PeakOil is You
THE Automaker Thread (merged)
Re: Automakers choice of H2 over electric
by The_Toecutter » Sun 08 Oct 2006, 23:05:27
When considering an alternative to oil as viable, I look for 'developed' as opposed to 'is developing'. The latter usually doesn't mean or even imply that a working and feasible model has been developed.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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The_Toecutter - Intermediate Crude
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Re: Automakers choice of H2 over electric
by Graeme » Thu 12 Oct 2006, 14:40:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', 'M')eanwhile, electricity is everwhere, and even if you produce your own via solar or wind, it would STILL be cheaper to run an electric car off of it than to purchase gas so long as gas is above $1.50/gallon or so.
This is consistent with another proposal by City College (NY) researchers posted here:
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic24301.html
Don't you think that consumer demand for PHEV and EV's that are cheaper to run will win in the end? Or do you (and for that matter the Auto Coys) think that H2 will be cheaper? I think there will be an interesting battle between these 2 options, and one will win.
Last edited by Graeme on Thu 12 Oct 2006, 16:14:14, edited 1 time in total.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
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Graeme - Fusion
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Re: Automakers choice of H2 over electric
by gnm » Thu 12 Oct 2006, 15:04:35
Great sysnopsis Toecutter...
What I see as one of the downsides to EV's is the eventual replacement cost of the batter pack. Generally (4?) years is what I have heard and I would think it could be even sooner given daily commuting. Then you are looking at a high replacement cost for the whole pack. Perhaps if these were widely available some sort of small payment system with dealers could be done to minimize the hit.
In general I agree totally with Toecutter. It can be done, with current tech.
Lithium batteries or hypercapacitors would only make it an even better deal.
-G
What I see as one of the downsides to EV's is the eventual replacement cost of the batter pack. Generally (4?) years is what I have heard and I would think it could be even sooner given daily commuting. Then you are looking at a high replacement cost for the whole pack. Perhaps if these were widely available some sort of small payment system with dealers could be done to minimize the hit.
In general I agree totally with Toecutter. It can be done, with current tech.
Lithium batteries or hypercapacitors would only make it an even better deal.
-G
- gnm
Re: Automakers choice of H2 over electric
by The_Toecutter » Thu 12 Oct 2006, 21:17:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat I see as one of the downsides to EV's is the eventual replacement cost of the batter pack. Generally (4?) years is what I have heard and I would think it could be even sooner given daily commuting. Then you are looking at a high replacement cost for the whole pack. Perhaps if these were widely available some sort of small payment system with dealers could be done to minimize the hit.
a) Battery life depends on the chemistry. Nickel based batteries can have a shelf life in decades, while a lead acid or Li Ion pack won't give you much more than 5-7 years if properly cared for, less if not properly cared for.
b) Battery cost depends on production volume relative to automobile needs. Currently, Li Ion are ~$500-700/kWh, but if produced in automotive volume, AC Propulsion claims it would drop to $250/kWh. Large size NiMH would have been $150/kWh in volume for 20,000 cars per year in the 1990s according to Robert Stemple, chairman of Energy Conversion Devices, and today, UC Davis claims ~$220/kWh in same volume, but without this volume and with Chevron Texaco sitting on the Ovonic patent, they are at ~$1,000/kWh today.
The 26 kWh NiMH pack used in the Toyota RAV4 EV cost around $20,000. This battery pack price is due to it being hand built. It has proven a longevity of at minimum 150,000 miles in real world applications, but no one knows just how much longer they will last. In mass production for automotive volume, this pack would be more closer to $6,000-8,000. Cobasys quotes a conservative 1,200 cycles to 80% discharge, while UC Davis quotes a more optimistic 1,750 cycles to 100% discharge given Southern California Edison's study of NiMH in fleet use. However, Chevron prevents large AH NiMH from ever being produced. Do a little math on theoretical cost per mile of say, a 40 kWh NiMH pack in a car with 200 miles range. It's depressing given that this option is being denied. You'd almost have to give gasoline away for free for a gasoline powered car to break even in operating cost with an electric using this battery, under the condition of mass production for automotive volume.
