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New signs of cooling US economy

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New signs of cooling US economy

Unread postby KevO » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 13:33:01

US producer prices rose by just 0.1% last month as the amount spent by businesses on energy moderated after recent sharp price rises.
Wholesale energy prices rose just 0.3% in August, following July's 1.3% jump, while gasoline prices fell 2.2%. Separate data published on Tuesday showed a 6% fall in house construction.
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Re: New signs of cooling US economy

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 14:36:47

i own a small construction company, and i will testify that things are really slowing down.
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Re: New signs of cooling US economy

Unread postby NordicHero » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 14:50:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('armegeddon', 'i') own a small construction company, and i will testify that things are really slowing down.


I don't know what your business model is, but consider this idea I've been daydreaming about (a daydream only because I don't have the funds):

Buy say 40 acres of productive land. Subdivide into 10 parcels and build small, efficient cottages using free and cheap, recycled materials. Outfit each home to be self-sufficient for water and energy using solar, wind, and rainwater collection. Also, dig ponds, plant orchards, bike paths, etc.

Basically, develop a small permaculture village; and then sell each home for a handsome profit. I think the demand exists for this type of neighborhood, and we all believe that future circumstances will compel us to live that way.
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Re: New signs of cooling US economy

Unread postby dukey » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 15:40:44

without fertlisers and pestices
we are going to need a LOT more land to produce the same amount of food as we currently do

fertilisers and pesticides let us have awesome crop yields ..
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Re: New signs of cooling US economy

Unread postby Lore » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 20:35:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NordicHero', '
')Buy say 40 acres of productive land. Subdivide into 10 parcels and build small, efficient cottages using free and cheap, recycled materials. Outfit each home to be self-sufficient for water and energy using solar, wind, and rainwater collection. Also, dig ponds, plant orchards, bike paths, etc.

Basically, develop a small permaculture village; and then sell each home for a handsome profit. I think the demand exists for this type of neighborhood, and we all believe that future circumstances will compel us to live that way.


Already been thought of and attempted by Walt, a place called EPCOT LINK, or how about Paolo Solari's ARCOSONTI. LINK

Hadn't worked out so well for these visionaries either.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: New signs of cooling US economy

Unread postby NordicHero » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 21:11:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '
')Not sure whether you've priced any of these out. If you want to be self-sufficient for electric your choices are - use 1/10 of a normal household's usage, spend 100k on a photovoltaic/battery/wind system, or become Amish.

Instead of rainwater collection, if feasable, I'd recommend a hand pump. Worked well enough for many years before "town water."


I realize that solar panels are expensive. Off the top of my head, I would suggest that each house have around 2.5KW, or $10k worth of PV. Plus a 1KW wind turbine, another $1,500. Add energy storage and grid tie-in. Less than $15,000 total, and this money could be recouped during the sale.

With grid tie-in, they could consume a "normal" amount of electricity. If they chose to not use grid electricity, each home would generate enough electricity of their own to power a few appliances at a time. I would equip each house with an energy-efficient fridge, washer (dry on clothesline), A/C (heat with wood; I'd use strawbale construction to maximize insulation in my hot, muggy climate), lights, etc.

As for hand pumps and deep wells, I would do that too.

If one was frugal, like buying solar panels on e-bay, it would be possible to do all of this for less than the cost of a traditional house's construction. And I think these houses could sell for big money -- if done well and in the right location.

Lore, I can't speak to Disney or others' efforts, but perhaps it was an issue of timing.
Last edited by NordicHero on Tue 19 Sep 2006, 22:05:03, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New signs of cooling US economy

Unread postby RdSnt » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 21:20:05

I had a friend who's father was quite a conscientious owner of the housing construction company. He truly wanted to build affordable housing for lower income people.
He was a very successful developer and with his own money developed a subdivision, built good quality practical houses, and put a fair price on them.
He couldn't sell them. People thought there must be something wrong with brand new houses that were substantially lower than the market. Many didn't want to be associated with "welfare" houses.

In disgust the building gave up, polished the houses up with lipstick, boosted the prices to be upscale prices and had no trouble selling them. He made a killing.

People want castles (even when they can't afford them). We've become innured to living way beyond our means.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NordicHero', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('armegeddon', 'i') own a small construction company, and i will testify that things are really slowing down.


I don't know what your business model is, but consider this idea I've been daydreaming about (a daydream only because I don't have the funds):

Buy say 40 acres of productive land. Subdivide into 10 parcels and build small, efficient cottages using free and cheap, recycled materials. Outfit each home to be self-sufficient for water and energy using solar, wind, and rainwater collection. Also, dig ponds, plant orchards, bike paths, etc.

Basically, develop a small permaculture village; and then sell each home for a handsome profit. I think the demand exists for this type of neighborhood, and we all believe that future circumstances will compel us to live that way.
Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
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Re: New signs of cooling US economy

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 22:02:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NordicHero', 'B')uy say 40 acres of productive land. Subdivide into 10 parcels and build small, efficient cottages using free and cheap, recycled materials. Outfit each home to be self-sufficient for water and energy using solar, wind, and rainwater collection. Also, dig ponds, plant orchards, bike paths, etc.


I don't think people are anywhere near ready to buy such houses. If you had forty acres that you were thinking of developing like this in the future, planting a bunch of 5ft fruit trees and digging the ponds would be the right thing to do now. Trees take a long time to grow, ponds take a while to fill, settle, and come into a state of equilibrium. Wind and especially solar could be much cheaper in a few years.

