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Why no matter what, humanity will experience peak oil.

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Why no matter what, humanity will experience peak oil.

Unread postby pilferage » Mon 22 Nov 2004, 01:52:41

AKA- food for the trolls...

I was just thinking that it's a logical fallacy to state that peak oil won't occur based on one key idea. That our supply of oil is finite...
we have two branches we can take, the supply of oil will peak at some point in time because demand will outstrip supply, or....
the supply of oil will peak because at some point in time demand for it will terminally drop.

Now since (based on previous experience), supply is increasing with new discoveries dropping, at some point in the (most likely near) future we will hit peak oil. This will result in oil prices rising, along with 'stagflation'. After that, who knows what will happen, imho it'll up to humanity to decide whether it wants to fight or cooperate (unfortunately for us, we have a violent past, so a violent future doesn't seem that far off).

Of course would could pull net positive energy fusion, or some new super-mystery fuel :roll: as good or better than oil out of our asses, but until we do (or possibly if we do it too late), we are screwed.
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Unread postby Sencha » Mon 22 Nov 2004, 07:31:31

Finally, someone as pessimistic as I am :wink:

I hate that you're probably right, but you're probably right. (I say probably because, I could not get out of bed without some sliver of self-denial about Peak Oil happening.)

Still going to have a hard time convincing the trolls though, but fight the good fight. Well, its more depressing than good but...
Vision without action is a dream, action without vision is a nightmare.
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Unread postby jato » Mon 22 Nov 2004, 17:50:54

I am right up there in the pessimist crowd. The most realistic scenario 'IMHO is found at:

http://www.dieoff.org

I also think Matt Savinar has it right.

Jay Hanson at dieoff takes into account the human factor. That is to say, we could possibly have a soft-landing, but leave it to us humans to screw it up. The more I think about it; we will be lucky if we wind up with one billion after the crash is over.

However, I am taking it rather well. We all have to die of something I guess.

:) Have a nice day! :)
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Unread postby jato » Mon 22 Nov 2004, 17:54:33

Interview with Jay Hanson of dieoff.org, June 2003, a must read for hard crashers.

http://www.wordwright.com.au/paul/Hanso ... erview.htm
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Re: Why no matter what, humanity will experience peak oil.

Unread postby Grimnir » Mon 22 Nov 2004, 18:03:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pilferage', 'I') was just thinking that it's a logical fallacy to state that peak oil won't occur based on one key idea. That our supply of oil is finite...
we have two branches we can take, the supply of oil will peak at some point in time because demand will outstrip supply, or....
the supply of oil will peak because at some point in time demand for it will terminally drop.


That's true, of course, but it's not very useful. Humanity will someday go extinct no matter what, so by the same logic we will eventually experience peak air, peak iron, peak football, and peak video games. The only important questions are how soon, and how bad?
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Unread postby jato » Mon 22 Nov 2004, 18:21:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's true, of course, but it's not very useful. Humanity will someday go extinct no matter what, so by the same logic we will eventually experience peak air, peak iron, peak football, and peak video games.


I think it is very useful. I am not sure why you brought up the other nonsense peaks. Unless you think peak oil is a long ways off and does not matter to this generation!?!
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Unread postby Grimnir » Mon 22 Nov 2004, 18:29:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's true, of course, but it's not very useful. Humanity will someday go extinct no matter what, so by the same logic we will eventually experience peak air, peak iron, peak football, and peak video games.


I think it is very useful. I am not sure why you brought up the other nonsense peaks. Unless you think peak oil is a long ways off and does not matter to this generation!?!


The argument was that peak oil is bound to happen someday because either we'll have used half of it up or we'll no longer need it, either because we have alternatives or because we're all dead or cavemen. Of course one of those things will happen sooner or later, just like it will happen for any other commodity we use (no matter how silly ;)). The important questions are whether demand will outstrip supply when oil peaks, and whether it will peak soon. If the answer to either is no, the odds of peak oil causing a catastrophe are pretty small.
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Re: Why no matter what, humanity will experience peak oil.

Unread postby pilferage » Mon 22 Nov 2004, 23:31:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grimnir', 'T')hat's true, of course, but it's not very useful. Humanity will someday go extinct no matter what, so by the same logic we will eventually experience peak air, peak iron, peak football, and peak video games. The only important questions are how soon, and how bad?


