

Question is....might that save humanity or are we doomed to sloooowly starve down to 500 million people? Might it be better to get it over with and move on?

Just wondering.
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Unread postby UncoveringTruths » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 15:47:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Q')uestion is....might that save humanity or are we doomed to sloooowly starve down to 500 million people? Might it be better to get it over with and move on?


What natural resources would the other 50% have to work with afterwards? There would be nothing to move on with.
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Unread postby bart » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 16:20:19

To me, there is something sick about discussing this as a reasonable possibility or even bringing this topic up.

What's wrong with you folks?

It reminds of my experiences with sociopaths. They would talk of crimes and the suffering of other people, with no emotional affect, just as they would talk about the mother of a famiily dying as if she were a piece of furniture or a worn out stereo.

I've got to think it's because most of us don't have much direct experience of death and violence. Maybe we get our attitudes from video games and the media, in which one participates in violence with impunity. I notice in all these doomsday scenarios, the narrator and "we" always win. Got news for you -- if there's widespread violence, you can't switch the channel. Wars in foreign countries are going to come back home to haunt us.
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Unread postby americandream » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 16:39:44

I agree Bart. I reckon these dudes would piss their pants if the crap hit the wall.
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Unread postby Free » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 17:08:24

Without wanting to sound antiamerican, it seems to me that a lot of Americans think that war and violence will solve problems. Many seem powermad because of the military might of the US. "Nuke em baby, we will show them" etc.

I think its because many Americans just dont know what war really is. For them its a TV-show, like you correctly stated. You had your last war on US soil in the 19th century, and it was even a civil war. You are still "traumatized" because of the loss of the Vietnam War, because you lost a couple of thousand US-SOLDIERS in that war. What are the Vietnamese to do with millions of dead CIVILIANS?

We in Europe lost as many soldiers as you in Vietnam War in some battles of WW1 in ONE DAY! Every country in Europe is deeply remembering what war does, the killing, starving, raping, looting....

I dont want to be condescending, but just reminding you why many people on this planet think that war should be only the ultimate resort...
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Unread postby airstrip1 » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 17:51:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I') agree Bart. I reckon these dudes would piss their pants if the crap hit the wall.


They should sit down and watch Sidney Lumet's movie 'Fail Safe' followed by the films 'The Day After', 'The War Game' and 'Threads'. All these have their flaws but they do manage to get over the all encompassing horror of global nuclear war. Anyone who thinks that such a conflict between superpowers can actually be won is simply crazy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_War_Game
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Unread postby UncoveringTruths » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 17:56:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat's wrong with you folks?


It would be helpful if you would address who you were exactly typing to. [smilie=dontknow.gif]
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Unread postby Coolman » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 18:58:19

Look people, Peak Oil is a scary situation. It puts all our so called horror movies to shame. We are all going to be scared. I know I will, I am already deadly fucking scared. I have had dreams about Nuclear War and it is scary as fucking hell and the dream is not real. The best thing we can do in the future no matter how bad it gets is not to panic cause when you panic it is hard to think. But its ok to shit your pants, after all no one is Rambo.
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Unread postby Coolman » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 19:00:58

Also this situation is deadly fucking serious, but as Matt Savinar suggests we do need to have a sense of humor because the future is not going to be fun.
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Unread postby bart » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 19:27:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Uncovering Truths', '
')It would be helpful if you would address who you were exactly typing to.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', '
')What's wrong with you folks?


I don't want to single anyone out. Truth is, all of us probably lapse into this way of thinking from time to time: "Let's just bomb them and get it over with."

The point is that we can think twice before going public with it.
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Absolutely

Unread postby fred2 » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 19:41:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'W')ithout wanting to sound antiamerican, it seems to me that a lot of Americans think that war and violence will solve problems. Many seem powermad because of the military might of the US. "Nuke em baby, we will show them" etc.

I think its because many Americans just dont know what war really is. For them its a TV-show, like you correctly stated. You had your last war on US soil in the 19th century, and it was even a civil war. You are still "traumatized" because of the loss of the Vietnam War, because you lost a couple of thousand US-SOLDIERS in that war. What are the Vietnamese to do with millions of dead CIVILIANS?

We in Europe lost as many soldiers as you in Vietnam War in some battles of WW1 in ONE DAY! Every country in Europe is deeply remembering what war does, the killing, starving, raping, looting....

I dont want to be condescending, but just reminding you why many people on this planet think that war should be only the ultimate resort...


