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Oil - The Ultimate WMD?

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Oil - The Ultimate WMD?

Unread postby Aaron » Sun 13 Jun 2004, 08:49:59

Recent news items seem to indicate that terrorist groups around the world recognize what many other believe; that oil is the ultimate WMD, and the Achilles heel of western cultures.

While an atomic explosion in downtown... well anywhere would be bad, imagine the effects of a real disruption in oil supplies.

In-line with America's adventure-ism around the world, and particularly in Iraq, should the US not demand a clear and accurate reporting of oil reserve estimates from all the major producers? If oil is the potential weapon it seems it is, and with terror groups openly admitting to attempts in using it as such, does this not fall into the category of global terrorism?

Perhaps the day when the US will announce to the United Nations that "Weaponized Oil" constitutes a clear and present danger to the world, and producers must allow UN inspectors to verify the validity of reserve claims over 500mb is near.

Thoughts?
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Unread postby gg3 » Sun 13 Jun 2004, 22:40:19

Your main thesis I agree with, your corollary I'm not so certain of quite yet.

Oil as terr weapon is an excellent case of "not-doing," i.e. subtracting something society needs, has as much impact as adding something that is actively detrimental. So, yes, this is a serious vulnerability that needs to be addressed.

I'm not so sure about requiring the oil producing countries to publicize their reserves. For one thing, I don't know of any means by which a world body could do it effectively, i.e. there's still plenty of room for cheating, and policing it would be almost impossible.

Second, we were getting good information from Saudi via CIA case officer Plame, until some vengeful idiot in the Administration blew her cover. This is one of many absolutely stunning examples of abject incompetence in the present Administration's handling of the war. Falling headlong for Iranian spies being another.

So for our own national security we need a new Administration that has some actual on-the-ground experience of warfare, and has a better appreciation for the necessities of protecting intelligence sources & methods.
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Thats kind of scary

Unread postby Cool Hand Linc » Mon 14 Jun 2004, 00:06:16

Can America declare anything they want a weapon? That is kind of scary to think about actually.

Thoughts? My head is hurting now.
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Unread postby Soft_Landing » Mon 14 Jun 2004, 00:17:32

gg3 wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m not so sure about requiring the oil producing countries to publicize their reserves. For one thing, I don't know of any means by which a world body could do it effectively, i.e. there's still plenty of room for cheating, and policing it would be almost impossible.


Matt Simmons seems to think this would be quite easy... (i.e., 13 points of light)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')ttp://www.globalpublicmedia.com/INTERVIEWS/MATT.SIMMONS/mattsimmons.13points.2004-04.php
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Re: Oil - The Ultimate WMD?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 22:00:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'R')ecent news items seem to indicate that terrorist groups around the world recognize what many other believe; that oil is the ultimate WMD, and the Achilles heel of western cultures.

While an atomic explosion in downtown... well anywhere would be bad, imagine the effects of a real disruption in oil supplies.

In-line with America's adventure-ism around the world, and particularly in Iraq, should the US not demand a clear and accurate reporting of oil reserve estimates from all the major producers? If oil is the potential weapon it seems it is, and with terror groups openly admitting to attempts in using it as such, does this not fall into the category of global terrorism?

Perhaps the day when the US will announce to the United Nations that "Weaponized Oil" constitutes a clear and present danger to the world, and producers must allow UN inspectors to verify the validity of reserve claims over 500mb is near.

Thoughts?


This wasn't an issue when Aaron wrote it, and it isn't an issue today. But the idea of two reserve auditors arguing over the shape of the probability distribution which governs where the P90 estimate is for a proven reserve estimates would make better reality TV then TeenMom.
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Re: Oil - The Ultimate WMD?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 23:51:05

The thing is, so long as the Persian Gulf continues to be a large percentage of world oil trade they will have a lot of political influence. Add in the fact that any real large scale war tageting oil export terminals in the Persian Gulf could stop exports for six to twenty four months until peace is enforced and repairs are made creates a serious WMD aspect. If God forbid ISIS or some other terrorists got a functional nuke bomb they could do more world economic harm blowing up the big Saudi export terminal than just about any other use of it.
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