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THE Detroit Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Detroit Urban Hell Hole.

Unread postby Eli » Mon 15 Aug 2005, 15:46:54

Some suburbs are not as bad as others and there did used to be a corner grocer on every corner.

Zoning laws can be changed along with density. Kunstler is also not a fan of the mega citys either as I remember.

My point is this some suburbs will survive and change same for citys.
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Re: Detroit Urban Hell Hole.

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 15 Aug 2005, 15:58:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'S')ome suburbs are not as bad as others and there did used to be a corner grocer on every corner.

Zoning laws can be changed along with density. Kunstler is also not a fan of the mega citys either as I remember.

My point is this some suburbs will survive and change same for citys.


There were never 'corner grocers' in any of the above suburbs.
The ones that did have corner grocers probably still have corner grocers. Those suburbs will survive.
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Re: Detroit Urban Hell Hole.

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 15 Aug 2005, 16:05:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')hat suburb is fairly dense.

You could put a bus stop or two in there and send people out to the city for work.

The setup of the suburb in that picture is workable.

People will have to walk a little bit further to get to a bus stop or a grocery store, but you can knock down a few houses and replace them with stores.


Nope, while your example is more extreme, the example that I gave above is not workable, in the sense that a simple retrofit of a trolley stop and a corner market will make it work. Post-PO suburbs cannot exist at that density. The rule of thumb for transit is the 'five-minute walk'. Simply put, in order for a transit-based suburb to work efficiently and effectively, it must not take more than five minutes to reach from edge to center (node). Perhaps 50-75 homes in the above picture would fit that definition, at any one place, and that includes hopping over neighbor's fences to get to the stop. It takes many more people than that to make a bus stop feasible, much less a rail stop. These suburbs were designed around the car. Your time is better spent making a 'green' car than making these suburbs fit a 'mass-transit' model of development.

Oh, and your "knocking down the houses" to put up stores comment:
Could it be Kelo v. New London at work? 8O
Last edited by emersonbiggins on Mon 15 Aug 2005, 16:28:53, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Detroit Urban Hell Hole.

Unread postby holmes » Mon 15 Aug 2005, 16:15:02

REMEMBER!

The most fertile land is/was under the cities. This is gone.

The next most fertile is under the suburbs. Pretty much mixed up with infertile, nutrient depleted construction fill, industrial pollutants, asphalt, concrete, trash, etcc.... not much good for producing high energy food yields.

We have this nbasty habit of eating ourselves. strange this is how other civilizations went out. not nearly at this scale though.

hey kudos to all those suburbs that are going utopian, eco-village and communal. hope all go that way. where are the earthship villages? where are the off grid self sustained suburbs? better do it asap.
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Re: Detroit Urban Hell Hole.

Unread postby dgacioch » Mon 15 Aug 2005, 19:09:39

Alright, i live in a detroit suburb and while I dont think the city is going to go through a rebirth, it does have some positive attributes which could help it get through the peak. Alright, lets go through some of the bad, first off police and fire protection is crap and getting worse. The nail in the coffin was when the michigan legislature outlawed residency requirements for city workers. Almost all the city employees who made decent salaries got the hell out of dodge. This has contributed a great deal to the budget and blight issues which are getting worse not better in my opinion. There is very limited mass transit. We did have trolley lines years ago, those are of course long gone and replaced with an aged decaying bus line (semta) which has been underfunded for years. There is the people mover downtown but thats mainly to move drunken hockey fans and gm employees from parking lots to stadiums and office buildings. I dont even want to go into the school system. Its problems are essentially unsolvable and going to get worse. Detroit teachers may strike this year as the district is imposing a mandatory 10% wage cut for all school district employees.

Now, the good. Aside from some condos springing up around our new stadiums there hasnt been new housing built in the city since the 60's. White flight has now turned to black flight as well and the citys population continues to plummet. There are lots of empty lots, heck empty blocks where only 1 or two houses have people actually living in them. A lot of this vacant property could be turned back into farmland ( I know that seems unreal but parts of the city are almost like a ghosttown nowadays). The city has access to both fresh water and sewage treatment and will benefit in the future from the revenue streams brought in by them. The dwsd serves over 100 communites for both water and sewage disposal. It has both gas and coal fired powerplants and they may get expensive to run, but I imagine the power will be in place for quite a while. Detroit has river access on the great lakes and rail lines to bring goods in. With proper planning detroit could become a model for urban/rural combined living as vacant housing and long abandoned factories could be cleaned up and converted back into farmland. The easy access to an abundant supply of freshwater makes it feasable in my opinion. However, politics being what they are I doubt it happens. The concept of an urban farm is simply crazy to most politicians. Condo's bring in tax revenue. Increasing population figures mean more governement aid money coming in. This is whats important to them. The fact that no one lives in whole neighborhoods now and are not paying taxes while they still have to provide police/fire protection for these areas seems to elude them.
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Re: Detroit Urban Hell Hole.

