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Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 14:47:02

No Hydrogen Economy Needed: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow researchers at City College of New York are proposing very much the same thing in a policy discussion published in the journal Science. In the September 1 issue, they say the combined use of alternative energies for which we already have reliable technology "could replace all fossil fuel power plants." These sources include concentrated solar thermal energy (in which heat from the sun creates steam to run generators), nuclear energy, geothermal and hydroelectric plants, wind energy, photovoltaic cells, and biomass.

They also claim that plug-in hybrid vehicles could replace 80 percent of the gasoline used in the United States. And they say the use of hydrogen for fuel is a bad idea in most cases--that using electricity directly in vehicles (stored in batteries) rather than to generate hydrogen is three times cheaper.

The catch? A huge price tag. Reducing total fossil-fuel use by 70 percent would cost $200 billion per year for 30 years, outlays the City College researchers hope could be collected through a tax on carbon-dioxide emissions of $50 per ton.


technologyreview
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 16:11:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '
')
They also claim that plug-in hybrid vehicles could replace 80 percent of the gasoline used in the United States.



About time people started recognizing the obvious.

Its scalable, it uses current infrastructure, its cheap considering the benefits across the board, it centralizes CO2 emissions at a single smokestack rather than 50,000 tailpipes, it changes the energy mix to stuff we have alot more of, it changes foreign policy priorities to our advantage, grid fired cars means PV on every rooftop can help transportation needs as well as decreasing electricity generation per capita at the same time, the cost is reasonable and can be mitigated by the government not spending money propping up oil rich areas we ought not to be propping up, and better yet nobody is saying it has to be gasoline which runs the internal combustion side of the hybrid, it can be E85 or natural gas or propane.

Talk about a winner across the board.

Because it makes so much sense it probably won't be recognized or encouraged by the government until AFTER half the country is using it to their advantage, but thats expected.

Me, I'm going for a Tesla when they get cheap enough.
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby chris-h » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 17:02:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '
')
They also claim that plug-in hybrid vehicles could replace 80 percent of the gasoline used in the United States.



About time people started recognizing the obvious.




Sure no problem . If somebody is giving the new plug-in hybrid vehicles free of charge everybody is going to get one . :-D

What nobody is producing plug-in hybrid vehicles now ?
Oh i am sure that we can import those plug-in hybrid vehicles from fantasy land .
If we cannot then our tough decider will sure bomb the fantasy land for stealing our vechicles because our way of life is you know what non negotiable.

After that we will need just a few trillion dollars and a couple of decades to build enough electrical generating capacity because you know plug in hybrids need electricity.

And if you plan to run everything on coal then well just know that burning coal at a rate 20 times faster that before is going to deplete coal 20 times faster....


But those are small details !!!!! I am sure that INNOVATION will save us !!!!
After all jimini cricket is realllll !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby TheTurtle » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 17:16:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', ' ')
Oh i am sure that we can import those plug-in hybrid vehicles from fantasy land .


Hehehe ... that made me laugh. :lol:
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 17:44:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '
')
They also claim that plug-in hybrid vehicles could replace 80 percent of the gasoline used in the United States.



About time people started recognizing the obvious.




Sure no problem . If somebody is giving the new plug-in hybrid vehicles free of charge everybody is going to get one . :-D



Nothing in life is free. And when the average new car price in the US is north of $20G's, I don't figure affording them is near as much a problem as getting the government to subsidize them like they are hybrids which AREN'T plugin.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '
')

What nobody is producing plug-in hybrid vehicles now ?
Oh i am sure that we can import those plug-in hybrid vehicles from fantasy land .


I'll buy mine from Honda or Toyota, just like I do regular cars, as soon as someone drops one in front of me. Unless Tesla can beat them to a reasonable price point first?

If spare time engineers in California can do it for a Prius for no more than a few thousand extra, all I want is for an official Honda/Toyota engineer to build me one in their factory, slap the manufacturers warranty on it and drop it off in their showroom.

Really bugs people that there are quite reasonable solutions out there, doesn't it?
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby sch_peakoiler » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 18:10:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')b]No Hydrogen Economy Needed: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow researchers at City College of New York are proposing very much the same thing in a policy discussion published in the journal Science. In the September 1 issue, they say the combined use of alternative energies for which we already have reliable technology "could replace all fossil fuel power plants." These sources include concentrated solar thermal energy (in which heat from the sun creates steam to run generators), nuclear energy, geothermal and hydroelectric plants, wind energy, photovoltaic cells, and biomass.

