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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE John Bolton Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Bush's new Chief of Staff gets it

Unread postby whereagles » Tue 02 May 2006, 07:29:48

We have been going in the wrong direction eversince day 1 of oil extraction. From the day we stared, we knew it was going to end :)

But consider what would have happened without oil: you would not have had the enormous evolution of the 20th century. Or at least you would have had much less of it. Oil has probably bought us a couple of centuries of advancement. It would have been backwards not to use it.

It is very human to use something that is very convenient. In fact it is almost mathematical that mankind will use/squander every resource it has available.

Is the use of oil irrational? Maybe. Logical? Definitely.
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Re: Bush's new Chief of Staff gets it

Unread postby SoothSayer » Tue 02 May 2006, 08:02:39

>> When the American economy really starts to go south, many will be suprised at just how prepared they were IMO!

The never ending stream of anti-terror laws in the UK could easily be used to control the population in the event of energy problems.

I even saw my first UK govt TV advert a few days ago which is "pushing" conservation to prevent eco disaster.

Yep, we'll be hit by the "guilt trip" .... "fuel cutbacks to fight terror" or "fuel cutbacks to save the planet".

Dissent will be regarded as anti-social.

1984 here we come.
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Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby UncoveringTruths » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 16:32:41

He stated this while trying to debunk the Nuclear for peaceful purposes claim from Iran.

Source: CNN Situation Room Wolf Blitzer
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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby NEOPO » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 16:45:04

Thats because the Neocon plan involves a return to Iran in 2350 A.D. after the worst of the radiation has cleared to retrieve their oil ;-)
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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 16:57:15

400 years' worth of oil? Not if they intend on propping their economy up, there's not...

On a related note, how's the Iranian corn harvest going to be this year?

:roll:

I guess what's good for the Shah is not good for the...well, you know. :oops:
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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby rogerhb » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 17:10:00

Maybe if they do to the Iranian oil industry what they did to Iraq's.

Did he explain why the US was keen for the Shah to go nuclear?
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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby nero » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 17:11:04

This is stupidity at several levels.

1. Oil is not a direct replacement for nuclear, as oil is too valuable to use to produce electircity.

2. He must have his own optimistic estimate of Iranian reserves as the Iranian R/P ratio is 92.

3. Iran oil consumption is growing. In a couple of generations they will have a 100 million people all expecting to lead the good life as promised by their government.

4. Reserves don't count, production is all that matters.

5. Iran has had a hard time maintaining their oil production levels, putting into question their own reserve numbers let alone Bolton's extra 200 billion barrels of oil.

6. The US was a major oil exporter when it developed its own nuclear energy industry. So was the Soviet Union for that matter.

7. They had no problem selling nuclear technology to the Shah back in the 70s.

8. Nuclear technology is all about national pride. It's Iran's 'Man on the Moon" project, so need has got nothing to do with it.
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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 17:17:17

Nero, that makes too much sense. :)

Bolton would rather posit that Iran is seeking nukes so that it can start WW3, and, in a sense, shit in its own backyard. That keeps us (well, those in bed with certain ME interests) s c a r e d ... This is the only possible scenario for an American takeover of the ME. So, it must be the only one that's true*.

*not really
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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby Aaron » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 17:34:10

Predicting oil futures & plays the sax... what a guy.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 17:53:23

Back in the mid-70's, the Carter Whitehouse declared |(paraphrasing) that Iran would be a good customer for US nuclear technology because its oil reserves were expected to peak and begin to decline in about fifteen years - that would have put Iran's peak at about 1990 or so.

I remember reading this somewhere.
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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 18:58:06

Where is he pulling these numbers from, his moustache?
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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby NEOPO » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 19:03:09

his moust-ass!!! ;-)
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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby PrairieMule » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 19:36:29

Hold on a minute! If you destroy 99.9% of the Earth's population in a nuclear exchange and consumption is reduced to less than 1 million barrels a day for 20 million humans left, I guess he could be right. In that scenario we would have sufficient reserves for mankind.
:roll:
Just goes to show most problems can be solved with Modest Proposals. Hoo-ray for fuzzy math!
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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby ohanian » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 21:05:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', 'H')old on a minute! If you destroy 99.9% of the Earth's population in a nuclear exchange and consumption is reduced to less than 1 million barrels a day for 20 million humans left, I guess he could be right. In that scenario we would have sufficient reserves for mankind.