Unread postby mgibbons19 » Mon 15 Aug 2005, 19:46:14

You might want to read some of the books on this. There are some good ones, and some shaky ones. One of the reasons I stuck with Kunstler is that he strikes me as NOT being too biased sometimes. I don't like how intellectuals just hate the suburbs. Too much like the party line. But if you read some of Kunstler's work, one of the things that stands out is that it is fairly analytical. As in "the suburbs are problematic because they are inefficient, the inefficiencies are ...."

Good ones to start with are his
Geography of Nowhere and Home from Nowhere

If you want to read some others, or don't want to read Kunstler, I'ld recommend Suburban Nation by Duaney, Plater-Zyberk, and Speck.

You are thinking good analytical stuff, but it seems like you could use a little more of the background. Forgive me if I assume improperly.
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Re: Detroit Urban Hell Hole.

Unread postby Peepers » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 23:54:48

Let me suggest another couple of books that I highly recommend:

> Reclaiming our cities and towns - better living with less traffic, By David Engwicht

> The New Transit Town - best practices in transit-oriented development, By Hank Dittmar and Gloria Ohland

As for the two pictures posted on the first page of this string, there is something "wrong" with both of them, at least in terms of survivability in the post-peak oil era.

It's the lack of mixed uses.

Both have distinct residential areas, which are segregated from retail and commercial clusters. That requires all but the most committed pedestrians and cyclists to drive. If you mix the land uses, preferably by stacking them vertically, you make it much easier to make the same daily trips to the store, cafe or restaurant without having to hop in the car. That kind of land use actually discourages car use, because the car becomes an albatross that's no longer necessary in such a setting.

It's one of the reasons why the auto industry shortly before World War II (read about GM's City of Tomorrow display at the New York World's Fair in 1939) began advocating for a new urbanized land use designs. The auto industry advocated heavily for segregated land uses, and it soon became "common knowledge" that corner stores were "traffic hazards." The only traffic hazard was that corner stores reduced traffic -- that was a hazard for the auto industry.

Neither land use shown in those two pictures is dense enough to create a critical mass necessary to support transit use or walking to any meaningful degree. And, the wide, sweeping streets lack any traffic-calming features to ensure a safe and pleasant walking or biking experience.

Read those books I mentioned earlier. They will describe, far better than I can, the land uses necessary to wean ourselves from our auto/oil addiction.
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Re: Detroit Urban Hell Hole.

Unread postby wildsparrow » Wed 17 Aug 2005, 04:59:43

As for the comment "Some of these neighbourhoods have NEVER had grocery stores on every corner" - well, there is absolutely no reason why they can't. If a suburb gets organised and on Fletcher street No.1 grows apples, no.2 grows oranges, no.3 grows cherries and so on. Then on Shaw St. they all grow veggies. Or what EVER way is best to organise it. Sure you could have a grocery store on every corner. Why not? Just turn a house into a store. If suburbs wake up and realise that is the best way to feed their neighbourhood.
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Re: Detroit Urban Hell Hole.

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Wed 17 Aug 2005, 10:49:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wildsparrow', 'A')s for the comment "Some of these neighbourhoods have NEVER had grocery stores on every corner" - well, there is absolutely no reason why they can't. If a suburb gets organised and on Fletcher street No.1 grows apples, no.2 grows oranges, no.3 grows cherries and so on. Then on Shaw St. they all grow veggies. Or what EVER way is best to organise it. Sure you could have a grocery store on every corner. Why not? Just turn a house into a store. If suburbs wake up and realise that is the best way to feed their neighbourhood.


When push comes to shove and you have to open up a fruit stand just to survive in suburbia, I think you would make the wise decision to move to a more sustainable form of development, e.g. small town, old 'streetcar' suburb, rather than wasting your efforts on what's already 'laid in stone'. If you're stuck, I suppose you'll make the best of a bad situation, but methinks you'll be just a bit smarter than that.
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Detroit Sees Cheap Gas as History

Unread postby thorn » Tue 29 Aug 2006, 11:13:32

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/29/business/29auto.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')OLEDO, Ohio, Aug. 28 — The Chrysler Group, which depends more heavily on sales of pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles than any other Detroit automaker, said Monday that it expected gasoline prices to remain at $3 to $4 a gallon for the rest of this decade.

The comments by Thomas W. LaSorda, Chrysler’s chief executive, are the first time a Detroit automaker has issued a specific forecast on gas prices since they began climbing to $3 a gallon and higher.

Ford’s chief sales analyst agreed Monday that high gas prices were not a temporary phenomenon, although he did not cite a price range. The analyst, George Pipas, said the auto company expected gas prices to remain high, volatile and unpredictable.

... Asked about gasoline prices, Mr. Pipas, of Ford, said, “We don’t see the price of gasoline returning to the levels that we all enjoyed in the 90’s and the early part of this decade.” He went on, “The base case assumption around which we’re planning our business is that gas prices remain high. The days of inexpensive gasoline are gone.”

Mr. Pipas declined to be specific about how high gas prices may rise. “I think only a fool would forecast gas prices,” he said.
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Re: Detroit Sees Cheap Gas as History

Unread postby aahala » Tue 29 Aug 2006, 11:36:23

The analyst, George Pipas, said the auto company expected gas prices to remain high, volatile and unpredictable.

