[smiley]

Just some random thoughts. The last half year I've got the feeling that the situation is deteriorating very fast. About a year ago I thought that we still would have a few years to the peak. Now I'm not so sure anymore.

I've got a strange and alarming feeling. It is like sitting in a rollercoaster. You know, the first part were you are on the upslope and you're unable to tell when you reach the top. Suddenly you see the track disappearing in front of you and you know you reached the top and are about to plunge down. That feeling.

The past year I've been hearing only bad news: reserve revisions, dwindling stocks, problems in the Caspian and in the ME, skyrocketing oil prices etc.

The only thing I'm not sure about is how my own bias affects this. When you're aware of PO you are certainly more looking for the negative news; for signs of the peak. I don't know how that affects your judgment. It also seems that negative news gets more media coverage than positive news. When things are running smoothly there is no need to write about it.

Some countries are proclaiming that they will increase production for the next few years. However their remarks are contradicted by officials within the same countries. I made the choice to believe the negative forecasts, although I have no solid proof to justify that decision, other than that precious production growth forecast turned-out to be overly-optimistic.

The oil prices indicate that production is about to be (or has been) overrun by demand. If Russia and OPEC fail to increase their production we are now entering the second half of the oil age. If not we could have another few more years. That part is clear.

The question is whether to believe the optimists or the pessimists. I am leaning toward the pessimists, but I have problems justifying that decision based on hard evidence. It is more like a gut feeling plus some circumstantial evidence.

I'd like to hear how you feel about this. Are things really that gloomy as I am starting to believe they are or am I perhaps starting to be affected by the negativism that surrounds this subject?

[Madpaddy]

Hello Smiley,

I get those same "hairs standing up on the back of the neck", feelings a lot more often now too. How bad are things?

1. US has reelected the world's number one threat to world peace.
2. Palestinian/Israeli conflict entering uncharted territory with death of Arafat.
3. Early signs that the US economy is slowing down again.
4. Despite unprecedented low interst rates - the European economy refuses to jump start.
5. China making more and more waves over Taiwan.
6. US bogged down in unwinnable war in Iraq and sabre rattling at Iran.
7. Reality TV shows becoming more and more stupid appealing to the lowest common denominator. When we move house next month the Idiot Box is not coming with us.(well mayb for DVDs).

Despite my salary having gone up 50% in the last 2 years, I have less disposable income now, this is backed up by any of my peers that I talk to. Government figures tell us inflation is around 2% despite overwhelming evidence (by just going to the shops) that it is 10% or more.

[Pops]

I also am feeling things are moving faster than I thought they would one or 2 years ago Smiley and I’m not one to trust my own intuition very often.

Physical oil supplies at much lower levels - regardless of the “Reasonsâ€

[Itch]

I've had that same feeling that gets worse everyday. It seems like there is at least one article per day that qualifies as "oh, shit" information. Yesterday it was the new Iranian oil exchange that is set to come up soon; today has yet to be seen. I wouldn't say that I'm depressed about it, but I do have those moments where I shake my head mutter and obscenity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e were investigating creating a small intentional community with some friends, but now it looks as if there won't be time to do the necessary organizing.

[Licho]

I'm still optimistic, even more than before
I'm tracking this subject, and general overshoot/overpopulation subjects since pre-web times, so it's not shocking/new for me. Predictions I'v read at earlier times were predicting various peaks much sooner, so it feels like extra extended time

I don't think that PO is something totally negative, I think that PO will bring great changes that will gradually improve life on planet and planetary ecology. It might take longer than my lifespan, but I'm very optimistic towards future. Some upcoming changes will be challenging some dangerous, many will be interesting and some will be certainly welcomed by me..

[Jack]

You're right to question your intuition...that being said, even after the recent dip in oil to $46.06 (West Texas Intermediate, Nov. 16th) we still have an increase of 38.8% over a year ago.

It's true that we're all getting somewhat more GDP per unit of oil than we used to - but increases of this magnitude will certainly have a broad detrimental effect. And, they suggest that Peak is getting closer. Much closer.

I agree with the other posts. Things are starting to look stormy, in the fairly near term.

[savethehumans]

I vote for pessimists! The optimists are sounding TOO happy, TOO shrill, and that "trust us" attitude makes me want to run 180 degrees in the other direction. A world that tells me that the economy is recovering while the worth of its currency is shrinking; tells me there are more jobs out there while there are fewer that pay enough to live on and many of the rest have been/are being outsourced; tells me there's enough fuel to keep our lifestyles up, while the prices are soaring, the explorations are curtailed, and the supplies are dwindling; a world that wants me to buy into all they say while NOT showing me the REAL price tag--these voices are not ones one is inclined to trust!

