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When?

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When?

Unread postby SDC » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 16:11:48

I realize that a similar thread has been posted before, but it degenerated into a JD vs Doomers type of discussion, and didn't really answer the question. Thus:

When will the United States economy crash?

To be more specific, when will it become virtually impossible to sell a piece of real estate in the United States?
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Re: When?

Unread postby Dezakin » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 16:28:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SDC', 'I') realize that a similar thread has been posted before, but it degenerated into a JD vs Doomers type of discussion, and didn't really answer the question. Thus:

When will the United States economy crash?

To be more specific, when will it become virtually impossible to sell a piece of real estate in the United States?

Quite some time after the robot revolution turns the bulk of humanity into diesel fuel.

For all practical purposes, not in anyones lifetime that is posting here.
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Re: When?

Unread postby Ayoob » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 16:38:49

I think you might want to reword your question. Somebody will always be ready to buy or sell land somewhere. In exchange for something they value.
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Re: When?

Unread postby SDC » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 16:47:32

Question reworded.

When will it be virtually impossible to sell real estate in the United States for a price that you can buy a piece of real estate large enough to become self-sufficient on?
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Re: When?

Unread postby rwwff » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 16:53:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SDC', 'W')hen will the United States economy crash?

For all practical purposes, not in anyones lifetime that is posting here.


Come on Dez, economies crash all the time. The US one is a bit high on the inertia scale, but we've crashed before, and we'll crash again. During those big-splats, it is pretty hard to get residential middle class real estate sold at a price that makes the seller happy.

The Bond market seems to be betting recession/depression with previous historical results, deflation, low liquidity, etc. Those guys are experts, but they also have an enormous stake that makes them discount the possbility of a period of hyperinflation and excess liquidity. ie, everyone's got cash, but nothing to eat.

I'd think the next recession is just a couple years away at most, housing bubble will drive it, energy prices will cut the legs out from under any easy recovery. It could be this recession that takes the world down the sinkhole, or it might be one a couple decades out.

My bet is we are a couple decades away from the Neverending Recession, and it will be of the hyperinflationary variety. The question then will be, where is the bottom, and how many people get to starve to death while we find it.

SDC, to your reworded question... Its never possible to predict accurately, but rural land prices are rising and residential suburban prices are slipping. At some point, that 3,000 SF house is going to be worth less than what 10 acres of unimproved rural land with no buildings on it costs; and the longer you wait on it, the worse the suburban/rural ratio is going to get.
abundance fleeting
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decay masters all
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Re: When?

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 17:01:49

Before the end of the year. The political scene will act as a catalyst to a process already in the first stages of entropy.
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Re: When?

Unread postby garyp » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 17:30:21

In general crash scenarios depend on shocks to initiate the change. The potential has to be there of course, but it usually takes a disruptive event to shift behaviours and belief.

Therefore if you want to predict the crash, look for potential shocks. They can be political, economic, supply, demand, technological, or plain disasters. Maybe something like a change of control in government, a collapse of a large company, sudden oil supply constriction or a terrorist incident.

With probabilities as they are, you should expect one or more of these to happen within a year in any circumstance. Its then up to how it is received and how public behaviours react.
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Re: When?

Unread postby Dezakin » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 18:01:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SDC', 'W')hen will the United States economy crash?

For all practical purposes, not in anyones lifetime that is posting here.


Come on Dez, economies crash all the time. The US one is a bit high on the inertia scale, but we've crashed before, and we'll crash again. During those big-splats, it is pretty hard to get residential middle class real estate sold at a price that makes the seller happy.

You trimmed my quote. He asked when you cant sell land at all at first, and I said never. There are corrections in the real estate market when bubbles occur, and then some sellers get shafted, sure.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Bond market seems to be betting recession/depression with previous historical results, deflation, low liquidity, etc. Those guys are experts, but they also have an enormous stake that makes them discount the possbility of a period of hyperinflation and excess liquidity. ie, everyone's got cash, but nothing to eat.