McMansions are certainly slowing, but they are still selling; and simple 1500 sqft houses like mine are not in particularly high demand.
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Re: New signs of cooling US economy

Unread postby NordicHero » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 22:11:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'I') don't think people are anywhere near ready to buy such houses. If you had forty acres that you were thinking of developing like this in the future, planting a bunch of 5ft fruit trees and digging the ponds would be the right thing to do now. Trees take a long time to grow, ponds take a while to fill, settle, and come into a state of equilibrium. Wind and especially solar could be much cheaper in a few years.

McMansions are certainly slowing, but they are still selling; and simple 1500 sqft houses like mine are not in particularly high demand.


Even if it's only a tiny fraction of the population interested in such a house, if it's near a city with 1 million people, there will be at least a few hundred parties interested in buying. And one would only need to sell 10. Then the developer walk aways with their profits; or, do it again and make even more money because of the previous experience.

Also, if it's a reasonable assumption that demand for this type of subdivision will grow in the not so distant future, why not be one of the first in the game?
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Re: New signs of cooling US economy

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 22:18:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NordicHero', 'E')ven if it's only a tiny fraction of the population interested in such a house, if it's near a city with 1 million people, there will be at least a few hundred parties interested in buying. And one would only need to sell 10. Then the developer walk aways with their profits; or, do it again and make even more money because of the previous experience.

Also, if it's a reasonable assumption that demand for this type of subdivision will grow in the not so distant future, why not be one of the first in the game?


40 acre * 25,000 / acre = 1,000,000
base house, 1200sf = 120,000 / hs
elec gen house = 15,000 / hs

Basically, you're asking people to buy a small house for $250,000 ?
Would a bank even approve such a loan? Would it appraise well enough to even qualify at 20% down?

As to why not be first, the first one in usually freezes to death.
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Re: New signs of cooling US economy

Unread postby NordicHero » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 22:56:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '4')0 acre * 25,000 / acre = 1,000,000
base house, 1200sf = 120,000 / hs
elec gen house = 15,000 / hs

Basically, you're asking people to buy a small house for $250,000 ?
Would a bank even approve such a loan? Would it appraise well enough to even qualify at 20% down?

As to why not be first, the first one in usually freezes to death.


Well not so close to the city that land would cost $25k per acre. I check real estate listings often, and frequently see large tracts of land for $3k - $6k per acre. Plus, I'm thinking more like 800 sqft. homes, suitable for couples with 1 child. And I think it could be built for less than $100 per square foot, especially if you can source a lot of second-hand materials.

My guess is in the neighborhood of $60k per house including land. Then sell each for $100k.

If those numbers panned out:

Total investment: $600k
Profit from investment: +$400k
Good deeds: +10

Of course it could be done in stages so that it wouldn't cost $600k out of pocket, but more like $250k, and then from the return of selling the first home, successive houses could be built.
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Re: New signs of cooling US economy

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 23:04:46

I'm sorry to be a pain.. but most small projects done in stages, never get past stage one. To sell it as an ecologically friendly and sustainable community, you need to get all those houses down, and deed restrictions in place to keep it that way.

Secondly, the type of people that are going to buy in, would be sorta-hippy, but they're going to want fairly high end, quality fixtures and such; stuff that doesn't have to be replaced every ten years. Small kitchen, but solid cabinetry, good long term pantry storage, granite countertops; etc. Otherwise, when they see it, they'll think, "how nice, people can live sustainably..." all the time thinking about their gardener or maid service personell living there. Maybe that offends an ethical principle, I dunno; but if you want ten families to buy these houses, you've got to follow the market.

Otherwise, you're competing with the guy who'll just buy 10 acres himself, and park a small mobile home on it, and call it done.
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Re: New signs of cooling US economy

Unread postby NordicHero » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 23:19:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'I')'m sorry to be a pain.. but most small projects done in stages, never get past stage one. To sell it as an ecologically friendly and sustainable community, you need to get all those houses down, and deed restrictions in place to keep it that way.

Secondly, the type of people that are going to buy in, would be sorta-hippy, but they're going to want fairly high end, quality fixtures and such; stuff that doesn't have to be replaced every ten years. Small kitchen, but solid cabinetry, good long term pantry storage, granite countertops; etc. Otherwise, when they see it, they'll think, "how nice, people can live sustainably..." all the time thinking about their gardener or maid service personell living there. Maybe that offends an ethical principle, I dunno; but if you want ten families to buy these houses, you've got to follow the market.

Otherwise, you're competing with the guy who'll just buy 10 acres himself, and park a small mobile home on it, and call it done.


I understand what you're saying. But whatever demographic it would ultimately appeal to, I think there are enough people with enough money who want a house like I've described, and who want it all to be put in place for them, so they can just move right in.
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Unread postby Doly » Wed 20 Sep 2006, 05:59:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'L')ook Nordic Hero, it's a noble idea and I support your enthusiasm and your right to do it. I think it sounds glorious.

So does flying by flapping my arms, but I don't seet that working out either.


I don't know how pricing works out in America, but I know that in Europe some people are generating their own electricity and even selling it to the grid, and the financial side of things works out. There are a lot of windmills in Germany, for example.

And in the Canary Islands, 20 years ago, for many houses in remote places it was worth to generate their own electricity with wind/solar rather than pay the price of connecting to the grid.
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