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Peak oil and Peak NG in UK?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Peak oil and Peak NG in UK?

Unread postby sch_peakoiler » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 08:56:29

Here we go. Looks like the first country to have had both PO and PG is the UK, aka England.

the data source is bp world energy outlook 2006.

first, oil production data 1994-2005, tbd.

2675 2749 2735 2702 2807 2909 2667 2476 2463 2257 2028 1808

now, gas production, bcm/y

64.6 70.8 84.2 85.9 90.2 99.1 108.4 105.9 103.6 102.9 96.0 88.0


does it look like PO and PG already struck??

Ok, but now comes the scary part.

Oil consumption, tbd, the same timeframe.
1777 1757 1798 1752 1741 1721 1697 1697 1693 1717 1764 1790

pay attention to the last number. If the tendency held, then UK became last year, a petroleum importing country and ceased to be a petroleum exporting country.

Now gas consumption, bcm, the same timeframe

66.1 70.5 82.1 84.5 87.9 92.5 96.9 96.4 95.1 95.3 97.0 94.6

two last numbers say it. Two years ago PeakGas led UK to cease to be a gas exporter and instead to become a gas importer.

Interesting, which consequences this will have on a country with no strong export capacities, no world reserve currency, even no euro?? Of course the consequences are not yet visible. Trade balance goes big minus now, and the debt should grow next time as well.

What do ya think, will England now volunteer even more for different US activities like freeing oil fields from evil muslims?
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Re: Peak oil and Peak NG in UK?

Unread postby Doly » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 09:21:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '
')What do ya think, will England now volunteer even more for different US activities like freeing oil fields from evil muslims?


Why the hell did you think it's been volunteering so far?
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Re: Peak oil and Peak NG in UK?

Unread postby Gridlock » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 09:42:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ooks like the first country to have had both PO and PG is the UK, aka England


Does that mean that every other country in the world hasn’t peaked in more than one of oil or gas? I thought we were one of the few remaining industrialised countries to still be a net exporter of energy up till late.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat do ya think, will England now volunteer even more for different US activities like freeing oil fields from evil muslims?


Well if we’re going to fight over it the logical place to invade would be Russia. The conventional army is already over-stretched so won’t be taking part in this mission. I guess we could merge the TA and cub-scouts into a lethal fighting force, but I can’t see them being particularly effective. Guess we’re doomed then.
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Re: Peak oil and Peak NG in UK?

Unread postby sch_peakoiler » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 10:22:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gridlock', '&')lt;Quote>Looks like the first country to have had both PO and PG is the UK, aka England</Quote>

Does that mean that every other country in the world hasn’t peaked in more than one of oil or gas? I thought we were one of the few remaining industrialised countries to still be a net exporter of energy up till late.



Actually there are about 5 countries with substantial production which have peaked. In Oil : Us, Norway, Australia, Indonesia, UK, Oman.

In gas : UK, Italy.

so UK is the only one to have peaked in both. I did not check on countries with miniscule production though.

Anyway, another dangerous case is indonesia. It also became an importer in 2005, and it was a powerful exporter before.
As to Norway, its still producing 2800 tbd, decline being 200 tbd/y, and internal consumption about 300 tbd, so it is still a very important exporter, despite Peak.
Australia was never an important exporter I guess, that is why It is not so important. Decline in this country is about 50 tbd If I remember correctly.

Oman peaked but is still an exporter.

US is another case. No use to discuss, even that US has not peaked on gas yet:)

By the way, I recommend all of you who have not done it yet, download the BP report and look how PeakGas looks like. It is really scary. You find it under Gas production UK and Italy. its like falling down, 8-9% per year. really steep.
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Re: Peak oil and Peak NG in UK?

Unread postby Gridlock » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 10:46:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ':') I did not check on countries with miniscule production though


And we’re not considering countries that have never produced oil or gas (or both).

But I do agree, the NG situation doesn’t look good at Winter times, and a bit worrying was a DTI white-paper assumed we’ll just keep importing it as the North Sea goes into decline and skirted round nuclear. Looks to me like its a formality and they’ll be built anyway now.
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Re: Peak oil and Peak NG in UK?

Unread postby oddone » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 10:59:26

Norways peak is somewhat political. Large areas are not opened for exploration by request from the socialists in the coalition government. Despite huge pressure from oil companies and their puppet masters the rate of exploring seems to be designed to keep the industry and production stable for as long as possible.
I guess the same might be true for some other oil producing contries on the "peaked" list.

