[The_Toecutter]

Jevon's paradox has its limitations. If our cars were to use one fifth the energy they do today, this does not mean people would drive five times as much(lest they start spending 8-10 hours a day in their cars, which is an absurd notion).

[sch_peakoiler]

yes, Jevons Paradox has its saturation point. The question is, where this point lies. I do not know whether JP could eat up a 5x increase in USA, but it surely would in the world. If you really manage to decrease oil usage in USA by increasing efficiency, then this extra oil will easily be eaten up by other countries. There are many people in the third world and developing countries who can affort a car but can afford the fuel. This would then change.

And talking about America, I still think a 5x increase would be eaten up by growing consumtion. it means everybody would be able to drive whereever he wants.... difficult to calculate actually.
But anyway, see my first paragraph

[Graeme]

I think consumption will be affected by the price of oil. This is anticipated to begin to rise sharply again in 2008 as peak oil starts to take affect.

http://energy.seekingalpha.com/article/18436

But then again I and this analyst could be wrong. It's quite difficult to predict the price of oil.

[The_Toecutter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'y')es, Jevons Paradox has its saturation point. The question is, where this point lies. I do not know whether JP could eat up a 5x increase in USA, but it surely would in the world. If you really manage to decrease oil usage in USA by increasing efficiency, then this extra oil will easily be eaten up by other countries. There are many people in the third world and developing countries who can affort a car but can afford the fuel. This would then change.

And talking about America, I still think a 5x increase would be eaten up by growing consumtion. it means everybody would be able to drive whereever he wants.... difficult to calculate actually.

[Graeme]

I think we'll adapt with or without government interference. If Cuba can do it, so can we.

[The_Toecutter]

Cuba is not the U.S.

Entirely different set of variables to deal with there...

You may be correct in your assumption, but I wouldn't bet on it. I don't mean to imply that my assumptions are any more valid, either. Take that as you will.

[Graeme]

I've just read this article and discovered that they do not have any economic growth forecast. One weakness. Another I take issue with is their statement that the wind and geothermal output is limited, and I think that the US wind and geothermal lobby would agree with me. These would be better for the environment and perhaps cheaper to use than coal.

[The_Toecutter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hese would be better for the environment and perhaps cheaper to use than coal.

[Graeme]

The_Toecutter, You raise an interesting point. Will the new energy economy be profitable? I suppose the new technologies will but will the new renewable energy technologies be profitable to big business given that much of the alternative energy can be generated at home? I wonder if that is why hydrogen is being pushed so much because it will still be centralised. I'll start a new thread in the Energy Technolgy section.