[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'G')old soars to unbelievable heights, a worldwide depression ensues which is then attributed to natural causes (peak oil). The world as a whole generally embraces a gold standard for a number of years. Things don't improve. Gold crashes as the world is sold a bill of goods on a new "world currency". Things improve and perhaps at this point a marginal replacement has been found for oil to help drive the "world economy". If one isn't found, that's ok, we'll all be forced to accept new ways of living but the world bankers will still manage to reap immense profit from installing a world system regardless, and at the end of the day, it is the next best thing.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't believe that bankers conspired to cause the crash of '29.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't believe that bankers conspired to cause the crash of '29.

[mmasters]

The thing though is control and self preservation.

The industrial powers of the US became very great in the early 20th century and become to some extent outside of the banks control. The depression redistributed this control back to the banks. Additionally with the fruit generated from the industrial boom, substancial people and investment weren't needed anymore. The same thing has happened with computer technology more recently.

Surely if the bankers tighten they will create a terrible crisis, but wont peak oil make for an even worse crisis? This is why I predict in a few years peak oil will hit the mass media. Then, the bankers have an excuse to tighten whereas they can reasonably blame the resulting deflation on peak oil. This would actually avert the PO disaster for many years while at the same time robbing the masses and setting the stage for further fleecing. This scenario beautifully allows for control and self preservation of the banking scheme.

I'm betting on gold myself too. More along the lines though that whatever way it goes at some point it will get ugly and people will lose confidence in either fiat or the economy (or both) and go for gold. The trick though is that banks control the gold and once everyone jumps on board it's still their game.

So we could go to some gold standard whereas nothing would improve, the economy would stagnate and that would set the populace up to be sold on some new world monetary system (future fleecing).

Or gold just becomes a temporary bubble for people to dump their wealth into, where afterwards it is crashed, and a wealth transfer is mobilized to preserve the current system. Then all the gold is bought back up on the cheap in the aftermath.

Currently my strategy is when the great gold bubble forms to partially cash out and secure other value assets. But surely as things unravel the right strategy will be more apparent.

[threadbear]

McMasters, The price of oil would be ameliorated by a global recession/depression, as people would use much less and the price would drop.

Also, instead of prices going up after Opec recently declared a cut in production, prices drop? huh? That's not supposed to happen.

Speculative frenzy accounted for at least 20% of the price per barrel, and probably more. Political instability counted for another 20%.

The drop in oil price is due to doubt that Israel or US will bomb Iran. This political factor punctured a hole in the oil price bubble through which the hot speculative money came gushing out. And now it sits at 58.00. Shouldn't happen according to die hard peak oil gloom and doomers. Growing unyielding demand should be creating horrific imbalances, with supply shrunk to a puddle, unable to keep up.

The opposite is occuring with Strategic petroleum reserves full, OPec announcing cuts, and prices DROPPING.

So much for peak oil being an alarming and immediate problem of epic proportions reducing us to pre Cro-Magnon man, cannibalizing our neighbours.

Your financial plans look interesting. If you're thinking of buying land, where do you plan to buy?

[mmasters]

Yeah I think all the immediate financial doom is premature too. It will take some time to play out.

You're right about the price of oil getting killed in a depression along with the buying power of most everyone. Plus the lower price would allow substancial hoarding by the rich, what a set up!

So the end result is a great oil conservation perhaps allowing the necessary time to develop a replacement. That fails then the rich have all the oil so it isn't exactly a failure for them...

Far as land I'm thinking the Northwest US in general.

[spudbuddy]

I think Mr. Bill wrote one of the most provocative comments that have shown up on this board:

"using the distant threat of peak oil as an excuse for not taking control of their lives..."

We can cast our eye about and consider how much instant gratification is going on these days.
Politicians see a 4-year future, after which they may or may not yearn for re-election.
Corporations play for the short-term profits.
Continuously rising debt says grab it now, make hay while the sun shines, and worry about tomorrow sometime later...........

A reasonably astute alien creature from another world would view ours with no small concern....Shanghai busy morphing itself into a quadruple-Manhattan, and why, and for what?
Silly pride, really.

No Mad Max fantasy, or Swiss Family Robinson survival Disneyfied illusionary master plan will ever change the unalterable fact that probably somewhere upwards of 90% of the population of this planet will get caught with their pants down, absolutely.

Massive die-off scenarios aside, this calls for astute leadership and taking charge of resources, (for the benefit of humankind) and will not be solved by any great American heroic and otherwise individualistic behavior. That just happens in the movies.