How do you interpret the bond market betting on a depression? I think you are projecting a bit here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'d think the next recession is just a couple years away at most, housing bubble will drive it, energy prices will cut the legs out from under any easy recovery. It could be this recession that takes the world down the sinkhole, or it might be one a couple decades out.

Bah, a recession is allways around the corner. Thats what happens in market economies. But I'll bet everything that the economy recovers stronger, and that in 25 years the global economy will be larger and more vibrant than today.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y bet is we are a couple decades away from the Neverending Recession, and it will be of the hyperinflationary variety. The question then will be, where is the bottom, and how many people get to starve to death while we find it.
You'll be saying the exact same thing in another couple of decades if you're dedicated, or you'll be very silent on your musings from several decades past.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')DC, to your reworded question... Its never possible to predict accurately, but rural land prices are rising and residential suburban prices are slipping. At some point, that 3,000 SF house is going to be worth less than what 10 acres of unimproved rural land with no buildings on it costs; and the longer you wait on it, the worse the suburban/rural ratio is going to get.
You'll lose your shirt making bets like that.
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Re: When?

Unread postby clueless » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 18:34:25

I say the US will keep inflating and go to war to squash anyone who has the willingness and abiity to tank US currency/economy.

And besides there is no (complete) escape from Peak Oil, and no such thing as a fully sustainable existence in the United States.
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Re: When?

Unread postby basil_hayden » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 19:15:56

The Plunge Protection Team will not allow you to perceive a crash.

There will be invidual crashes: lives disintegrated, but it won't be to you or yours initially and will go on unnoticed.

Then there will be collective crashes in other countries, like in Africa, India...the developing overpopulated world. But it won't make the news, because the news has become "Entertainment Tonight".

Then there will just be less and less opportunity, which will feel normal with a slow onset. Environmental laws and such will be tossed. Martial law wil be in place, but you'll still have your plasma TV if you can hold a job and pay the utility bill, otherwise you'll be the center of attention for those martial laws.

Then all the bad things happen that we discuss on this board, hopefully followed by all the good things we discuss on this board, once population is better managed with respect to natural laws and available resources.

I just don't see a classic "Crash" coming, because TPTB know how that gets the proletariat all excited, and the last thing powerbrokers need is 300 million pissed off "assets". It's easy to manipulate groups, look at pump prices before the elections...
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Re: When?

Unread postby rwwff » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 19:56:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'Y')ou trimmed my quote. He asked when you cant sell land at all at first, and I said never. There are corrections in the real estate market when bubbles occur, and then some sellers get shafted, sure.


My apologies if you disagreed with the resultant snip.

I thought his intent was clear enough even at first iteration. He'd like to end up with some rural property and would like to maximize both his current urban comfort and the eventual size of his rural spread.

I think he missed the maximal point already. Per acre cost for good, arable land seems to have been rising more rapidly than the cost of suburban homes for a few years now. A good number of the lower end of the upper class have been buying 20 - 200 acre spreads and putting big axe houses on them for a while now. And they don't want unproductive land. Granted, they never make a "profit" per sea on the ag; but the game is fun, the horses are fun, and the quiet is more than fun.

And as wierd as it sounds, riding the tractor makes for some quality thinking time.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow do you interpret the bond market betting on a depression? I think you are projecting a bit here.

All such predictions include a bit of projection. My thoughts are along the lines that the coming medicare/ss/medicaid liability should be seen as a likely source of artificial inflation. So the spread between a 5yr bond and a 30yr bond should be wider than it is right now; but it isn't; which leads me to believe the bond market expects a serious recession /depression period with some deflation in the middle.

Thats my rationale, and I'm sticking with it. Since I don't think we're going to get deflation like we did the last time, I got no long bonds.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ah, a recession is allways around the corner. Thats what happens in market economies. But I'll bet everything that the economy recovers stronger, and that in 25 years the global economy will be larger and more vibrant than today.