Just goes to show most problems can be solved with Modest Proposals. Hoo-ray for fuzzy math!


Not true.

300-400 years of oil is patently FALSE.

Assume, magically the global population is reduced from 6.5 billion to 20 million.

Assume that population growth after the GREAT DYING is 1.04 (4% annual growth)

log(6.5e9/20e6) / log(1.04) = 147.4

So after 148 years after the GREAT DYING, the world population would be back to 6.5 billion. And we know that oil would only last 100 years at population of 6.5 billion


So the total time for oil is 148 years + 100 years = 248 years

Which is 52 years short of 300-400 years.
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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 21:31:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'B')ack in the mid-70's, the Carter Whitehouse declared |(paraphrasing) that Iran would be a good customer for US nuclear technology because its oil reserves were expected to peak and begin to decline in about fifteen years - that would have put Iran's peak at about 1990 or so.

I remember reading this somewhere.


I won't be able to find the story now, but I previously posted here a story from Iranian news in 2003 that they were embarking on a nuclear porgram due to the eventual depletion of oil reserves. I think they implied that peak production was not far away at that time.

Iran clearly understands PO as far as their country goes. The fact that Iran doesn't mention this frequently is not surprising. How often do important US officials mention that US oil production peaked years ago and most likely will continually get lower over time? No public welcomes bad news, including Iran's. Otherwise Iran would have reduced its very generous gasoline subsidies long ago.
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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby ClassicSpiderman » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 21:31:58

If Iran develops nuclear reactors they will be able to reduce their internal demand for oil and sell more of it on the world market, thus lowering the price and easing the pain for American consumers.

Ahmadinejad should try to say that in his next charm offensive.
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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby Concerned » Wed 20 Sep 2006, 05:45:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClassicSpiderman', 'I')f Iran develops nuclear reactors they will be able to reduce their internal demand for oil and sell more of it on the world market, thus lowering the price and easing the pain for American consumers.

Ahmadinejad should try to say that in his next charm offensive.


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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby seahorse » Wed 20 Sep 2006, 09:13:16

The current administrations arguments against Iran having a nuclear program are contradictory to the US helping the Shah begin a nuclear program in the 70s. The Iranians point that contradiction out, but its rarely covered in US MSM.



Iran Wikipedia
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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby Specop_007 » Wed 20 Sep 2006, 13:46:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'T')he current administrations arguments against Iran having a nuclear program are contradictory to the US helping the Shah begin a nuclear program in the 70s. The Iranians point that contradiction out, but its rarely covered in US MSM.



Iran Wikipedia


Should it be?
100 years ago, we hung blacks. I dont hear many people wanting to hang blacks.
60 years ago Germans gassed Jews. I dont hear maany people argueing to shove Jews into gas chambers.

Times change. History is just that, history. Russia and USA used to be partners in the war against Japan and Germany.
Now Japan is one of our closest Allies.

Times change, so do policies.
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Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."

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Re: Bolton "Iran has 300-400 years of oil"

Unread postby rwwff » Wed 20 Sep 2006, 15:03:34

A curious thing occurs to me, if Iran's primary intention is to get electricity generation from Nuclear online; then I think the rational action would have been to take the deal (at least for now) where the Russians provide the fuel rods. Get the reactors built and experience running them; then quietly and methodlically work on the fuel cycle. Their internal uranium reserves aren't going anywhere.

I think it has to be the national pride thing; something to keep the pressure off the mullahs running the show. Keep the population focused on Armenawhatsit; build a bit of nationalist fervor.

PS: Anyone think Iran can produce enough food to feed 100 million people?
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