[Graeme]

Technology Can Solve Energy Supply And Security Problems

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')merica's energy future is choice, not fate, and U.S. dependence on oil can be eliminated with proven technologies that create wealth and strengthen security. That's the message Nathan Glasgow of the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) will bring to New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT) in his presentation on Oct. 25, 2006, at NJIT's Technology and Society Forum. Admission is free and the public is invited.
Glasgow, scheduled to speak at 3 p.m. in the NJIT Campus Center, is a consultant advising RMI clients in the energy, commercial and industrial sectors.

[seldom_seen]

Long live the cargo cult!



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') characteristic feature of Cargo Cults is the belief that spiritual agents will at some future time give much valuable cargo and desirable manufactured products to the cult members.

The cult participants generally do not fully understand the significance of manufacturing or commerce.

These cults are a response to confusion and insecurity. They rationalize their situation by the reference to religious and magical symbols.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult

[yesplease]

But how will the wealthy owners of oil, NG, coal, etc... sell a significant portion of their resources if we only use what we need, and not hundreds or thousands of times more than that? Birds will drop from the sky, dead. There will be a global recession, and Nixon will not go to China. Think of the multi-billionaires Graeme, we must think of the multi-billionaires. Their profits are at stake.

[Carlhole]

How is it that some people are so certain that they know how the future will unfold?

No one knows what will happen in the future. It's a mystery and always has been. If you think you know what will happen in the future, keep it to yourself and play the stock market.

We could all get news sometime about a major breakthrough in fusion energy and then everybody wll start singing that they knew all along that technology would save us. People in the 1940s were every bit as stunned by the advent of Nuclear Energy as we would be today if we were delivered news about fusion.

Aside from major breakthroughs, the human creature is extremely adaptable. The world has yet to experience any disabling effects of PO, and yet informed society is aware of the possiblity of impending energy shortages. That awareness alone begins to change how the future unfolds.

It seems to me that a mature mind looks at the possibilities of things and makes an opportunity or a threat assessment. So, in Peak Oil, we have a threat assessment - but the whole thing is so muddled and vague, that the best we can do is to make sure that everyone knows about it.

Nothing is certain - not doomerism, not cornucopia.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'W')e could all get news sometime about a major breakthrough in fusion energy and then everybody wll start singing that they knew all along that technology would save us.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'W')e could all get news sometime about a major breakthrough in fusion energy and then everybody wll start singing that they knew all along that technology would save us.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'W')e could all get news sometime about a major breakthrough in fusion energy and then everybody wll start singing that they knew all along that technology would save us.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'H')ow is it that some people are so certain that they know how the future will unfold?

No one knows what will happen in the future. It's a mystery and always has been. If you think you know what will happen in the future, keep it to yourself and play the stock market.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', ' ')But fission will.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', ' ')But fission will.

[AirlinePilot]

I am pretty much sure of one un-assailable fact after studying this problem for almost two years.

Mankind can not continue down the path of growth and expansion for much longer. Our successes to date as a species are in large part due to the availability of cheap energy (oil). Continued use of fossil fuels WILL result in their total depletion. Long before that the involuntary decline in this use will spell very big trouble for the human race if severe mitigation programs are not put in place very soon. IMHO it's already too late.

The only thing most of us WONT agree on is when all this is going to go down. Thats the part that I see as almost unpredictable.

Of course all bets are off if we figure out in the next year or three how to harness gravity, fusion, or the almost limitless energy of the sun. It all boils down to what you think the most likely scenario is going to unfold. I'd put better odds on the ugly one(historically we have a bad track record), but I still hope and plan for a good outcome.

I'm trying to cover my bets in both situations.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', ' ')Of course all bets are off if we figure out in the next year or three how to harness gravity, fusion, or the almost limitless energy of the sun.

[AirlinePilot]

You have a good point Monte, one I usually agree with you on.

Since we are so close or possible past peak, you believe that If we learned to harness gravity tommorow than it would not matter?
I'm talking about the ability to use gravity to move objects of any size or shape effortlessly. Its obviously not happening anytime soon, but as a thought experiment you think it would not matter at this point?

I agree that it will take time to modify and implement said technology, but I think it would have a rather rapid and very difficult to predict effect on our world. Much more so than say the automobile or the aircraft has had, don't you think?

Of course I know your argument, but I'm interested in your take on this anyway. Please just lets assume that it might happen tommorow (even though we both know it will not).

Humor me!

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'Y')ou have a good point Monte, one I usually agree with you on.

Since we are so close or possible past peak, you believe that If we learned to harness gravity tommorow than it would not matter?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', ' ')I'm talking about the ability to use gravity to move objects of any size or shape effortlessly.

[seldom_seen]

Even if we did discover some silver bullet replacement for oil, it would just send us further out on to a precarious cliffside where "peak something else" would result in a more disastrous overshoot scenario.

If we were to climb down from the cliff rather than fall. The growth for the sake of growth paradigm we live in would have to be scrapped and we would have to shift to a powerdown/populationdown civilization.

It's pretty hard to stop a runaway train though. None of these items would be popular so we've opted to just let nature sort things out for us.

There is no "solution" to to a civilization designed for infinite growth in a finite system. There is only stimulants to prolong the day of reckoning. Kind of like a coke head who decides to "just do a couple more lines" at 6 in the morning to delay the hangover.

[AirlinePilot]

Monte,

I don't have to "carry" an antigrav machine!

I totaly understand the concept of overshoot, but what I'm suggesting is that there could be something to come along which actually might allow a slower decline towards some sort of sustainability. While I agree with Monte on the time issue, I try to have an "open" mind about this particular scenario.

I'm careful to try and not use absolutes with regards to these problems. For the record, I feel as Monte does. We are likely far behind in our efforts to mitigate the coming long emergency. I do hold out a very small sliver of hope in the darker corners of my mind that it could be possible. I think it helps me cope with day to day issues better than without it. At least since I have become PO aware.

I can see how it would be so easy to embrace the technology as savior position, it's almost like a drug.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', ' ')I totaly understand the concept of overshoot, but what I'm suggesting is that there could be something to come along which actually might allow a slower decline towards some sort of sustainability. While I agree with Monte on the time issue, I try to have an "open" mind about this particular scenario.