[tmazanec1]

Keep regular watch over this site: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html

[stu]

This was the first website I found that educated me on Peak Oil. Definately worth a look if you've not been there yet. Though I think Matt Savinar believes that every single one of us is going to die and that there is no hope.

Personally I think that billions are going to die in the next 20 years but the human race will still come through it.

[Permanently_Baffled]

LOL surely this is a contradiction. How can we watch the crash unfold on matt's website?? if his views are correct the internet will not be available or we will all be dead before we get a chance to observe the crash unfold.....

PB

BTW Stu I live just outside Southampton , how you think we will fare?

Use the pm if you want....

[Ayoob]

It's going to be a long friggin time before Matt's site goes down. Come on, guys, this is many many years in the future. We'll have a soft landing.

First, we'll have another economic recession, driving unemployment up again. Multiple families in the same household, just like it was back in the day. It'll suck, but we'll make it through that phase without too much trouble. This is years off. Minimum, 2008-2010, assuming Peak is in 2007.

Next, shortages of certain things. You won't be able to go to the store to get anything/everything 24/7/365. A little black market will spring up. People will think this is the Great Depression, but it won't be. This will take time as well. We have a lot of stuff here in the States. Garage sales will be decent moneymakers for a while. I bet a lot of bicycles will be stolen. Tons of them. There's a lot of bikes out here, though. There's enough to go around. We'll see this stretch out for years. 2010-2015? Gradually decreasing standard of living. I hope you have a relative with a big house that's all paid off. If not, squatting in apartment buildings or churches might become more common.

Then, shortages of everything. Gradually, more and more stuff will become unavailable at any price. We'll be eating more oatmeal and less bacon and eggs. [homer] Ohhhh, bacon....[/homer] This is going to be a tough adjustment.

People will move to farms and get jobs in the farms doing manual labor. They'll live in little shacks just like the other third world people. Eventually, some kind of organized local production of goods will resume on a small scale and very low-tech. I bet the first thing to show up will be local beer/wine/hard liquor. When a couple of your friends take up homebrewing as a recreational activity you will know what's up. 2015 and on.

I really don't think we're going to have a general dieoff due to starvation. It'll be more like gang warfare. You'll pay protection to the local Gangster Disciples or they'll take all your shit. Or you'll be the local Gangster Disciples. Either way... 2020 and on will be tough. Hopefully, the kids that are very young right now will take a realistic attitude toward all this and learn to play nice with each other. I don't know whether Europe will be better than the US. Europe has a long history of war among the European nations, and the US/Canada/Mexico don't. Don't know how this will play out, but we'll see.

I wonder what Africa will look like? I'm willing to bet a couple of rich Americans, Europeans, Japanese and a couple other groups will try to set up shop there with all the natural resources they have. Colonization, part three.

[Permanently_Baffled]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob', 'I')t's going to be a long friggin time before Matt's site goes down. Come on, guys, this is many many years in the future. We'll have a soft landing.

First, we'll have another economic recession, driving unemployment up again. Multiple families in the same household, just like it was back in the day. It'll suck, but we'll make it through that phase without too much trouble. This is years off. Minimum, 2008-2010, assuming Peak is in 2007.

Next, shortages of certain things. You won't be able to go to the store to get anything/everything 24/7/365. A little black market will spring up. People will think this is the Great Depression, but it won't be. This will take time as well. We have a lot of stuff here in the States. Garage sales will be decent moneymakers for a while. I bet a lot of bicycles will be stolen. Tons of them. There's a lot of bikes out here, though. There's enough to go around. We'll see this stretch out for years. 2010-2015? Gradually decreasing standard of living. I hope you have a relative with a big house that's all paid off. If not, squatting in apartment buildings or churches might become more common.

Then, shortages of everything. Gradually, more and more stuff will become unavailable at any price. We'll be eating more oatmeal and less bacon and eggs. [homer] Ohhhh, bacon....[/homer] This is going to be a tough adjustment.

People will move to farms and get jobs in the farms doing manual labor. They'll live in little shacks just like the other third world people. Eventually, some kind of organized local production of goods will resume on a small scale and very low-tech. I bet the first thing to show up will be local beer/wine/hard liquor. When a couple of your friends take up homebrewing as a recreational activity you will know what's up. 2015 and on.

I really don't think we're going to have a general dieoff due to starvation. It'll be more like gang warfare. You'll pay protection to the local Gangster Disciples or they'll take all your shit. Or you'll be the local Gangster Disciples. Either way... 2020 and on will be tough. Hopefully, the kids that are very young right now will take a realistic attitude toward all this and learn to play nice with each other. I don't know whether Europe will be better than the US. Europe has a long history of war among the European nations, and the US/Canada/Mexico don't. Don't know how this will play out, but we'll see.

I wonder what Africa will look like? I'm willing to bet a couple of rich Americans, Europeans, Japanese and a couple other groups will try to set up shop there with all the natural resources they have. Colonization, part three.

[trespam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Permanently_Baffled', 'T')his is a soft landing ? , great!

[Fatherof4]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob', 'I') wonder what Africa will look like? I'm willing to bet a couple of rich Americans, Europeans, Japanese and a couple other groups will try to set up shop there with all the natural resources they have. Colonization, part three.

[The_Virginian]

PB you will need all that lovely Wiskey Scotland makes when the peak hits. Try for a Soft Bottle landing.

