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I'm taking this low oil price as an opportunity

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Oil price next week

Unread postby Cobra_Strike » Fri 21 Apr 2006, 02:31:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'G')uessing: I don't think the $70 barrier will be broken until this summer, when peak driving season once again coincides with hurricane season. But when it does break, it'll fly.

Wow. Okay... that was spectacularly wrong... :oops:
hehe...ya, but who is to say that is truely a bad thing? I find it funny that the media does not pick up on it more then they do...
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Re: Oil price next week

Unread postby AnniCat » Fri 21 Apr 2006, 14:26:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'G')uessing: I don't think the $70 barrier will be broken until this summer, when peak driving season once again coincides with hurricane season. But when it does break, it'll fly.

Wow. Okay... that was spectacularly wrong... :oops:


not entirely. it did fly past $70 ... [smilie=5badair.gif]
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I'm taking this low oil price as an opportunity

Unread postby Ayoob » Tue 05 Sep 2006, 01:29:48

to take a beautiful luxury vacation in Hawaii this winter. I wonder if I will ever have the chance again to walk over the frozen rivers of lava or to eat fresh pineapple, or to swim with the dolphins and watch the whales, or to see the inside of an active volcano or any of the other things I want to do and see.

We are at a lull in time. This is a great time to go and visit places that we may never have a chance to see again.

I would like to make contact with Jay Hanson when I go to Hawaii. Maybe he will agree to have coffee with me when I go.
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Evidence of oil price manipulation before the elections ?

Unread postby chris-h » Fri 13 Oct 2006, 15:53:49

http://321energy.com/editorials/willie/ ... 01406.html (scroll in the middle of the page.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ONTROL OF ENERGY & INDUSTRY RESPONSE
The "dynamic duo" JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are running rampant, making money like bandits, coming and going, in market sectors which rise or fall. Or are they "evil twins" instead? They have a partner in the USGovt and immunity from investigation, audit, and prosecution. What has this country come to? A laundry list of questionable market practices and government activities can be cited. Start with the GSax commodity index (GSCI) whose unleaded gasoline weight was reduced from 8.45% to 2.3% without warning or justification. Fully $100 billion is invested in indexed commodity funds tied to the GSCI, managed by fund managers, brokers, and individuals. They were forced to sell a lot of gasoline contracts to abide by enforced weightings.

Let's be real clear. It would be great if I could put my personal $30 thousand short position in place on a trade, then change an index weightings, then wink to the Dept of Defense on selling a scad of crude oil from inventory, then pull a string at EIA on a weekly story on reduced national energy demand, then sell the heck out of positions which my client hedge funds hold (knowing their important support lines), then to sit back and count my $100k profit a month later. Wow! Isn't it great that the USGovt has JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs as partners to protect our freedom and to ensure market vitality? This media debate on the realistic belief of one third of the public harboring suspicions of election engineering in the energy market is interesting. THEY OPENLY DISCUSS EVERY IMPORTANT FACTOR EXCEPT JPM AND GSAX!!!

The USGovt Dept of Energy spokesman has actually admitted that oil drawn from the Strategic Petro Reserve during the Hurricane Katrina is not to be replaced yet. Check section 161, item g2B of the law, with stipulates that a drawdown cannot persist "for more than 60 days with respect to each shortage." Since when does law interfere with the current Administration when on a mission?

Heck, it is election season just one month away! That is motive enough, isn't it? Gasoline is more domestically controlled for price, so criticism of any manipulation with election expedience as motive would be domestic, if at all. The energy complex is inter-related, with contracts for crude oil, heating oil, diesel, gasoline, and natural gas intertwined. GSax set off a chain reaction. Oh yes, the US Military is rumored to have sold a staggering amount of diesel fuel. Did they accumulate over 18 months only to discharge surplus prior to the election? Coordination between the USGovt and US Military is easy, with the dynamic duo in partnership. This is not idle speculation, but engrained collusion. The largest energy consumer in the world, as a single corporate or institutional entity, is the US Military. Their data is held secret, but when they enter a market, their activity can be detected, and is often the subject of rumor mills. Research has traditionally maintained the grapevine as 75% reliable. Toss in some reduced EIA energy demand forecasts, lower OPEC demand forecasts, and some games on firm OPEC output, and presto, the energy market declines further. Bear in mind that OPEC grossly exaggerates its oil reserves, struggles to maintain output levels, while the Alaskan slope has interrupted supply lines. Saudi oil production is down from 9.5 million bbl/day last year to 9.1 or 9.2 million bbl/day now, not publicly trumpeted by any means. They are under strain. As one paints the ultimate reality, the market action points to the current reality.

JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are having a field day (rather, two months) forcing hedge funds into liquidation on their heavily stressed energy positions. Amaranth is not the only fund in the middle of a death experience. Expert professionals inside the two adept firms are in competition with young hedge fund managers, some young and inexperienced. The Amaranth story is not isolated. The wealthy do not relish public displays of their investment failures anymore than their fund managers do. Motherrock of ABN Amro was the previous story. Of 9000 hedge funds managing $1300 billion, are we to witness only a handful of failures? Methinks not. Many typical spread trades are anchored with USTreasury Bonds, which must see buyback upon liquidation (the short cover). Thus we saw a strong USTBond rally until last week, the implied beneficiary. So the USGovt applauds the efforts by their twin knights of the Oval Office, JPM and GSax as they force exposed over-leveraged hedge fund managers. This pressure aids the bond rally, which aids the stock rally. Perhaps the current phase of the liquidation has ended. See the minor bond selloff this week.
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 15 Oct 2006, 21:54:04

If you voted yes, it means you have no idea how the price of crude oil is determined.

Can a farmer set the price of a commodity such as corn?

No.

The price of crude oil is set by movements (trades;buying selling) on the three major international petroleum exchanges, all of which have their own Web sites featuring information about oil prices. They are the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX, http://www.nymex.com), the International Petroleum Exchange in London (IPE, http://www.ipe.uk.com) and the Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX, http://www.simex.com.sg).

Oil futures make up a huge part of the oil markets, and oil is the world's most heavily traded commodity. Because of this, the price of oil is sensitive to how traders think the world will look one month, six months, or even years in the future.

There are lots of players in the oil business, they're all trying to make money. Everyone's trying to out-predict each other and arrive at an acceptable balance of potential profit and risk.

How do you bring the price of a stock or future down?

You dump it on the market.

How did the Bush folks force people to dump their oil futures and do it world-wide?

The price went down due to many factors:

1. The end of Katrina effects (almost)
2. The end of the Israeli/Lebanon conflict
3. A mild 2006 hurricane season
4. The end of the summer driving season
5. Simmering of the Iranian nuclear debacle
6. Profit taking

And if there is a manipulation factor, it is the big Gulf oil find re-trotted out from 2004.

Good news, even if it's old, affects the markets.
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby seahorse » Tue 24 Oct 2006, 20:05:10

I posted a link here Link to thread to an article by Matt Simmons, who maintained that oil prices were easily manipulated by a few speculators.
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby readmnweep » Wed 25 Oct 2006, 01:46:26

There are many theories to the rise and fall of oil/gas prices. We will see how prices move AFTER the elections. Perhaps our views of manipulation will then change (or maybe they won't!). Will find out in a couple of weeks and a few months later, what really happens. Until then, speculation of manipulation is just that!
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 25 Oct 2006, 09:38:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('readmnweep', 'T')here are many theories to the rise and fall of oil/gas prices. We will see how prices move AFTER the elections. Perhaps our views of manipulation will then change (or maybe they won't!). Will find out in a couple of weeks and a few months later, what really happens. Until then, speculation of manipulation is just that!


If the price rises post-election, it in no way adds weight to the claim that the price is being manipulated for it.

It reflects fear and greed, which drives the market.

Does the election outcome affect investments?

Sure it does.

Have some possibly moved to the sidelines (sold or shorted) in their positions awaiting the outcome?

Sure.

Is that market manipulation to set price?

No.

It is wise investment.
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 25 Oct 2006, 10:31:35

MonteQuest said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f the price rises post-election, it in no way adds weight to the claim that the price is being manipulated for it.


If the democrats take control of one or both houses, with the expectation that they will increase taxes on the rich, taxes on oil companies, increase capital gains and support more environmental legislation to overcome the massacre of Shub’s administration; then oil prices go up a lot - I think their would be a very good argument, for the markets having been manipulated.
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby grabby » Wed 25 Oct 2006, 17:05:32

Bidding on oil has nothing to do with price if they don't want it to.
The big guys know if oil don't get cheap they are looking at a democratic congress and lots of fines, investigations and retribution.

You own a super large oil company? you'll cut your price.

Believe me, Chavez can do it. right?

Right?

gasoline at the pump is 22 cents a gallon in venezuella, nad the world oil price is not 10 dollars a barrel how can he do it

he just can.

so can the USA and you know it.

just before election, Mr bigshot says OK were selling unleaded for 2 bucks a gallon (who cares what it cost them)

It actually costs them 50 cents a gallon cause they pump it themselves from the US they have been making bookoo profits.

yes they can drop the price to under a dollar a gallon if they wish any time they want.
tomorrow.
they just sell to the stations at 80 cents a gallon.

but they dont need to go that low they are watching the polls.
obviously.
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby grabby » Wed 25 Oct 2006, 17:21:51

what is really interesting is these NEWSPAPER and NEWS reports about gas getting cheaper in areas where the race is very close (New Hampshire, ohio) While here in Washington gas was 2.80-3.00 and didnt even budge when other places dropped as low as 2.30.

wahshingtin is and always will be democratic, we have seattle.
and lawyers everywhere.
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 25 Oct 2006, 21:40:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]MonteQuest said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f the price rises post-election, it in no way adds weight to the claim that the price is being manipulated for it.


If the democrats take control of one or both houses, with the expectation that they will increase taxes on the rich, taxes on oil companies, increase capital gains and support more environmental legislation to overcome the massacre of Shub’s administration; then oil prices go up a lot - I think their would be a very good argument, for the markets having been manipulated.


Again, how (what mechanism of buying/selling), and ....