Tesla warrantees its Li Ion pack to 100,000 miles. The ONLY way it will ever last that long is if Tesla's cooling system and BMS is as good as they claim. Since about 40% of their development costs went on managing 7,000 individual batteries, and given AC Propulsion's previous successes with this battery, I'm inclined to believe they can achieve that. Li Ion allows about 400-500 cycles to 100% discharge. Do the math for a 250 mile range car. Then factor in if properly managed by computer, a Li Ion battery pack will lose 2-4% of capacity per year.
Hobbyists driving around in EVs with lead acid batteries would see cost parity with their gasoline counterparts around $1.00-1.50/gallon. Basically, a $800-$1,200 flooded lead acid battery pack will last ~15,000-30,000 miles, and a properly sized and managed AGM battery pack costing ~$2,000-$2,500 will last in theory 20,000-50,000 miles. However, most hobbyists ignore battery regulation and proper charging algorithm if using AGM batteries, and this greatly shortens their life to around 10,000-20,000 miles, making cost parity with gasoline cars well over $3.00/gallon. Those that do pay attention to this issue with AGMs get excellent life out of them. John Wayland's AGM pack in his electric Datsun 1200 has lasted a decade, while John Brian's AGM pack in his electric Karmen Ghia around 8 years.
Basically, if mass produced for automotive volume, NiMH would allow cost parity with gasoline cars well under $.60-1.00/gallon, while Li Ion around $2.50-3.00/gallon, factoring in electricity costs, maintenance, periodic battery replacement, ect.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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The_Toecutter - Intermediate Crude
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Re: Automakers choice of H2 over electric
by The_Toecutter » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 01:02:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')on't you think that consumer demand for PHEV and EV's that are cheaper to run will win in the end? Or do you (and for that matter the Auto Coys) think that H2 will be cheaper? I think there will be an interesting battle between these 2 options, and one will win.
H2 probably won't ever be cheaper. At best, ther fuel alone will achieve the equivalent of about $3.00/gallon gasoline equivalent. However, you also must account for platinum membranes in hydrogen fuel cell cars lasting about 2,000 hours of operation. Got $10,000 for a new one? It wouldn't be so bad if hydrogen 'fuel' were as cheap as electricity per mile(A Li Ion EV battery pack might have a similar price tag and a bit more life than the membrane), but H2 fuel probably won't ever be that cheap. Then there's the expense of the fuel cell stack, and all of the compressors and other mechanical parts a fuel cell car requires, all of which can fail. $300+ per peak horsepower if mass produced? That's going to be a $50,000+ fuel cell car if mass produced. We could be doing battery EVs with greater performance and range for under half that, while having greatly reduced operating costs over not just H2 cars, but gasoline powered cars as well.
Battery EVs have such low operating costs because their source of energy is cheap and they have almost no powertrain maintenance. This greatly outweighs the expense of the battery pack and replacing it, so much so that cost per mile well below that of today's gasoline cars can be achieved. Fuel cell electric cars don't have these advantages and thus the expense of a platinum membrane doesn't get cancelled out.
IMO, we could be doing H2 internal combustion very easily, but it has a lot of downsides compared to a pure battery electric car. The biggest downside is the relative lack of efficiency of H2. But made with electricity, it IS a somewhat viable alternative to oil, just not the most feasible or practical one and probably not scalable to the extent we might need...
The upside, of course, is that conventional ICE cars can have an IC engine swap and a new fuel system so they can be run on H2. But range of this H2 car is going to be even less than many EVs made by hobbyists in their garages that use lead acid batteries, unless the H2 is stored in a metal hydride form. But then that gets a little cost prohibitive.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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The_Toecutter - Intermediate Crude
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