Well said, and very true. WWII cost 40 million lives roughly, and much of Europe was destroyed. Yet look at Europe now - in many ways a much more advanced society than the US. Just think about healthcare, our legal systems, levels of crime and poverty. Beneath the drive to ever closer relations within the EU, is the knowledge that we can never afford a disaster like WWII again, and there has never been military conflict within the EC/EU.

This is an experience the US has never had on its soil. As for 9/11, its a drop in the bucket compared to WWII, yet the US expects everyone else on the planet to more or less drop everything and support their 'war on terror'. The US would be much better off trying to truly understand why there are people in Arab nations that hate them so much - and doing something about the core problem. Which is: Israel.

The US's swashbuckling approach to international relations simply doesnt do it any favours long term. For a start, prosecuting a war on the other side of the planet in a country where the vast majority want you out, isn't exactly a smart thing to do. Vietnam should not be forgotten: the US lost, despite dropping more tonnage of bombs than all sides in WWII put together. When, in future, the US really does need to call on international support for a real problem, it shouldnt be too surprised if many countries disappoint them. Treat people like sh*t and eventually you'll get treated that way yourself.
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Unread postby _sluimers_ » Thu 02 Dec 2004, 23:39:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Permanently_Baffled', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PhilBiker', 'H')ow can you not be morbid when thinking about the inevitable massive scale die-off?


LOL :lol: Good point!

Truoble is with this tactic is that even if you removed china/india/japan off the world map completely it would only save you circa 14mpd, whats that about 7 years worth of post peak depletion? :cry:

PB :)


Hey, I know. Let's just kick the USA off the map. They import like 11million barrels per day. They also have huge oil reserves. Enough to feed the rest of the world for years to come.

Ya know, somehow, I've got the feeling that this great and simple solution won't be agreed by many on this board, even though it frees up more oil than china. I wonder why that is... :-D
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Unread postby Korg » Fri 03 Dec 2004, 12:28:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o me, there is something sick about discussing this as a reasonable possibility or even bringing this topic up.

What's wrong with you folks?


I would say the same thing about Peak Oil. This entire website is about the end of civilization as we know it. How much more sick/scary/depressing can a topic be? This means my kids are going to grow up insome kind of MAD Max hell of a world.

I know that everyone (including me) want to think that when oil peaks that we will find a way out ( it may be tough but we will do it) but history speaks against it. When resources get scarce sooner or later there is war. And since this will be the mother of all scarcities this will be the mother of all wars. You can already see the US, Russia, China, India making the first moves on the board. This implies that they will not cooperate but will fight it out. I think everone in their gut knows this but its damn hard to come to grips with( including me).

It reminds me of the 1930's...everyone knew that war was coming, the smart prepared. The Neville Chamberlains of the world ignored it, they paid the price. Same thing now.

Think how desperate China is going to get in a few years! Whats to stop them from marching 50 million men into the Persian gulf and declaring that the oil is theirs?? China is a dictatorship like Germany was and its very easy for a dictator to make bold moves that a democracy could never make. Remember Saddam and Kuwait?? If Saddam had nukes or 50 million men he would own all of the oil now.

If we average joes can sit here discussing the end of civilization without oil, believe me, The leaders of the major countries of the world are preparing for it and whoever loses this time, will never recover, there won't be the energy to do it.

So before you all atttack me as a sociopath, think it through. This is the biggest issue to EVER hit the world. Don't be suprised at how countries respond. Right now Saudi Arabia is holding their finger in the dike but when Ghawar dies, all bets are off. That will be the signal for the endgame to commence.
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Unread postby Olaf » Fri 03 Dec 2004, 13:07:50

Simply stating that wiping out 50% of the people of the world would allow the rest more time to come up with solutions is a tragic simplification. For example, if we were to somehow manage to bomb China, with no retaliation, which would be a miracle in itself, there would be severe impact on us and the rest of the world. Financially (China is a great financer of our economy), resources and goods (last I checked, we import a fair amount from there). Just scratch off that economy...and everyone elses while your at it.

This does not even bring into slight consideration damage that woud be done to this planet by a strike large enough to do bring about the deaths of half the worlds population.

I too see alot of government and military positioning, not just in the U.S., but around the world. That is the part that scares me. I think that is the darker side of the path we do not want to travel.

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Probalitly spread

Unread postby PenultimatMan » Fri 03 Dec 2004, 13:43:39

PROBABILTY: Human Extinction : 42
PROBABILTY: Industrial Scociety
Extinction : 39
PROBABILITY: US victory : 11
PROBABILITY: China victory : 6
PROBABILITY: US & China destroyed
Europe intact 3
PROBABILITY: Everything hunkydory: 0

I know: rip-off from Alien.
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