They also claim that plug-in hybrid vehicles could replace 80 percent of the gasoline used in the United States. And they say the use of hydrogen for fuel is a bad idea in most cases--that using electricity directly in vehicles (stored in batteries) rather than to generate hydrogen is three times cheaper.

The catch? A huge price tag. Reducing total fossil-fuel use by 70 percent would cost $200 billion per year for 30 years, outlays the City College researchers hope could be collected through a tax on carbon-dioxide emissions of $50 per ton.


technologyreview



They forgot to mention they will probably also have to reduce the energy usage by some 50%. The alternatives can maybe replace current electricity generation, but they will not be able to provide electricity to replase the gasoline with hybrids.

There is only one exception to this : If the neighbour topic on Uran consumption tells us the truth then all energy could be nuclear generated for several enternities to come (yes I know what eternity is), but this has still not happened.

PVs, geothermal, wind, hydro - are no replacement, was estimated already.
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 18:16:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '
')
Peakoil is Peakenergy.



Ah....uummm.....unlikely....possible...sure....but...uummmm....no.
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 18:17:53

Looks like a perfectly feasible solution to me. The problem is implementing it! It needs to be supported (e.g. with tax credits) by government, and everyone needs to know that this is the way to go (again government policy).

Your fantasy land happens to be Japan:

Mitsubishi to sell electric car in the U.S.
And USA. RGR mentioned the Tesla.
I'm sure there will be others from Korea, China and Germany.

The EV's can be recharged with portable renewable energy (solar, wind) at home. Do engineers have to provide all the solutions?

Would you prefer that we just roll over, submit to the inevitable - and do nothing? Why always look for reasons it can't be done. When it comes to the crunch (high oil prices), I think the majority will be looking for leadership and possible solutions like this one.
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 19:01:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', ' ')Do engineers have to provide all the solutions?



Yes. Engineers will solve the problem, and drag all the pessimists screaming and yelling "DOOM! WE MUST HAVE DOOM!!" into the next phase of human species transportation.

I really don't even understand the arguement sometimes, the idea that everything just has to EXPLODE and presto, we'd all rather sit home and die than DO something ( except us engineers). I think that attitude reveals more about the person advocating it than it has anything to do with what actual humans will do under actual economic/peak/problem conditions.
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby Windmills » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 19:40:01

It's not that the plan is entirely unreasonable...on paper. Overall, it sounds alright to me...theoretically.

The problem is the will, the timing, the money, the resources, and the state of the economy when these decisions are finally made, or some plan is finally agreed upon. I think there are plenty of doomers out there who'd appreciate one plan or the other. It's not the end solution that alwasy finds disagreement, but rather the means to that end.

In this case, nuclear power would have to be the primary baseload source. How many nuclear power plants are being built in the US right now? How many are on order? How soon will we need them in order to prevent a serious depression? And how eager is the public going to be about replacing fossil plants and embracing nuclear plants? Will they change their opinions only when it is too late? I don't recall the numbers, but just for the sake of arguement, if we get 20% of electricity from nuclear plants, we'll have to build another 300 to 400 plants just to replace the coal, oil, and gas-fired plants. This is to say nothing of the number of new plants we'll need to support electrified personal transportation.

The problem with many a good plan is that it's likely to remain on the table until it's too late. Once the magic hand of the free market starts to send its signals, the game may already be over. The economy could be weakening at such a rate that we do not have the money and resources to divert to such a massive overhaul of our infrastructure. At that point, the powerdown scenario may be forced upon us. If we need 20 years to make the conversion, can we do it during 20 years of economic decline of unprecedented rate and magnitude?

Part of the doomer crowd perspective derives from the fact that no one is doing anything of significance at this time. There are not enough people who are aware. Of those that are aware, not everyone agrees it's an immediate problem. Of those that do, not all agree on what the best plan of action is. So, at this point, there is only a tiny crowd of people that are ready and willing to take action. How many times has peak oil been mentioned in this election cycle? I'll be shocked if it's mentioned in the presidential debates. We more likely to hear about more flag burning and gay marriage.
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby EnergySpin » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 19:49:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', 'I') If we need 20 years to make the conversion, can we do it during 20 years of economic decline of unprecedented rate and magnitude?