What the? If you believe prices will be unpredictable, how can you expect them to be high or volatile? If you expect them to be high, then they are not expected to be volatile or unpredictable and if volatile, then they are neither expected to be high nor unpredictable. With such confused ideas as this, no wonder the car companies are in trouble.
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Re: Detroit Sees Cheap Gas as History

Unread postby FairMaiden » Tue 29 Aug 2006, 12:47:51

aahala, I don't see a problem with that statement at all - volatile and unpredictable are NOT contradictions...volatile means unstable and changeable...you can say that something is going to stay high but still change rapidly and be unstable...what is wrong with that? He's basically saying high prices are here to stay...but how high he's not willing to predict. If you look at the lastest oil prices website you'll see that changes of $2-3 in a few hours is what we already see happening...but its staying over the $70 range, which is definitely HIGH.
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Re: Detroit Sees Cheap Gas as History

Unread postby ClubOfRomeII » Tue 29 Aug 2006, 13:44:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FairMaiden', '.')..but its staying over the $70 range, which is definitely HIGH.

It went UNDER $70 today...what are we going to do? How can we sell bomb shelters and MRE's if the price keeps going DOWN!! I say we all buy SUV's and fix this temporary aberration!

And in non silly mode, $70 isn't high. $100 is high, but if it can't crack $90, it ain't even higher than the 70's yet. And expressed as a percent of income, even at the $3/gal here in the States, its a smaller percentage of the budget than it was back then.
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Re: Detroit Sees Cheap Gas as History

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 29 Aug 2006, 21:04:10

Per what we were talking about the other day, I think they are only halfway there. They assume that gas will be expensive, but available.

They don't apparently assume that gas will be subject to shortages in various places, or be rationed, or in limited supply. There's a fine but important distinction.
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Re: Detroit Sees Cheap Gas as History

Unread postby grabby » Wed 30 Aug 2006, 02:33:36

I wwould really like to see a graph with the x axis the months from 1950 and the y access total dollars spent on fuel which is gallons times price per gallon.
I would bet that it will continue in a linear pattern even when oil gets reduced. in quantity (meaning very expensive.)
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Re: Detroit Sees Cheap Gas as History

Unread postby Bleep » Wed 30 Aug 2006, 08:58:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', 'I')t went UNDER $70 today...what are we going to do? How can we sell bomb shelters and MRE's if the price keeps going DOWN!!

I say we all buy SUV's and fix this temporary aberration!

And in non silly mode, $70 isn't high. $100 is high, but if it can't crack $90, it ain't even higher than the 70's yet. And expressed as a percent of income, even at the $3/gal here in the States, its a smaller percentage of the budget than it was back then.

Right on track for $80/barrel 200-day-moving average by next summer:
Image

The red-black line is the daily closing price of West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTIC), a benchmark light crude price that heavy oils are priced at offsets to. The line is black when the price increases and red when it falls. The blue line is the average of the previous 200 days of the red-black line. Since 2004 the blue line never falls, only goes up or stays level. This shows when you smooth out short-term fluctuations in price a steady-state increase is actually occurring.

Extrapolate the trend and you will see $80 average in summer 2007.

http://community.livejournal.com/peak_oil/441376.html
http://community.livejournal.com/peak_oil/508399.html
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Re: Detroit Sees Cheap Gas as History

Unread postby ClubOfRomeII » Wed 30 Aug 2006, 10:54:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bleep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', 'I')t went UNDER $70 today...what are we going to do? How can we sell bomb shelters and MRE's if the price keeps going DOWN!!

I say we all buy SUV's and fix this temporary aberration!

And in non silly mode, $70 isn't high. $100 is high, but if it can't crack $90, it ain't even higher than the 70's yet. And expressed as a percent of income, even at the $3/gal here in the States, its a smaller percentage of the budget than it was back then.

Right on track for $80/barrel 200-day-moving average by next summer:
Image

The red-black line is the daily closing price of West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTIC), a benchmark light crude price that heavy oils are priced at offsets to. The line is black when the price increases and red when it falls. The blue line is the average of the previous 200 days of the red-black line. Since 2004 the blue line never falls, only goes up or stays level. This shows when you smooth out short-term fluctuations in price a steady-state increase is actually occurring.

Extrapolate the trend and you will see $80 average in summer 2007.

http://community.livejournal.com/peak_oil/441376.html
http://community.livejournal.com/peak_oil/508399.html


Now adjust it for inflation and PLEASE don't use only time periods you are interested in to prove a point, run it back to 1960.

Then we can talk about steady state increases in the 70's, and steady state decrease in the 80's and 90's, etc etc.
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Congrats, ALCzervik

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sat 21 Oct 2006, 20:10:43

Detroit makes it to the World Series for the first time since they beat San Diego in 1984. I hope you guys do it again. Take those punks from St. Louis out in 4! BTW, for those of you outside the US, The World Series is where the US champion teams from the two professional US baseball leagues play a best of seven series. The first to win 4 games is the Champion Of The World!! heh heh.
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Re: Congrats, ALCzervik

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Sat 21 Oct 2006, 20:14:39

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The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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