BTW, Whats your favotie cheap wiskey? Mine is Dirk, or Highland Poacher.

[Agren]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')TW, Whats your favotie cheap wiskey?

[smiley]

Ayoob, one thing you're assuming is that the effects of the decline will be more or less evenly spread. I think it is part of human nature to take care of yourself first, even if that means that other people are suffering.

Globally the first countries that will be cut off from the oil supply are the poor countries. By denying other countries oil the consumption in the west can still keep growing. Between 2000 and 2003 the total oil production decreased. Yet in the same period the oil consumption of Europe and the US increased. If this is holds, then the real effects of the peak in the form of shortages won't reach us until a few years after the actual peak.

Within one country I can see the same thing happening. The rich part of the country will still be driving SUV's when the poor part is having trouble to find the oil to heat their houses.

From reading the various posts here I believe that many people believe that peak oil is some kind of equalizer. It will bring those flashy corporate people back to earth, and re-establishes the value of the traditional agricultural society. I think this is more wishful thinking than reality. The reality is that corporate America and corporate Europe holds all the cards. If anything PO will be a divider, dividing the country between those who can afford to buy energy, to buy solar panels, to buy a wind mill and those who can't.

And those who can afford all that will be definitely better off than those who can't.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')TW, Whats your favotie cheap wiskey? Mine is Dirk, or Highland Poacher

[Permanently_Baffled]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Virginian', ':')
BTW, Whats your favotie cheap wiskey?

[pea-jay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')rom reading the various posts here I believe that many people believe that peak oil is some kind of equalizer. It will bring those flashy corporate people back to earth, and re-establishes the value of the traditional agricultural society. I think this is more wishful thinking than reality. The reality is that corporate America and corporate Europe holds all the cards. If anything PO will be a divider, dividing the country between those who can afford to buy energy, to buy solar panels, to buy a wind mill and those who can't.

[BlueGhost]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Permanently_Baffled', 'L')OL surely this is a contradiction. How can we watch the crash unfold on matt's website?? if his views are correct the internet will not be available or we will all be dead before we get a chance to observe the crash unfold.....

PB

BTW Stu I live just outside Southampton , how you think we will fare?

Use the pm if you want....

[Mower]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', ' ')If anything PO will be a divider, dividing the country between those who can afford to buy energy, to buy solar panels, to buy a wind mill and those who can't.

And those who can afford all that will be definitely better off than those who can't.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob', 'I') hope you have a relative with a big house that's all paid off. If not, squatting in apartment buildings or churches might become more common.

[The_Virginian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ice spelling , have you been drinking ....?

I must admit I hate whiskey, I'd rather pickle my (limited) brains on beer and wine .....

[gg3]

The high-and-mighty have further to fall than the already-humble. This by itself suggests that they'll take a tumble, though perhaps will still have comparative advantages.

To this add the issues of maintaining "control" and power differentials against a rising tide of mass discontent. The sheer logistics make it impossible: just as it ultimately became impossible for communist states to maintain the coordination & control needed for centrally-planned economies. Think combinatorial math, and complex system dynamics.


How people respond to crises: Extrapolating from an experiment with monkeys.

When captive monkeys are given "enough" bananas, each eats his/her share and their "society" behaves in a stable and predictable manner. When a significant excess of bananas is introduced, what happens is that the social structure becomes unstable: much hoarding of and fighting over surplus bananas, even as they go to rot because they can't be eaten.

When human societies face sudden crises such as natural disasters, that rapidly reduce the material wellbeing of individuals, the predominant behavior is an increase in cooperation among the vast majority, and an increase in parasitic and predatory behaviors by a minority (e.g. looting, price-gouging, etc.). When human socities have significant surplus wealth, then you see the tendency toward unstable-state behavior characterized by an increase in fighting over the surplus.

So far, the behavior of humans roughly parallels that of our ape cousins.

What I don't think we know very well, is what happens to humans when they start with a surplus and then find themselves moving *more gradually* into a state of scarcity. However, one could try the relevant experiment with apes, and chances are it will be instructive.

[stu]

The website and book that first bought awareness about PO to myself and doubtless many others.

Savinar lays out all of the facts that you need to understand about Peak Oil and all of the implications of it. Starting with what is Peak Oil he then moves to to discuss why other forms of oil extraction will not work and then proceeds to do the same thing with alternative energys. Finally he paints a very grim picture of a future defined by resource wars, food riots and a mass die off.

If you are introduced to PO through this book then it will probably scare the crap out of you. Savinar paints the most bleakest picture possible. Even going so far as to say that we should develop a sense of humour because we are all going to die anyway.

However his style of writing is easy to read as he starts each section with a question relating to PO and then answers it, which gives the reader easy access to information.

Very pessimistic but also very informative. Rating=***

[basketballjones]

I had almost the same experience. Matt's lifeaftertheoilcrash website is how i found out about PO. I remember sitting there almost dumbfounded after fully comprehending it's consequences. The realisation that oil powers every single aspect of our society.

It's a great site, but i don't think i agree if it will be quite the hard crash scenario Matt paints.

[vic]

Matt Savinar really deserves appreciation to bring the issue of oil depletion to so many of us including me. Though he pessimistically paints the scenario, anything better is possible only by looking at the worst scenario.
pre-informed is pre-armed.