My sense that everything is about to tumble like the proverbial house of cards gets stronger every day. I will be talking to my brother, the executor of my late dad's estate, on Christmas Day. I'm inclined to ask for every penny of my share that he KNOWS I have coming to me (they are probably months from fully assessing the estate; but the life insurance money is already mine to take). Like many of you, there is much I want to do: learn barterable skills, form a sustainable community, find a place where we can ride out the crash and die-off. But I'm really afraid there's not going to be time for all that; yet I know I have to at least TRY. Any sensible suggestions (that could be enacted over the next few months) would be welcome....

[TrueKaiser]

i don't know. i do see the same saber rattling at iran that we did to iraq, so that isn't the best sign.

[Colorado-Valley]

I've got a sick feeling in my stomach because of a related matter.

I'm 50 years old, have a small farm and a solar house. I've been preparing for peak oil for a long time.

But I just realized last week that because I served in the Army some 30 years ago, I am technically a member of the Irregular Ready Reserve. This is a fancy name for people who served their time many years ago but who can be called into service in a national emergency.

It turns out they are now calling up 50-year-olds for Iraq in an effort to avoid imposing a draft, which would have bad political implications for the current administration.

My feeling is that Iraq is not only one of the world's great military and foreign policy disasters, but that it was also built upon lies, is a violation of international law, contains multiple violations of the Geneva Conventions and is a vast disaster to millions of innocent and patriotic Iraqis who are trying to oppose the occupation of their country.

For me to be forced to participate in such a horrible thing is beyond words.

[skiwi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Itch', 'I')'ve had that same feeling that gets worse everyday. It seems like there is at least one article per day that qualifies as "oh, shit" information. Yesterday it was the new Iranian oil exchange that is set to come up soon; today has yet to be seen..........

[Grimnir]

I don't believe in intuition as a psychic power, but certainly people have the ability to put pieces together behind the scenes and get a legitimate "bad feeling" about something. I've had one of those for a long time; it started before I'd ever heard about peak oil and hasn't gotten any better (I suspect a large part of it is due to my opposition to the Bush administration in general and Iraq in particular). For the past several years, whenever I've driven by Chicago and seen the skyline I've found myself envisioning it in ruins and thinking things like "well; even if this is as high as we go, we can still be pretty proud we made it this far". I realize that this sort of mindset makes me vulnerable to conspiracy theories, which is why I try to be real careful about how much of all this I let myself believe. Nevertheless, it seems that nearly everyone in the world right now is much more worried about the future than they were a couple years ago, and maybe we have good reason.

[bart]

[quote="Pops"]
... but lately I’ve become less interested in playing “Message Board Risk/Doomâ€

[BabyPeanut]

If you haven't seen it Michael Moore's first film Roger and Me is a microcosm of Peak Oil. In it the underlying source of captial is removed from the city of Flint, MI and there was a lot of capital around when it happens. The crazy ways in which the remaining money is wasted trying to save the city while it goes to ruins leaves you thinking the smartest person in the movie is the "pets or meat" woman who raises rabbits and breeds dogs in order to live.

I see the US falling apart while making dumb decisons about how to save itself just like in that movie.

[xcel]

Hi BabyPeanut:

___How is Flint, MI. doing today vs. 15 years ago when “Roger and Meâ€

[BabyPeanut]

Good question.

First answer:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Pets or Meat: The Return to Flint - 1992

Directed by
Michael Moore

Writing credits
Michael Moore

A 30-minute follow-up piece for Roger & Me, this was first shown when that film was broadcast as part of the PBS series P.O.V. Moore briefly re-examines the economic collapse of Flint and the changes that have taken place in the earlier movies' major figures, from Roger Smith down to the evicted tenants, as well as collateral material about the celebrity status of himself and the film.

[BabyPeanut]

Flint:



Chernobyl:



(see http://www.kiddofspeed.com/ for where the Chernobyl pics came from)

[pea-jay]

A millenia or two from now explorers from somewhere else unearth evidence of past great civilization and wonder-
"what went wrong?"

Are we the next Mayans?

[lowem]

A possible future Encyclopedia Galactica entry :

System : Sol
Planet : "Earth" / "Terra"
Planetary order : #3
Planetary civilization : None
Earlier civilizations : "Humanity", Failed Type 0+ ...

[smiley]

You forgot to add: mostly harmless