It's usefull because it can be used to shove a sock in the mouth of most trolls, obviously it's not useful when it comes down the the nitty gritty of who, what, when, where, why, and how....
but that's not why I posted it.
Also, peak air, peak iron, peak football, and peak video games aren't valid conceptualizations because they haven't ben formulated. For instance, what is "air"? Oxygen, the rest of our atmosphere, is it a local reference to the lower atomsphere? Etc...
But since oil is the limiting factor in our society's growth, we've decided to define and study this unstoppable event. Peak iron, air, etc... not only don't cap the limits of our growth (yet), but they also aren't rigorously defined.
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Makes the Christian Paradigm relavent

Unread postby RonBonnell » Thu 25 Nov 2004, 02:28:10

Jay speaks of genetic fitness being the end all of end all's. But there are those who sacrifice their genetic fitness. Not only were there the "normal people" who shot down naked women and children but there were also those who sacrificed their lives to save others. Schindler’s list, Dietrich Bonhoffer, Anne Frank’s family, etc.

I was struck by how well Jay describes the human condition. He hit the nail on the head. It is in our genetic makeup to have joy from more things. I know I do. And he is right. It is the obtaining of them rather than the having of them that brings the thrill. But that thrill is short lived and we have to go on to another. Its sort of like the fun is in the acceleration not the speed once we get there.

The biblical message is of happiness that doesn't come from these temporary things. Right or wrong, these might have been just our collective conscious trying to find a way out of our dilemma (which would be pretty astute for people thousands of years ago). Or maybe it really is the wisdom of God trying to bring us to happiness instead of meaningless ruin.

James 4: 1 - 4

1 What is the source of the wars and the fights among you? Don't they come from the cravings that are at war within you? 2 You desire and do not have. You murder and covet and cannot obtain. You fight and war. You do not have because you do not ask. 3 You ask and don't receive because you ask wrongly, so that you may spend it on your desires for pleasure.

i.e. we ask for the wrong things, more stuff, rather than God's desire for character, love, peace, justice etc.

Matthew 6:19-24

19 "Don't collect for yourselves treasures on earth, where moth and rust destroy and where thieves break in and steal. 20 But collect for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys, and where thieves don't break in and steal. 21 For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also. 22 "The eye is the lamp of the body. If your eye is generous, your whole body will be full of light. 23 But if your eye is stingy, your whole body will be full of darkness. So if the light within you is darkness--how deep is that darkness! 24 "No one can be a slave of two masters, since either he will hate one and love the other, or be devoted to one and despise the other. You cannot be slaves of God and of money.

John 4: 13-15

13 Jesus said, "Everyone who drinks from this water will get thirsty again. 14 But whoever drinks from the water that I will give him will never get thirsty again--ever! In fact, the water I will give him will become a well of water springing up within him for eternal life."

John 10:10

I have come that you might have life and have it more abundantly.

Ps 16:11 -

You reveal the path of life to me;
in Your presence is abundant joy;
in Your right hand are eternal pleasures.


I know Jay would say these are the illogical hopes some hold onto. And working for eternal treasures is just another way of trying to ensure our genetic fitness to continue not only in this life but also in an eternal life. However, I think the message here is not so much to store up the treasures for eternal gain in the future but to focus on the things that are important, that can't be destroyed, and you will have a better life now, instead of being slaves to your desire. Its saying if your heart is on your earthly treasures, you will never be satisfied.

So there is some kick against this genetic condition.

Of course, the Bible doesn't have a very happy earthly ending either, (again pretty astute thinking by those people thousands of years ago). So I have no utopian view that it’s all going to turn around. It’s the right message for survival, and true happiness, but we are far too easily suckered into the alternative of wanting more.
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Unread postby 0mar » Thu 25 Nov 2004, 06:46:18

Give me unlimited power and I can make the world a better place :)
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 23 Sep 2024, 20:54:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'I') am right up there in the pessimist crowd. The most realistic scenario 'IMHO is found at:

http://www.dieoff.org

I also think Matt Savinar has it right.


