[EnergyUnlimited]

Lets assume that current GoM oil will prove to be a feasible project.
How much oil (in estimate) could be found in similar other areas on the Earth?

What about drilling of ocean floor (lets assume, that we will master technology necessary to carry on such drilling)?

What about possible renessance of oil industry by deep water drilling projects?

Could it deffer PO for next 100 or 200 years?

Any other ideas?

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'L')ets assume that current GoM oil will prove to be a feasible project.
How much oil (in estimate) could be found in similar other areas on the Earth?

What about drilling of ocean floor (lets assume, that we will master technology necessary to carry on such drilling)?

What about possible renessance of oil industry by deep water drilling projects?

Could it deffer PO for next 100 or 200 years?

Any other ideas?

[venky]

Hey this is fun!! Let me try.

I predict that oil as we know it today will peak in 2012 and goes into decline at 3% a year. There is panic; the stock market crashes and there is and economic depression. However a crash program in alternatives is implemented by governments around the world which alleviates the crisis somewhat, but continued depletion prevents economic recovery. However then due to the high prices and new technology; deep water oil reserves in the order of 5 trillion barrels are found. But having learnt our lesson mankind strictly follows a policy of carbon quotas

Economic recovery finally takes place in 2025 thanks to the new reserves and global warming is also solved thanks to the carbon quotas. And we all live happily ever after!!!

[Ayame]

We have now picked all the low hanging easy to reach fruit and are moving on up the tree where the fruit is harder to grab, is more expensive to grab (need ladders) and we can't get it down into the baskets as fast as before.

Welcome to diminishing returns. And if you have read Tainters book then you would be scared.

[NeoPeasant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'L')ets assume that current GoM oil will prove to be a feasible project.
How much oil (in estimate) could be found in similar other areas on the Earth?

What about drilling of ocean floor (lets assume, that we will master technology necessary to carry on such drilling)?

What about possible renessance of oil industry by deep water drilling projects?

Could it deffer PO for next 100 or 200 years?

Any other ideas?

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'P')eople will only know the production decline era as a bad time, they will not appreciate how much worse it could have been without the influx of deepwater production.

[CARVER]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'H')ey this is fun!! Let me try.

I predict that oil as we know it today will peak in 2012 and goes into decline at 3% a year.

[NeoPeasant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 't')here'll still be 20 pound bags of rice selling for less than $10; and 5 pound bags of flour selling for a buck and change. As long as that is the reality in the US, there will be no *true* suffering.

[DantesPeak]

I am thinking along the lines of Mr. Bill. Perhaps the current cost of GOM deep sea oil is only $40 (at least that what I see quoted from energy industry sources). However I would bet that does not include the risk of hurricanes, insurance and/or protection from terrorism/war, and – almost unnoticed – earthquake damage. Locating GOM deep sea drilling in one of the worst hurricane zones in the world seems to have great risks. Also industry is basing its costs on current, average costs – which may be well less than marginal costs in a few years. Anyway, altogether in the long run the cost of deep water GOM oil could exceed the market price. That would seem to make it valuable only for the military or government - where profits are not considered.

I suppose it’s possible there are other deep water drilling sites yet to be discovered, but I suspect there will be similar difficulties getting the oil out. So altogether, this won’t postpone PO – but maybe postpone the end of oil way down the road.

[PeakOilPrincess]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CARVER', 'T')here will be a lot more deep water oil, however this will be due to rising sea levels caused by global warming

[mekrob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ould it deffer PO for next 100 or 200 years?

[sicophiliac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CARVER', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'H')ey this is fun!! Let me try.

I predict that oil as we know it today will peak in 2012 and goes into decline at 3% a year.

[mekrob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')aha, lets not forgot once all the ice starts sliding off Antarctica we can start exploring for oil there.. thatll help out even more !

[venky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')aha, lets not forgot once all the ice starts sliding off Antarctica we can start exploring for oil there.. thatll help out even more !

[mekrob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')erhaps, mankind would use those reserves wisely then and implement strict quotas?

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ould it deffer PO for next 100 or 200 years?

[evilgenius]

I was looking at one of the speculative stocks that I own on NASA's worldwind, they have a concession in Indonesia. I thought, man the shelf drops off fast there. I ought to sell this before the others realize there can't be anything there. Then along comes this deep water GoM discovery. The point is that anywhere that sediments have piled up for millions of years there can be oil, even under two miles of water.

What is going to be difficult is to economically recover that oil. The GoM discovery will test many procedures for the first time. If the oil industry can develop a systematic approach to deep water then prospects like my liitle co. will be developed. I don't think this will forestall the peak one bit. Because of the costs involved and the market situation the economic impetus alone will enforce the peak.

[ltplayer]

What are the prospects for deep water oil finds? I read somewhere (and I've been trying to find the book all day) that deeper than a certain level oil basically cooked or could not form or something like that. The depth seemed pretty shallow but I can't remember the exact number.

So I'm wondering if I was mislead by the book, or if I'm missing something.

[heroineworshipper]

Nothing in the deep water but deep water. The amount of energy needed to lift oil a certain distance exceeds the energy in the oil. That is until we rediscover slavery.