PeakOil is You
Pandemic: Relax, Peak Oil fix is on the way
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Pandemic: Relax, Peak Oil fix is on the way
by Mishka » Fri 26 Nov 2004, 19:36:18
The WHO is certain we are about to have a pandemic. If we get a worst case scenario and a 30% population die-off then resource demand drops and PO gets delayed a couple a decades. But this is only good news if you, your family and friends are in the other 70%
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Mishka - Peat
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How true....
by BorneoRagnarok » Fri 26 Nov 2004, 21:29:34
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('http://edition.cnn.com/2004/HEALTH/11/25/birdflu.warning/index.html', '
')The worst was the Spanish flu in 1918-19, when as many as 50 million people worldwide are thought to have died, nearly half of them young, healthy adults.
')The worst was the Spanish flu in 1918-19, when as many as 50 million people worldwide are thought to have died, nearly half of them young, healthy adults.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')"There is no reason to believe that we are going to be spared."
Stohr said if bird flu triggers the next pandemic, the virus would likely originate in Asia.
Currently I am down with minor influenza . I think I get it from my friends who cough, hack and wheeze. Here in East Malaysia, it is monsoon season. The number of mosquitos also increased tremendously.
When the peak oil come , I cannot imagined the consequences of an influenza breakout, it must be fatal as there are lack of medicine and nutritious food to go around. Feel dizzy now... Need to sleep.
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BorneoRagnarok - Lignite
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by pea-jay » Fri 26 Nov 2004, 21:46:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Even with the best case scenario, the most optimistic scenario, the pandemic will cause a public health emergency with estimates which will put the number of deaths in the range of two and seven million," he said.
"The number of people affected will go beyond billions because between 25 percent and 30 percent will fall ill."
"The number of people affected will go beyond billions because between 25 percent and 30 percent will fall ill."
As bad as that sounds, it will hardly make an impact on global aggregate demand. The worst it could do is impact a season's worth of air travel, similar to what SARS did in 2002.
UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
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pea-jay - Heavy Crude
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by gg3 » Sat 27 Nov 2004, 04:55:30
Don't go counting your (flu-stricken) chickens before they hatch.
Estimates forecast that in a bird flu pandemic, 25 - 30% of the world population will be *sickened* i.e. catch the flu and get over it, and 2 - 7 million will die from it.
2 - 7 million deaths does not reduce overall human population to the sustainable 2 billion level.
Also, the 25 - 30 % who get sick, will do so over a year or two. So this is more likely to lead to a generalized economic recession than anything else. That in turn may get us a decrease in resource demand, but again, not enough to get back to a sustainable leve.
There is no way around the fact that we still need a massive birth control effort. And as a moral issue, we have to take responsibility for our own behavior (i.e. not go on breeding like mice), rather than waiting for God and/or Nature to do it for us.
Estimates forecast that in a bird flu pandemic, 25 - 30% of the world population will be *sickened* i.e. catch the flu and get over it, and 2 - 7 million will die from it.
2 - 7 million deaths does not reduce overall human population to the sustainable 2 billion level.
Also, the 25 - 30 % who get sick, will do so over a year or two. So this is more likely to lead to a generalized economic recession than anything else. That in turn may get us a decrease in resource demand, but again, not enough to get back to a sustainable leve.
There is no way around the fact that we still need a massive birth control effort. And as a moral issue, we have to take responsibility for our own behavior (i.e. not go on breeding like mice), rather than waiting for God and/or Nature to do it for us.
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Re: Relax, Peak Oil fix is on the way
by BabyPeanut » Sun 28 Nov 2004, 10:31:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mishka', 'T')he WHO is certain we are about to have a pandemic. If we get a worst case scenario and a 30% population die-off then resource demand drops and PO gets delayed a couple a decades. [url=http://edition.cnn.com/2004/HEALTH/11/25/birdflu.warning/index.htm]
But this is only good news if you, your family and friends are in the other 70%[/url]
Want to really get paranoid? Notice how the price of gasoline is kept down by increasing the price of heating oil instead. You get both from the same barrel of crude oil since they are different fractions. If you input one barrel of crude into a refinery and output serveral different substances you can fiddle with their prices to get what you want so you can push the poor out into the cold to make them sick. Then you screw up the supply of flu vaccine to kick them while they are down.But this is only good news if you, your family and friends are in the other 70%[/url]
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