$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', '
')The underlying force will be the resource and energy base and contraction here will translate into a contracted standard of living, at best.
PeakOil is You
The "Peak Oil Depression"
Re: The "Peak Oil Depression"
by MrBill » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 03:10:26
I hear ya and I think many people at PO.com think this is how it's gonna go down. But I think the real question is will the economy go with a resource base decline or some manufactured "perception" of it ahead of schedule. I vote for the latter for numerous previously stated reasons and I've yet to see a strong counter argument against it.
And that is where we fundamentally disagree. I also see the underlying force as being resource and energy base contraction leading to lower standards of living for the majority. I see money supply as being either restrictive or stimulative, therefore either postponing or hastening that day.
Technology may smooth the landing, but most of us here, do not see viable alternatives, at least not on the near horizon, and they may still mean lower standards of living for the majority, but at least avoid collapse. Technology doing not just more, quicker, but also doing the same amount of work with less.
But I do not think it will be a manufactured perception of resource and energy contraction by the powerful whoever they are? The problems are real enough and there is no where to run and no where to hide to continue to prosper while your neighbors are struggling to survive.
I lived in some CIS countries after the wall came down in the 1990's. I was well paid by a foreign firm, but I still had to live in neighborhoods where people were struggling to get by in those days. It is very uncomfortable. You go in to a store to buy groceries. Many others are there to see what they can afford to buy and then leave empty handed. Meanwhile, you stick out like a sore thumb. Not speaking the language properly. Better dressed. Being able to buy staples that are for the others luxury goods. Nevermind being targeted by organized crime and petty criminals either on the street, at home or in the office. My experience is not different than many of my friends that have worked in places like Columbia or Nigeria. The same problems.
So it is in the richest quartile's interest to have a middle class to insulate themselves from the poorest quartile. It improves their standard of living and protects them from everyday violence. Believe me, I would much sooner we well-off in a wealthy country than rich in a poor country. The question for me is how to engineer that with fewer and fewer resources when so many do not share my points of views? ; - )
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: The "Peak Oil Depression"
by dr_doom » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 04:48:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut I do not think it will be a manufactured perception of resource and energy contraction by the powerful whoever they are? The problems are real enough and there is no where to run and no where to hide to continue to prosper while your neighbors are struggling to survive.
I think what mmasters was talking about by "manufactured perception"
was that of explaining away economic shocks, such as an abrupt
forex correction.
The most obvious one is the huge trade-imbalance / currency manipulation
the chinese central bank is engaged in with the USD.
Scary as it is for me to think about, it seems inevitable that in the
not-too-distant future, china will abandon the dollar. And when that
happens it will be revalued accordingly. Conservatively the price
of everything could triple overnight, assuming the decline isn't parabolic,
in which case you can expect things to go from "normal" to "anarchic"
very quickly.
This is why TPTB have given Haliburton contracts to build these huge
"immigration" centres in the middle of the desert.
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Re: The "Peak Oil Depression"
by mmasters » Thu 19 Oct 2006, 11:17:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think what mmasters was talking about by "manufactured perception"
was that of explaining away economic shocks, such as an abrupt
forex correction.
was that of explaining away economic shocks, such as an abrupt
forex correction.
Exactly.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he most obvious one is the huge trade-imbalance / currency manipulation
the chinese central bank is engaged in with the USD.
Scary as it is for me to think about, it seems inevitable that in the
not-too-distant future, china will abandon the dollar. And when that
happens it will be revalued accordingly. Conservatively the price
of everything could triple overnight, assuming the decline isn't parabolic,
in which case you can expect things to go from "normal" to "anarchic"
very quickly.
This is why TPTB have given Haliburton contracts to build these huge
"immigration" centres in the middle of the desert.
While it has the potential to go down that path I'm not so sure it will. I think what we've really done is a merger of sorts with China. Basically since the US has failed on the oil grab in the middle east its superpower status has fallen so a merge with China was conjured up to form a new entity to take up the slack.
Also if you notice things like the housing market boom in the US, it's not unique to the US, the central banks work in concert to an extent I think few realize. I think this isn't necessarily that they're all in bed together but more that a governence was built into the world banking infrastructure and is facilitated mainly through the FED, IMF, World Bank, BOE and the Basel committee.
I think we're going the path of the superpower club and if you're not in the club you will get slowly economically shut out.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')r. Bill: But I do not think it will be a manufactured perception of resource and energy contraction by the powerful whoever they are? The problems are real enough and there is no where to run and no where to hide to continue to prosper while your neighbors are struggling to survive.
Like I mentioned the governance structure above I think it's in a large way geared at serving the superpowers (where correspondingly most of the elite tied into running the show live). Additionally these people marginally care about the middle class neighborhoods, and they could care less about nigeria and columbia.
I absolutely think there is a global elite. I think they are more powerful than most realize but I don't think they are all that great, they screw up a lot. They run gameplans that don't work or go as planned, some have unintended consequences and blow up in their face. (Vietnam, Iraq, etc...) I think the depression was planned to some extent but it didn't quite go as dreamed up and there was difficulty getting the US back on its feet. This crowd, as much as they run the strategic game plans they run lots of tactical ones to clean up all the stinking messes. It's like any big corporation. I've worked in a few powerful corporations in new york it's the same kind of animal.
So we've got a boom in healthcare going to some extent now and I think the next logical step is a boom in the security industry (which is already starting to happen to some extent) and then maybe a boom in localized food production or some such. That would probably be enough for the rich to have a cushion to sit on where the PO propaganda switch is hit and the playing field starts to go flat below them.
The power exists by a small group of people to initiate a world depression, I think the question to ask is when the desire will become strong enough that that power is used. My guess is sometime ahead of the PO cliff because after that this power will diminish with the natural failure of the world economic system due to diminishing liquid fuels.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') see money supply as being either restrictive or stimulative, therefore either postponing or hastening that day.
I suppose I don't see it as quite this one-dimensional. The scenario I'm proposing is where it is restrictive for most, stimulative for a few, hastens the reckoning for most and postpones it long term for a few.
