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Article: "OPEC: Lemonade Cartel"

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Article: "OPEC: Lemonade Cartel"

Unread postby lateStarter » Tue 26 Sep 2006, 16:30:43

This guy obviously doesn't have a clue.... read the posted comments to his article:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]OPEC: Lemonade Cartel 26 Sep 2006:
Oil was up today as word is that OPEC may do something about the production overrun. As I mentioned in an earlier post, this sounds very nice, but, much like a kid with a lemonade stand and no customers, the markers come out and prices keep dropping until they finally have to pour it all down the drain.
“Come on Phil!” you may say, “Surely the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is more sophisticated than a couple of children selling lemonade at the side of the road.”
Sadly no. They are not. In fact, it could be argued that they are in a poorer business position than your average 8 year-old because:
A) The 8 year-old doesn’t keep making lemonade even when no one is buying.
B) The 8 year-old knows how to price to the market. When business is slow, they immediately drop prices to keep the consumers in the game.
C) The 8 year old isn’t funding a $60b dollar economy almost entirely on petro dollars! …
Smug and Dumb....
We have been brought into the present condition in which we are unable neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them. - Livy
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Re: Let the bashing begin...

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Tue 26 Sep 2006, 17:23:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'T')his guy obviously doesn't have a clue.... read the posted comments to his article.

Smug and Dumb....


Well to be honest, I read this after a few beers and it seemed pretty thought out until this little nugget cropped up somewhere close to the bottom of the piece.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phil Davis', 'O')nce oil gets down to $50 a barrel or less and Iran is out over $14b a year in revenues, cutbacks will be the furthest thing from their minds!


Just remind me what decade we are living in. I assume at this point while writing his submission, Phil took a big long snort of his white line, sniffed in heavily and EVERYTHING became that much clearer.
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Re: Let the bashing begin...

Unread postby mekrob » Tue 26 Sep 2006, 17:37:46

Dumbass writes:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ig count is up 20% in the continental U.S. and, if that leads to a 20% increase in domestic production, that’s another 1mbd that we won’t be buying from OPEC.


Tear this guy a new one, Energy Digger and Rockdoc. My head is about to explode from this.
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Re: Let the bashing begin...

Unread postby lateStarter » Tue 26 Sep 2006, 17:45:28

This was one of my favorites:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')et’s not forget that there are production costs there as well. If we assume production accounts for $20 of every barrel, then we are talking about a much steeper decline in net revenues…


From what I recall, production costs for getting a barrel of oil out of the ground in the mid-east was less than $2.00/barrel. Assume all you want a'hole....
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Re: Let the bashing begin...

Unread postby NEOPO » Tue 26 Sep 2006, 17:53:16

K ;-)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'm')uch like a kid with a lemonade stand and no customers,

Yes no customers for the extra oil which is Heavy sour to medium grade at best.
Or maybe I should call it unsweetened lemonade!! ;-)
Real freakin frank-Einstein we have here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') production cutback can work if demand is inelastic (it isn’t), but what happens when supply is inelastic? It isn’t the U.S. that’s addicted to oil, it’s OPEC that is addicted to cash, and we have them Jonesing big-time for a steady fix.


Ahhh its opec that is addicted to cash - LMAO
They must be extremely high right about now ;-)

lenny did a good job here:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es your math is questionable! Look like you are mixing coffee with lemon. Iran produced approximately 3.75 - 4MM/bbl. Iraq produced approximately 2MM/bbl. OPEC's revenue is based on its own price basket not current WTI Prices or an average?. OPEC (including Iraq) is currently producing approximately 29.890MM/bbl as of the latest data. That is approximately 1.3% lower than what was produced two years ago - 30.280MM/bbl. The proposed quota is approximately 28.000MM/bbl and a production cut is neutral to the market.

And is not just another lemonade stand as oil from the Middle East cost less to refine versus from other region. Also, keep in mind that oil is a by-product and frankly, has nothing to do with how much SUV's we purchased!

FYI Iran is expected to earn approximately $49.2 Bil. this year and only a slight increase from 2005 of $46.6 Bil.

The issue is not OPEC is simply traders making the wrong bet.


another bright spot was the thought that if $3 gallon will get america out of its SUV's will $2 gas get america right back into them?

oh man - look at this
Phil's World - Sector Watch - Mid September Oil

and more specifically this

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow much is made of the IEAs assumption that we will hit peak oil production sometime around 2035 but the same prediction was famously made in 1956 about 1970 (one of the root causes of the 1970s speculation bubble and oil crisis).


bwahahah I cant take anymore!!!! lmfao ;-)

NO WAIT!!!
Russian Researchers Say Rains Boost Oil Reserves

FROM
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')orget the fact that there are 2Tb of oil locked up in US shale and another 1.5T in Canadian oil sands but what if oil doesn’t even come from dinosaurs, as we have been taught, but from a renewable geological process?

I can only stand so much dun dun duh at one sitting......
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Re: Let the bashing begin...

Unread postby Free » Tue 26 Sep 2006, 17:54:27

I like him - he takes the lemons and makes lemonade. That's the spirit!

It would be appropriate to let him drink some cans of oil... "How does it taste, your lemonade, hah? HAH?"
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Re: Let the bashing begin...

Unread postby mekrob » Tue 26 Sep 2006, 18:04:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ased on his theory, Gold persuaded the Swedish State Power Board to drill for oil in a rock that had been fractured by an ancient meteorite. It was a good test of his theory because the rock was not sedimentary and would not contain remains of plant or marine life. The drilling was successful, although not enough oil was found to make the field commercially viable.


Wasn't it like 80 barrels? HAHAHAHHA
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Re: Let the bashing begin...

Unread postby cube » Tue 26 Sep 2006, 21:24:25

ohh man this is sad. It would be easier to list all the statements he said that were true rather then false. answer == 1

I assume he must of at least got his name right. :wink: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')very barrel that goes unsold is an opportunity cost.
FALSE
The oil biz is NOT the hotel biz. A hotel room that goes unsold for the day is an opportunity lost. Every barrel that sits in the ground can always be sold at a later date......and probably for a higher cost, much like a fine wine that matures with age.....unlike lemonade. :-D
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Re: Let the bashing begin...

Unread postby small_steps » Tue 26 Sep 2006, 21:31:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')very barrel that goes unsold is an opportunity cost.


Every barrel that is unsold today is an asset of tomorrow.
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