You are deprived of your cheap Chinese crap while the plants are being built. Once the plants are built, you may have your cheap chinese crap back.

Why is it impossible for the modern Westerner to grap as simple a concept as: "I work my ass off, no play so that my kids can live better?"
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby sch_peakoiler » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 20:46:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '
')
Peakoil is Peakenergy.



Ah....uummm.....unlikely....possible...sure....but...uummmm....no.


Should this be considered as an attempt to say something on the topic, as an attempt to make friends with me, or as an attempt to accomplish something else?
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 21:46:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '
')
Peakoil is Peakenergy.



Ah....uummm.....unlikely....possible...sure....but...uummmm....no.


Should this be considered as an attempt to say something on the topic, as an attempt to make friends with me, or as an attempt to accomplish something else?


Lets see.... I choose....no. It was only an artsy fartsy way of saying I disagree with the concept that peak oil is actually peak energy as well.
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 21:53:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', 'I') If we need 20 years to make the conversion, can we do it during 20 years of economic decline of unprecedented rate and magnitude?

You are deprived of your cheap Chinese crap while the plants are being built. Once the plants are built, you may have your cheap chinese crap back.

Why is it impossible for the modern Westerner to grap as simple a concept as: "I work my ass off, no play so that my kids can live better?"


I like the idea of a massive and multi decade long boom in energy infrastructure in EVERYTHING. LNG trains, nukes, coal mines, domestic car companies swapping over to pluggable hybrids, GTL across the globe, wind farms, PV manufacturing in Iowa, ethanol coming out of corn fields while Honda perfects the cellulose end of it. Just gives me CHILLS thinking of all the good things we can employ tons of americans doing instead of sitting around, chaining themselves to tree's and whining about how it isn't fair that walmart doesn't solve the worlds poverty problem all by itself because they happen to have a successful business.

About time we put our capital investment dollars into things which MEAN something.
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 22:01:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', '
')
Part of the doomer crowd perspective derives from the fact that no one is doing anything of significance at this time.


Part of the Doomer perspective is they aren't even NOTICING the beginnings of mitigation happening all around them.

A million BBL/Day in Canada out of TAR?! Drilling in a mile deep water? Ethanol? Hybrids? Increased recovery efficiencys in most any reservoir I've ever heard of? Efficiencys in everything getting better? I used to think R5 was good, I think I got some R20 or R30 stuff I dumped into some void space in the house the other day. If I knew anything about electrical generation, wanna bet THEY are getting better at what they do as well?

I've reviewed at least 2 methods for production from oil shales in the last year, can't wait to see the results at whichever technical conference they show up at first.

The solutions are all around us, haven't been sorted out yet but are going full bore...and Doomers just refuse to NOTICE.
So....heading into our 3rd year post peak and I'm still getting caught in traffic jams!! DieOff already!
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby Dezakin » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 22:11:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '
')
Peakoil is Peakenergy.



Ah....uummm.....unlikely....possible...sure....but...uummmm....no.


Should this be considered as an attempt to say something on the topic, as an attempt to make friends with me, or as an attempt to accomplish something else?


Lets see.... I choose....no. It was only an artsy fartsy way of saying I disagree with the concept that peak oil is actually peak energy as well.

If you check his contributions to the uranium supply thread, you might come to the conclusion he's either being ironic or that he never bothered to change his sig.
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby sch_peakoiler » Thu 12 Oct 2006, 03:59:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '
')
Peakoil is Peakenergy.



Ah....uummm.....unlikely....possible...sure....but...uummmm....no.


Should this be considered as an attempt to say something on the topic, as an attempt to make friends with me, or as an attempt to accomplish something else?


Lets see.... I choose....no. It was only an artsy fartsy way of saying I disagree with the concept that peak oil is actually peak energy as well.


I was able to understand that somehow. premonition?
In fact there is nothing special about people disagreeing with this as there are two contradictory opinions: Peakoil is Peakenergy, and Peakoil is not peakenergy :) And there are people belonging to both of them.