He didn't. His next act was being a palm reader of some sort..or astrologer to the gullible. And when it turns out that didn't tell him the future either, he was found later on the payroll of the California public school system as a substitute teacher.

I wonder if he knew that when he became an astrologer?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Why no matter what, humanity will experience peak oil.

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 21 Jan 2025, 20:12:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pilferage', 'I') was just thinking that it's a logical fallacy to state that peak oil won't occur based on one key idea. That our supply of oil is finite...


What built modern America? Oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')merica’s roads are critical for moving an ever-increasing number of people and goods. However, these vital lifelines are frequently underfunded, and over 40% of the system is now in poor or mediocre condition. As the backlog of rehabilitation needs grows, motorists are forced to pay over $1,000 every year in wasted time and fuel.
https://infrastructurereportcard.org/ca ... structure/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')017-- America's Roads Are Crumbling And Packed With Cars: More than $2 trillion is needed to repair 4 million miles of road in the U.S., according to the American Society of Civil Engineers. At present, there is funding for less than half of that task, not counting President Donald Trump’s proposed $1 trillion infrastructure stimulus package, which he pushed heavily during the first weeks of his presidency but which now remains in limbo.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bisnow/201 ... with-cars/

That's PeakOil at work folks, and it didn't start with the end of the shale oil "bonanza" :lol:
A nation built on Oil can't possibly hope to maintain it's high standards as oil grows scarce and expensive. China and India, the two most populous nations on the planet rose up 20 years ago to demand an ever increasing share of the world's exports. The World's conventional oil production plateaued, then went into irrevocable decline. As it declined other non-conventional or uneconomic oil was brought on-stream and much effort was spent manipulating data to make it look like there wasn't a problem. But id it wasn't a problem then all the roads would be in good repair like before.

It's no longer a debate about peak oil, it's a debate about which road you'll take to get to work so you can minimize the wear and tear on your car. It's about how far you can afford to live from your job at $80 oil prices and wages that are decimated by inflation. It's about the $US and how long it can maintain its strength against the BRICS alliance, because when it falters, all that imported oil will cost a lot lot more. A lot of that oil is imported now just so it can be blended with the shale output, to make it suitable for Trucks, which the nation runs on.

2007~2008, $148 a barrel oil, triggering the Global Financial Crisis and signalling the beginning of the end of the age of oil. I hope you sold your V8s. I did, no point in sailing directly into the wind.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Why no matter what, humanity will experience peak oil.

Unread postby AgentR11 » Wed 22 Jan 2025, 17:34:36

I kept my V8, but I also have a very efficient little Toyota that does most of my driving miles. Not yet ready to buy into the electric, but maybe the next purchase I'll feel a bit different about it.

We are clearly in the window of Peak Oil, and it turned out to be much less exciting or dramatic than many folks anticipated. Its just a slow grind down between demand destruction, price peaks and crashes, and supply instability. With the emphasis on SLOW. Kind of makes it hard to get out of the way of its impacts, that slowness. Downsizing is always helpful, but whether its enough, who knows. I figure I need about 30 years maximum of comfortable lifestyle extension, just based on lifespan; maybe less, but almost certainly not more. I don't think hardly anyone's financially active and self sufficient at 90, no reason to pretend otherwise. and its certainly not comfortable!

So yeah, peak oil is occurring as we watch, and for now and probably for the next decade or few, we'll gloss over shortages of the good stuff, substituting this that and the other as best we can to kick the can down the road just a little further.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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Re: Why no matter what, humanity will experience peak oil.

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 22 Jan 2025, 23:24:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak Oil, and it turned out to be much less exciting or dramatic than many folks anticipated.

It certainly did, probably because of all the fearmongering plagurists that come on line to build their own little empires. Michael Ruppert, and his ilk, no one was happier than I when he put a pistol in his mouth, Oh they made out that he was depressed and all that, well I would be too if I'd made so many life mistakes and taken so much money off people for nothing just to fund my lifestyle. His old website has finally been abandoned by the faithful, it advertises Casinos now.

Don't they look so chic, makes you want to buy some "Gambling" cloths and get down to Vegas doesn't it.

