[gego]

Most of the time during the last 400 years, we have been in an economic expansion. On average, the standard of living has improved, even though there were shorter periods when things went counter to the trend. If you plotted this on a graph you would see a stairstep type pattern with higher highs and higher lows.

When this 400 year expansion began the end of the road was the early 21st century (although this destination was know at the time). Today the average standard of living in western industrial societies is better than that of 17th century kings. The journey has become easier and easier because of greater and more effective exploitation of resources.

When we hit peak oil, this long trend will reverse, and we will follow a road that leads to a new destination. For those taking this new road the journey will become more and more difficult. Once we reach the end of this road, sustainability or extinction, life will at least stabilize rather than on average getting more and more difficult.

We may argue about the destination and the timing of our arrival there, but I think the idea that we are entering a significant new phase in history is generally understood on these boards.

I doubt that most people are prepared for the journey, if that is even possible.

I had to dig up a small section of sewer line at my house, but it was such a short section that I did it with a shovel and pickaxe, rather than bother to get in a backhoe. As I was fighting with the roots and rocks, I kept thinking that this will be typical of a world without sufficient energy to even keep things adequately repaired. We will fall back to less adequate alternatives, and we will be under constant pressure from having less and less. It is no wonder that Richard Duncan thinks the electrical system will fail post peak.

[rogerhb]

Given that the destination is six foot under or up a chimney, I am more in favour of the journey.