Note: I'd love for you to be right. The question is whether or not we come out of a recession quickly, with strength like in the past, or whether energy costs rip the guts out of the exuberance every time it tries to get going.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y bet is we are a couple decades away from the Neverending Recession, and it will be of the hyperinflationary variety. The question then will be, where is the bottom, and how many people get to starve to death while we find it.

You'll be saying the exact same thing in another couple of decades if you're dedicated, or you'll be very silent on your musings from several decades past.

Silent? Not likely, we laugh at ourselves down here when we make c*** predictions like that. If I'm wrong, I'll be laughing myself silly, drinking French wine and eating roast lamb till my arteries go ker-splat. If I'm right I'll be thanking Jesus for the priveledge of having enough land to keep my family fed and the taxes paid. The dawn till dusk work of survival will be less than fun, but it'll beat the alternative.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ').. re rural land vs 3000 sf house
You'll lose your shirt making bets like that.
Depends on the housing market of course.. but assuming that the single family, residential housing market will go up forever seems more than just a little fanciful, especially since wages aren't rising as well as they should within the middle-middle.

They don't tag on: "Past results are no guarantee of future performance.." type lines for nothing you know.
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Re: When?

Unread postby Dezakin » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 20:10:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'M')y thoughts are along the lines that the coming medicare/ss/medicaid liability should be seen as a likely source of artificial inflation. So the spread between a 5yr bond and a 30yr bond should be wider than it is right now; but it isn't; which leads me to believe the bond market expects a serious recession /depression period with some deflation in the middle.

Entitlements are a problem, a bigger one than energy. I dont think they are insurmountable though.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ').. re rural land vs 3000 sf house

You'll lose your shirt making bets like that.

Depends on the housing market of course.. but assuming that the single family, residential housing market will go up forever seems more than just a little fanciful, especially since wages aren't rising as well as they should within the middle-middle.

They don't tag on: "Past results are no guarantee of future performance.." type lines for nothing you know.

My point is if you're betting that 3000 sf urban/suburban house will be worth more than several acres of unimproved land, you'll be wrong. It doesnt mean that rural land isn't a better investment than a bubble-inflated condo, just that urban housing is inherantly more valuable.
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Re: When?

Unread postby rwwff » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 20:23:54

Is the last paragraph the way you meant it?
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Re: When?

Unread postby rwwff » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 21:08:07

OTC drip morphine. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
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Re: When?

Unread postby Dezakin » Tue 03 Oct 2006, 00:09:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'I')s the last paragraph the way you meant it?

I think so.
3000 sf condo at 500k drops to 250k because of a correction vs 10 acres of unimproved rural land at 50k going to 100k because of productive neighbors. Rural land was a better investment, but an urban acre is still worth more than a rural one...

I'm not sure we're really disagreeing, just trying to communicate.
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Re: When?

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 03 Oct 2006, 00:21:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'I')s the last paragraph the way you meant it?
I think so.
3000 sf condo at 500k drops to 250k because of a correction vs 10 acres of unimproved rural land at 50k going to 100k because of productive neighbors. Rural land was a better investment, but an urban acre is still worth more than a rural one...

I'm not sure we're really disagreeing, just trying to communicate.


Thats why I asked. We are in agreement on that.

I was thinking more along the lines of the archtype 40 acres, which is worth about $250k now, from $100k a decade or so ago; and I suspect as more upscale neighbors figure out that a house with a T1 in the country makes a really cool second/retirement home and office, and costs no more than the expensive condo; the price could go up quite a bit further. Especially places that are close enough, but not too close to medium sized cities and interstates. Aging population wanting to get out of the rats but not out of the race may enhance this effect.

Not to mention its amazing where FedEx can get a package in 12 and 18 hours...

This is all PO heresy of course; the idea of coming up with a plan that is both non-PO and PO compatible is apparently not approved of by the various book authors involved...
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Re: When?

Unread postby pacohoney » Tue 03 Oct 2006, 00:29:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'm')ost high-priced rural land has the view but no water.

worthless stupid striving yuppie achievers will scamper back to the city with their tails between their mercedes when TSHTF. trash.


hmmm. sounds like someone has a serious inferiority complex...
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