The vast majority of human beings, on any continent you choose, are busy - yea, overworked - just trying to get by. The biggest game in town is coping with a stressful existence, financially, politically, socially...
Whatever grass roots kind of movement can bring about change, to make any real kind of difference, it must incorporate an act of public will which transcends the political. For the good of us all, and not just a privileged few.
For we do not go gently into that good night. Believe it.

[MrBill]

I hope that websites like PO.com can serve as public places where people at least think about these long term challenges if not propose some solutions to these impending problems. Otherwise it is just a place to rant. Another form of instant gratification as you mentioned. Thanks. Have a great weekend. Cheers.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spudbuddy', 'W')e can cast our eye about and consider how much instant gratification is going on these days.
Politicians see a 4-year future, after which they may or may not yearn for re-election.
Corporations play for the short-term profits.
Continuously rising debt says grab it now, make hay while the sun shines, and worry about tomorrow sometime later...........

[mmasters]

::removed double post::

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', ' ') Monetary reform is the only real solution. ::removed double post::

[mmasters]

Yeah yeah, I mean't central bank problem with that "monetary reform" comment.

Resource depletion is another animal. But hey, how about the central banks buying more time by triggering a depression. If you're in the upper class it's a solution.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'Y')eah yeah, I mean't central bank problem with that "monetary reform" comment.

Resource depletion is another animal. But hey, how about the central banks buying more time by triggering a depression. If you're in the upper class it's a solution.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')I know you're brilliant. I am not.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')I know you're brilliant. I am not.

[mark]

What a great thread, combines my interest in economics and history with a smidgen of religion.

I have thought a great deal about the proper response to the near-by future. I’ve listened to the advocates of inflation vs. deflation yet still don’t know which one to believe. In peak oil terms I can’t help but ask if we’re not being manipulated once again; so even there I’m not sure. The one area where I’ve come to a conclusion is over population and the exponential function presented by Dr. Bartlett. Also, William Catton’s book, Overshoot, presents a similarly convincing argument with similar consequences.

Did anyone else see this article? It’s from last week Mogambo Guru. I read this book some time ago but have forgotten how relevant it is. Gustav Le Bon wrote The Crowd in 1895, and this quote is today most relevant: “The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduces them. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim.”

So, I’ve come to the conclusion that I may never know what’s best to do. Nor am I likely to convince anyone that there are real problems in our immediate future that no one can escape. Therefore, it is groups that will survive, perhaps even thrive whatever our future may be. Groups have the advantage of members with different skills so that no matter the circumstances the group will survive.

I’ve also come to the conclusion that the most important events to affect us are going on in the deep background, removed and hidden from us mere mortals. I also believe that it’s fruitless, even damaging, to get caught up in that effort. That rabbit hole is so deep as to likely drive one crazy even if you are somehow able to discern the “real truth.”

MrBill’s list seems the most prudent to me with one addition – form your groups now while there is still relative freedom and prosperity. Don’t try to bring people around to your views, just accept those who, on their own, have come to similar conclusions as you.

[gego]

If the question is about a post peak depression then I think there will be one irrespective of the rate of expansion or contraction of the money supply.

My definition of a depression is a time when people have noticeably less economically. On average, the economic pie has been expanding faster than the population for decades. This is becasue of the resource input, most principally energy, and technology (a speeding up of resource use). If the energy is no longer available in sufficient quantities to keep the pie expanding, and it actually contracts, then people will have to do with less (a depression). The more the pie contracts, the less people will have and the larger will be the depression. Once the resources are no longer available to use faster, technology will fall flat on its face.

Money supply expansion and contraction may be tools the FED and government have used to manage economic activity in the past, and to shift wealth out of the hands of the many into the hands of the few, but all the expansion of the money supply will do very little to make energy appear out of thin air, like the FED creates money out of thin air. The underlying force will be the resource and energy base and contraction here will translate into a contracted standard of living, at best.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark', ' ')Don’t try to bring people around to your views, just accept those who, on their own, have come to similar conclusions as you.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', '
')The underlying force will be the resource and energy base and contraction here will translate into a contracted standard of living, at best.

[threadbear]

I was watching Charlie Rose interviewing Gorbachev last night. Rose was reliably irritating, but Gorbachev was fantastic. He managed to slip in a question to Rose, almost as an aside, "Did you know that your govt now has 2 aircraft carriers on their way to Iran?"

Rose responded in the negative and quickly changed the subject. If this is true, if these yahoos really do intend to fight Iran, this would kickstart one hellacious depression by sending the price of oil through the roof. Sy Hersch thinks they're going to do it.

Other than oil immediately going up in price, I wonder what other specific features of a depression an attack on Iran would set off in the immediate aftermath.