Peak Grain news

by **advancedatheist** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 00:51:18

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0c021878-5a16-1 ... e2340.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')rain stockpiles at lowest for 25 years
By Kevin Morrison in London

Published: October 12 2006 18:48 | Last updated: October 12 2006 18:48

The world’s stockpiles of wheat are at their lowest level in more than a quarter century, according to the US Department of Agriculture, which on Thursday slashed its forecasts for global wheat and corn production.

The lower forecasts were largely attributable to the severe drought in Australia, where the forecast for this year’s wheat crop was cut by 8.5m tons to 11m. That is less than half of the 24m produced last year, of which about 17m went to exports. . .

The USDA, which provides one of the most authoritative reports on global grain markets, said global wheat production would fall by 11m tons to 585.1m, causing global stockpiles to drop a further 7.1m from its previous forecast, to 119.3m. This represents a fall of 20 per cent from a year ago, putting stocks at their lowest level since 1981.

“The concern now is what happens next year. If we have poor conditions for growing wheat again, supplies could get very tight and we might see some demand rationing,” said Dan Cekander, grains analyst at Fimat.

by **seldom_seen** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 00:57:04

knock knock
who's there?
malthus
malthus who?
lots of malthus to feed

by **Zardoz** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 01:00:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '.')..malthus...

by **Lighthouse** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 01:11:38

ahem, would you please stop calling "Peak-[whatever]"

Peak oil is based on oil production. The concept can not be used 1:1 for other resources.

Otherwise we will reach Peak Bla-Bla here and no-one with half a brain will take us serious anymore (not that they do now, but that is a different story).

by **max_power29** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 01:54:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'I')s it our goal to be taken seriously?

We will never be taken seriously, and we will never be given any credit for our precience.

Instead, we will be snubbed.

Peak grain, I agree, is a misuse. We could produce 10x more grain each year, every year, if we chose to. We don't.

Oil peak is independent of our desire to make more.

by **Zardoz** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 03:27:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '.')..We could produce 10x more grain each year, every year, if we chose to...

by **Colorado-Valley** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 03:42:25

"However, it's very annoying when your wife in in denial."

Heh. My wife understood peak oil right away. But instead of worrying about it, she just learned how to grow a humungous garden and now she happily cans everything.

Weird ...

:-D

by **bellebouche** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 03:53:19

Interesting article from the FT that.

Trying to think through the medium term ramifications of the changes in market prices (wheat +56% in the year to date, corn futures surging 35% in a month).

Another thing that seems startling is the downturn in production in US corn... against a background demand that will surely increase...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.').. the USDA cut crop estimates... said that 800,000 fewer acres were growing corn than had previously been expected.

by **Lighthouse** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 04:14:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'I')s it our goal to be taken seriously?

by **Doly** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 04:32:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'a')hem, would you please stop calling "Peak-[whatever]"

Peak oil is based on oil production. The concept can not be used 1:1 for other resources.

by **Cloud9** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 07:00:12

Is that the third horseman I hear? "A quart of wheat for a day's wages, and three quarts of barley for a day's wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!"

by **Peakprepper** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 07:08:06

If anyone is interested, I can post long-term charts of grain prices (wheat, soybeans, corn) going back to the 80's.

by **MrBill** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 07:36:06

Re: Peak Grain news
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he USDA, which provides one of the most authoritative reports on global grain markets, said global wheat production would fall by 11m tons to 585.1m, causing global stockpiles to drop a further 7.1m from its previous forecast, to 119.3m. This represents a fall of 20 per cent from a year ago, putting stocks at their lowest level since 1981.

by **Doly** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 08:15:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '
') As a preliminary matter, some huge percent (90%?) of U.S. soy and corn production goes toward feeding meat stock.

So as a simple matter, all of that could be converted to growing wheat for human consumption. This is true around the world.

Then, if we wanted, we could convert/start currently non-used but arable tracks of land to grow wheat.

I'd be surprised if we couldn't get 10x the yield.

by **markcl** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 08:25:23

farming in South Dakota is not a free ticket to $$$. rain was short this year and if you remember back fuel has been high all year,that has moved to higher costs for parts ,tires,hauling and the list goes on.All land was farmed but much wasn't harvested
mark

by **MrBill** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 08:30:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '
') As a preliminary matter, some huge percent (90%?) of U.S. soy and corn production goes toward feeding meat stock.

So as a simple matter, all of that could be converted to growing wheat for human consumption. This is true around the world.

Then, if we wanted, we could convert/start currently non-used but arable tracks of land to grow wheat.

I'd be surprised if we couldn't get 10x the yield.

by **ReserveGrowthRulz** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 09:46:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'a')hem, would you please stop calling "Peak-[whatever]"

by **Battle_Scarred_Galactico** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 10:01:24

The last vegan that argued with me that she hadn't eaten meat or drank milk or used animal products of any kind in 8-years, and never felt better, got bitten by a mosquito in Africa and died of malaria this year.

I agree 100% with your views on vegans, they always look tremedously unhealthy and have zero muscle, but wouldn't catching malaria in Africa finish off pretty much anyone. Its' not exactly a beacon of medical science out there.

by **yesplease** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 10:02:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')he last vegan that argued with me that she hadn't eaten meat or drank milk or used animal products of any kind in 8-years, and never felt better, got bitten by a mosquito in Africa and died of malaria this year. A tough lesson, but we need a balanced diet. Not just to live, but to survive illness and disease.

Cut population numbers not balanced nutrition.

by **Dreamtwister** » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 10:11:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peakprepper', 'I')f anyone is interested, I can post long-term charts of grain prices (wheat, soybeans, corn) going back to the 80's.

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