Although I must make some reservations to this, like : peakoil is peakenergy if we fail to develop a large scale hi-tech nuclear solution. But in my signature I kept it short.
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby sch_peakoiler » Thu 12 Oct 2006, 04:05:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '
')
Peakoil is Peakenergy.



Ah....uummm.....unlikely....possible...sure....but...uummmm....no.


Should this be considered as an attempt to say something on the topic, as an attempt to make friends with me, or as an attempt to accomplish something else?


Lets see.... I choose....no. It was only an artsy fartsy way of saying I disagree with the concept that peak oil is actually peak energy as well.

If you check his contributions to the uranium supply thread, you might come to the conclusion he's either being ironic or that he never bothered to change his sig.

Actually I explained this in one post above. Uranium thread already made me learn a lot and change my personal stance. The only thing i disagree with, is that a peakenergy can be avoided without (very) large scale nuclear based solution, which was implied in the study in the first post of this topic. So I will have to take time and change my sig, you are right on this one.
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby sch_peakoiler » Thu 12 Oct 2006, 04:10:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', 'I') like the idea of a massive and multi decade long boom in energy infrastructure in EVERYTHING. LNG trains, nukes, coal mines, domestic car companies swapping over to pluggable hybrids, GTL across the globe, wind farms, PV manufacturing in Iowa, ethanol coming out of corn fields while Honda perfects the cellulose end of it. Just gives me CHILLS thinking of all the good things we can employ tons of americans doing instead of sitting around, chaining themselves to tree's and whining about how it isn't fair that walmart doesn't solve the worlds poverty problem all by itself because they happen to have a successful business.


This is exactly the kind of attitude I want to see as well. And not limited to USA, we will need it all over the globe!
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Re: Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Thu 12 Oct 2006, 04:15:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ure no problem . If somebody is giving the new plug-in hybrid vehicles free of charge everybody is going to get one .


Of course, if we go pure electric, you don't have to include two separate drive systems. This would make the vehicles cost competitive to the conventional ICE vehicles without any subsidies.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat nobody is producing plug-in hybrid vehicles now ?


Nope. And if they did, they wouldn't dare give the ones destined for the U.S. more than 10 miles range or so or the capability to run on electric at highway speeds. Can't have people driving around primarily with one moving power train component that lasts over 500,000 miles... otherwise profits won't get maximized and corporations will do anything to maximize them...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')h i am sure that we can import those plug-in hybrid vehicles from fantasy land .
If we cannot then our tough decider will sure bomb the fantasy land for stealing our vehicles because our way of life is you know what non negotiable.


You mean Japan?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')fter that we will need just a few trillion dollars and a couple of decades to build enough electrical generating capacity because you know plug in hybrids need electricity.


Even with America's dilapidated and strained grid, we'd be able to handle tens of millions of plug-in vehicles today without increasing existing capacity. If everyone were to all drive around in 300 Wh/mile Crown Victoria-sized EVs with no special attention to aerodynamics for a good 12,000 miles a year? We'd need about 25-30% more electricity to be produced. Much less new power would be needed if the norm were more reasonable midsize cars with very good aerodynamics(~150 Wh/mile consumption).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd if you plan to run everything on coal then well just know that burning coal at a rate 20 times faster that before is going to deplete coal 20 times faster....

We'd reduce our supply of coal from 200 years to about 150 years with EVs and PHEVs. Plenty of time to get in place something sustainable, like wind, solar, biomass, and others. However, that would cut deeply into the revenue stream of certain companies, deeply into economic growth...


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut those are small details !!!!! I am sure that INNOVATION will save us !!!!

Me being a doomer, I don't believe it will. Me being an engineer, I do however understand that it COULD. If but for politics and greed...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ooks like a perfectly feasible solution to me. The problem is implementing it! It needs to be supported (e.g. with tax credits) by government, and everyone needs to know that this is the way to go (again government policy).

I say let it stand on its own merits. It doesn't need tax credits so much as it needs someone to actually start producing these vehicles in large quantities(without mass production, price will be high). I say remove all oil subsidies and make the car and oil companies pay for the environmental, personal,and property damage their pollution causes instead of letting Joe Taxpayer subsidize it all. The current market would either have to adapt to fit reality, or die outright and maybe get replaced by something more efficient and responsive to the demands of the consumer.
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