Btw., the 1200km gas pipeline "Langeled" from Norway to UK opened 1. October, and will account for ca. 20% of gas consumption in UK.
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Re: Peak oil and Peak NG in UK?

Unread postby TorrKing » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 11:37:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oddone', 'N')orways peak is somewhat political. Large areas are not opened for exploration by request from the socialists in the coalition government. Despite huge pressure from oil companies and their puppet masters the rate of exploring seems to be designed to keep the industry and production stable for as long as possible.
I guess the same might be true for some other oil producing contries on the "peaked" list.

Btw., the 1200km gas pipeline "Langeled" from Norway to UK opened 1. October, and will account for ca. 20% of gas consumption in UK.


From what I have read on http://oljekrisa.no/ the chances of finding a lot of oil in those unexplored areas are vastly excaggerated.
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Re: Peak oil and Peak NG in UK?

Unread postby coyote » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 12:18:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', 'U')S is another case. No use to discuss, even that US has not peaked on gas yet:)

I'm admittedly pretty clueless about this stuff; but it sure looks to me like US production numbers are down for natural gas:

table_of_natural_gas_production_2006.pdf

Someone like me might look at that table and come to the conclusion that the US reached PG in 2001. We produced less natural gas in 2005 than in 1995.

Or is it that we need to look for a really precipitous decline, as in the UK, to be certain?
Lord, here comes the flood
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It'll be those who gave their island to survive...
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Re: Peak oil and Peak NG in UK?

Unread postby sch_peakoiler » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 12:48:20

I think yes. That is, one should look for a decline like in UK or Italy. By the way, both those countries show the same percentage of decline, allthough very different absolute numbers. UK around 90 bcm and Italy around 13 bcm.
Gas production is rather fluctuating in its nature. What we see in US might be a plateau of the peak though. But here again, examples of UK and Italy show that Gas has no plateau. So I would even say US even has some spare capacity in gas production, it is not at peak yet.
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Re: Peak oil and Peak NG in UK?

Unread postby cube » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 15:28:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gridlock', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat do ya think, will England now volunteer even more for different US activities like freeing oil fields from evil muslims?


Well if we’re going to fight over it the logical place to invade would be Russia.
I don't know if that's a good idea. Remember what happened to the last person who tried that? :P

I suppose this is the part where the UK warms up to the idea of nuclear power. However I've heard some pretty horrific financial disasters concerning British nuclear power projects...maybe they should just outsource the job to the French and string super conducting electric cables across the channel?

or they could *gasp* "conserve" energy. 8O 8O 8O
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Re: Peak oil and Peak NG in UK?

Unread postby Gridlock » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 17:57:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') suppose this is the part where the UK warms up to the idea of nuclear power.


Seems to be, the last Yougov poll I saw showed 40% in support 37% against. I think the PM said it would be back with ‘a vengeance’.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'm')aybe they should just outsource the job to the French and string super conducting electric cables across the channel?


Could be a wise choice :-) I think they already supply us with some juice. The French have got the know-how on Nuclear, Danes and Germans on Wind, hopefully we’ll be able to contribute something from wave over the coming years.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'o')r they could *gasp* "conserve" energy.


Absolutely, you can guess how I view our current passion for the car. But I don’t think we’re ready to return to some craft society just yet, so we’ll need something to maintain industrial processes. Nuclear seems to fit the bill.
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Re: Peak oil and Peak NG in UK?

Unread postby Eddie_lomax » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 19:31:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oddone', 'N')orways peak is somewhat political. Large areas are not opened for exploration by request from the socialists in the coalition government. Despite huge pressure from oil companies and their puppet masters the rate of exploring seems to be designed to keep the industry and production stable for as long as possible.
I guess the same might be true for some other oil producing contries on the "peaked" list.

Btw., the 1200km gas pipeline "Langeled" from Norway to UK opened 1. October, and will account for ca. 20% of gas consumption in UK.


From what I have read about Norway (mainly from Campbell, but also other reports) is that the sweet spots were opened up for exploration slowly years ago, these good prospects ran out a while ago hence their production declines. Whats left are a few nature conserves and large areas of the barents sea which has so far proved gas prone.

Technically there are still areas of the UK north sea there for exploration too, but they're not much worse prospects and yeild just a few small fields with a rare surprise like the buzzard.

As for their goverment, the best thing they did was slow the exploration stage, there were no attempts to slow the actual production, as for their goverment, apart from the huge north sea fund their slogan could be - have money will spend :P

By the way, does anyone know what their current reserves to production ratio is ? I know with the troll field and exports to UK alone it used to be around 50 years, since then I've heard figures lower like 35.
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