by rwwff » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 19:56:45
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'Y')ou trimmed my quote. He asked when you cant sell land at all at first, and I said never. There are corrections in the real estate market when bubbles occur, and then some sellers get shafted, sure.
My apologies if you disagreed with the resultant snip.
I thought his intent was clear enough even at first iteration. He'd like to end up with some rural property and would like to maximize both his current urban comfort and the eventual size of his rural spread.
I think he missed the maximal point already. Per acre cost for good, arable land seems to have been rising more rapidly than the cost of suburban homes for a few years now. A good number of the lower end of the upper class have been buying 20 - 200 acre spreads and putting big axe houses on them for a while now. And they don't want unproductive land. Granted, they never make a "profit" per sea on the ag; but the game is fun, the horses are fun, and the quiet is more than fun.
And as wierd as it sounds, riding the tractor makes for some quality thinking time.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow do you interpret the bond market betting on a depression? I think you are projecting a bit here.
All such predictions include a bit of projection. My thoughts are along the lines that the coming medicare/ss/medicaid liability should be seen as a likely source of artificial inflation. So the spread between a 5yr bond and a 30yr bond should be wider than it is right now; but it isn't; which leads me to believe the bond market expects a serious recession /depression period with some deflation in the middle.
Thats my rationale, and I'm sticking with it. Since I don't think we're going to get deflation like we did the last time, I got no long bonds.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ah, a recession is allways around the corner. Thats what happens in market economies. But I'll bet everything that the economy recovers stronger, and that in 25 years the global economy will be larger and more vibrant than today.