[gwmss15]

Does anyone know why OIL and pertrol prices are falling so fast in last few weeks.

a month ago the OIL price was around USD$75 per barrel now its around USD$63 per barrel.

Petrol in AUD$ 1.49 per liter a few weeks back now around AUD$ 1.20 per liter

does this means peak oil is over or delayed for a long time

or is this something more?

[waegari]

They seem to be moving upward again: Bloomberg

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il prices rose in New York, reversing seven days of losses, amid signs that OPEC will try to keep prices above $60 a barrel.

[Carlhole]

I would say that that the oil price decline of late has been largely due to:

(1) A slowing of the US and (probably) world economic growth somewhat. This creates larger inventories, at least until the next spate of rapid growth.

(2) The Iranians have caved somewhat to demands to halt their nuclear enrichment process and some of the fear factor has been driven out of the price per barrel.

(3) The hurricane season does not look remotely as threatening as last year's cycle.

(4) US summer driving season is ending.

(5) Hoarding of oil and contracts had been a brief phenomenon earlier in the season. That appears to be at an end for now, creating selling pressure.

(6) Speculation and hedge-fund involvement has always been an oft-cited factor in recent prices. Profit-taking could easily be part of the recent price drop.

(7) News of the GOM discovery may have allayed fears regarding the lack of large new discoveries and that could have effected the market-price, somewhat although anyone who reads in detail about the GOM prospects should not feel very comfortable about that 15 billion barrel figure being thrown around not the ease with which even a fraction of that amount can be extracted.

(8.) And lastly, perhaps with more far reaching effects, Vladimir Putin has made it clear to leaderships all over the world that Russia is interested in establishing long term forward contracts with all countries for its oil and natural gas resources. He wants to establish a high degreee of stability in energy markets worldwide and wants Russia to benefit from that stability as one of the world's great energy exporters.

Russia's low-key hand in this game probably has had a big influence on Iran's decision to take a more accomodating stance with the US over its nuclear program. If Russia had played that Iran card more wickedly, who knows what havoc might have been wreaked in the region just below its southern border.

[DantesPeak]

All the above reasons are valid. Keep in mind that depsite what we are told daily in business news reports, it is not impossible for the US economy (and others follwing along) to suddenly start falling much faster than almost anyone expects.

The reason why this could happen is because of the way the US eocnomy - plus others - rely heavily on the creation of new debt and the stability of the US dollar.

No doubt that slower economic growth will reduce the price of energy at first. However the Fed, etc., will later increase the money supply and push the price of oil back up - even in the middle of a recession. This has been US government policy since 1932 and I don't expect it to change.

If the US is not going into a recession, I would epxect the price of oil to bounce back very soon.

[nth]

The key reason prices are falling is that there are more supplies than demand when oil prices go up to $70+ during this time of the year when US gasoline consumption drops. Oil demand has always been seasonal. Last year, we had major oil production disruptions that made oil prices go way up. We are still waiting for that disruption.

[aahala]

An even more puzzling decline is US gas pump prices.

A few weeks ago, when crude was about $74, the price here
was about $3.00, now it's $2.29. Some of the decline is
understandable and some of it ain't.

[gwmss15]

Is it possiable at some point the future the price of oil may come under price level controll rules. say around USD$80 to USD$100 a barrel and the NYMEX exchange closed down as the price would be fixed to keep it under control and the govts taking more control over reserves and the profits ie taxing it much higher to pay for post peak oil transision programs to reduced the effects on the total economy ie minimise the worst of a recession.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'I')s it possiable at some point the future the price of oil may come under price level controll rules. say around USD$80 to USD$100 a barrel and the NYMEX exchange closed down as the price would be fixed to keep it under control and the govts taking more control over reserves and the profits ie taxing it much higher to pay for post peak oil transision programs to reduced the effects on the total economy ie minimise the worst of a recession.

[coyote]

Price volatility, guys. Up and down. We expected this.

[WildRose]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'P')rice volatility, guys. Up and down. We expected this.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WildRose', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'P')rice volatility, guys. Up and down. We expected this.

[Temperedoil]

We can expect the recent drop in the price of oil to be a short-lived phenomenon, and it is worth noting that the price of oil as it stands is still high by historical standards.

The recent fall is suggestive of a market which is reacting to any and all news relating to the supply/demand equation. Considering that the US government is still pressing for sanctions against Iran, that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have both announced their largest oil fields to be in decline, that even analysts and industry insiders dismissive of Peak Oil are suggesting that the recent Gulf of Mexico is not enough to make any appreciable difference on its own on a long term basis, and that Russia's potential to continue to export large quantities of oil beyond 2010 may be doubtful, the recent fall in the price of oil may be considered more of a breather than an indication of things to come. Particularly if that drop leads to a return to the increases in demand that we have seen in recent years.

[DigitalCubano]

Why ask questions? Gas is cheaper. Egro, its inevitable that you use more of it now. Jevon's Paradox demands it. Chop, chop! Get moving!

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', 'W')hy ask questions? Gas is cheaper. Egro, its inevitable that you use more of it now. Jevon's Paradox demands it. Chop, chop! Get moving!

[BrownDog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', 'A')n even more puzzling decline is US gas pump prices.

A few weeks ago, when crude was about $74, the price here
was about $3.00, now it's $2.29. Some of the decline is
understandable and some of it ain't.

[budeone]

What about that there are elections coming up...