Image

But peak oil has actually been quite dramatic, for many. You'd never see them here, you need money for a computer and a connection and they live in tents. Many others live in their cars, others struggle to pay rent of make mortgage repayments. As someone once said, "The depression is here, it's just not equally distributed" The extent of the Lies in the Government and media today is Legend. Anything unpalatable (aside from political spins) is buried under an avalanche of fake news and manipulated data. They have certainly learned from the Great Depression experience, no bankers are swinging from street lamps or jumping out of windows. They just jump from job to job, a Golden Parachute on their back.

What was the Great Depression anyway. As was said, people had everything but money. And where does money come from? Jobs of course. So people had everything but jobs, and jobs in the modern (industrial) economy comes from creating stuff and selling it to consumers. Once consumers have enough they stop buying, then you give them access to credit (Debt) and they can keep on buying and keep the economy alive longer. Bubbles are created, in the 1920's it was land prices and farm prices and everyone was buying a car and a radio, on Debt.

If you kept your job through the GD you did fine. Everything got cheaper and there were some real deals to be had. If you'd kept your money out of the Banks and stock market that is. So it will be with PeakOil, as long as you have the means you'll still be able to get what you want. Just beware of Banks and the stock market.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Why no matter what, humanity will experience peak oil.

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 22 Jan 2025, 23:38:35

1933

Image


Image

2022

Image

Image

WAKE UP!!
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Why no matter what, humanity will experience peak oil.

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 23 Jan 2025, 08:48:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'J')ust beware of Banks and the stock market.

PO means a faltering economy. Not enough energy to produce goods and services. The result is inflation as the amount of goods vs money shrinks. A shrinking economy will result in predictable response by the national banks, lower interest rates, creating even more money. Which will be even more inflation. Hoarding cash will be the worst you can do. All others, stocks, gold, real estate will be slightly less worse. In the end your standard of living will shrink, no matter what you do.
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Re: Why no matter what, humanity will experience peak oil.

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 25 Jan 2025, 00:06:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'J')ust beware of Banks and the stock market.

PO means a faltering economy. Not enough energy to produce goods and services. The result is inflation as the amount of goods vs money shrinks. A shrinking economy will result in predictable response by the national banks, lower interest rates, creating even more money. Which will be even more inflation. Hoarding cash will be the worst you can do. All others, stocks, gold, real estate will be slightly less worse. In the end your standard of living will shrink, no matter what you do.


So, being some 7 years past global peak now, how much longer do you think we will continue to wait before these results arrive?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Why no matter what, humanity will experience peak oil.

Unread postby mousepad » Sat 25 Jan 2025, 09:01:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'J')ust beware of Banks and the stock market.

PO means a faltering economy. Not enough energy to produce goods and services. The result is inflation as the amount of goods vs money shrinks. A shrinking economy will result in predictable response by the national banks, lower interest rates, creating even more money. Which will be even more inflation. Hoarding cash will be the worst you can do. All others, stocks, gold, real estate will be slightly less worse. In the end your standard of living will shrink, no matter what you do.


So, being some 7 years past global peak now, how much longer do you think we will continue to wait before these results arrive?


I thought we're not at the oil peak yet, or are we? I kind of lost track of all this.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/265 ... s-per-day/

I thought it was your calculations who predicted some issues around 2030? Ain't that right?
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Re: Why no matter what, humanity will experience peak oil.

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 31 Jan 2025, 22:15:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')So, being some 7 years past global peak now, how much longer do you think we will continue to wait before these results arrive?


I thought we're not at the oil peak yet, or are we? I kind of lost track of all this.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/265 ... s-per-day/

I thought it was your calculations who predicted some issues around 2030? Ain't that right?


My calculations aren't pubically available. The 2018 global peak oil rate is the most recent, no requirement it be the final one of the century. Could be, but not a requirement. Good information says there is no resource restraint for a global peak oil prior to 2050, the oil is certainly there, but after that things get more problematic without some precursor conditions, related to geopolitics and price.

The only real remaining peak oil call from the pre-2010 peak oil frenzy still in play is the EIA's, which was about 2037 or so if memory serves.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Why no matter what, humanity will experience peak oil.

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 31 Jan 2025, 23:11:05

welcome back mut, long time no drivel
Image
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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