Who is forcing people to oversell the market?
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby joewp » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 01:06:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Again, how (what mechanism of buying/selling), and ....


You need to view the Commitment of Traders reports to see how the non-commercials (the hedge finds, brokerages and commodity funds, the large speculators) have sold their longs and shorted over 100,000 contracts since the first week of August to see how. Off the top of my head, their long positions went from 202,000 to 150,000 and their shorts went from 99,000 to 150,000. (the actual numbers I put in another thread on this issue)

While the commercials are always buying and selling as they need, the producers will sell a lot more when the non-commercials are net long (price going up) and buy more when the non-commercials are net short(the price is going down).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Who is forcing people to oversell the market?


They don't need someone to force them. Would you need someone to tell you that lower gas prices are good for retaining a Republican Congress that will keep your preferential tax treatment? They do it out of their own best financial interests.

But after today, it appears that supply and demand are finally exerting their influence, and the commercials (who are 60% of the market) are buying because of lower inventories in crude and all the products. The non-commercials had to buy today to cover some of their shorts.

This still doesn't negate market manipulation, since you, me, the others on PO.com and a few thousand oil traders, producers and consumers are the only ones who watch these prices closely. Any rise in wholesale gas isn't going through to the pumps until well after the election, so the die is already cast as far as that goes.
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 01:19:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', ' ')They don't need someone to force them. Would you need someone to tell you that lower gas prices are good for retaining a Republican Congress that will keep your preferential tax treatment? They do it out of their own best financial interests.



I rest my case. Sound investment is not market manipulation.

Do you also posit that all these investors/traders are Republicans?

Why aren't the Democratic investor/traders running up the price to push Bush and his neocons cronies out?
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby joewp » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 01:53:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', ' ')They don't need someone to force them. Would you need someone to tell you that lower gas prices are good for retaining a Republican Congress that will keep your preferential tax treatment? They do it out of their own best financial interests.



I rest my case. Sound investment is not market manipulation.

Do you also posit that all these investors/traders are Republicans?

Why aren't the Democratic investor/traders running up the price to push Bush and his neocons cronies out?


I said in another thread, money knows no party. There's no "republican" or "democratic" investors at this level, only "winners" and "losers". Case in point: There are many coporations and wealthy individuals that donate nearly equal amount to both parties so they can have influence no matter who wins, especially when there's no overriding issue that would tend to favor one party over the other (like the preferential investment tax treatment issue here).

Did the points you make have influence on the price coming down somewhat? Yes. But the extreme reduction in price was more a factor of the large speculators selling to get prices to a reasonable level before the election. Especially considering that no matter what the news was these past 6-8 weeks, the price continued down.
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 09:43:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', ' ')Did the points you make have influence on the price coming down somewhat? Yes. But the extreme reduction in price was more a factor of the large speculators selling to get prices to a reasonable level before the election. Especially considering that no matter what the news was these past 6-8 weeks, the price continued down.


So, you are saying that all investors/speculators want a republican Congress and Senate no matter what?

And this goes for all investors/speculators world-wide on three different oil exchanges?

Quite the conspiracy. :roll:

The price has continued down for fundamental reasons.

Playing a Rebound in the Oil Sector

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il and oil stocks proved to be great investments from around mid-2003 through to July of this year, but cycles change and over the past three months the oil sector has not been a good place to be invested. In fact, oil and oil stocks began to lose relative strength last year in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. That was when oil peaked relative to gold and when oil stocks peaked relative to gold stocks and airline stocks (we sometimes refer to the airline sector as the anti-oil sector due to the tendency of airline stocks to trend inversely to the oil price).

As things currently stand there's plenty of fundamental and technical evidence that oil commenced a cyclical bear market (a 6-24 month downturn/consolidation within the context of a long-term bull market) in July of this year.

Unlike the oil price, which has trended lower in almost a straight line over the past couple of months in response to a short-term supply glut....


Link
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby joewp » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 13:02:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
So, you are saying that all investors/speculators want a republican Congress and Senate no matter what?


No, just the large speculators like Goldman Sachs, Merril Lynch, hedge funds commodity funds, et al. Small investors follow the big boys. Half the commercial hedgers like the price lower(refiners), and half like the prices higher(producers).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')And this goes for all investors/speculators world-wide on three different oil exchanges?

Quite the conspiracy. :roll:


The other exchanges follow the price of NYMEX crude through the process of arbitrage, wherein if NYMEX crude rises in price, people immediately buy WTI and push its price up and vice-versa. And anybody can trade WTI on IPE, since it's electronic, so the large speculators are there, too.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The price has continued down for fundamental reasons.


Which I don't see. Production remains fairly static and demand keeps increasing around the world. China's imports increased (IIRC) 9% year-over-year in September and US demand is increasing at 2-4%. If there's such a glut of oil, why did Saudi Arabia have to release oil from storage in the Carribbean when the Alaska pipeline went down to stabilize the price? Why was Europe exporting mucho gasoline to the US all summer? If this winter is seasonable in the Northeast US, we'll see how much of a glut there is. Drawing down distillates in late October isn't a good sign for the bears.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EIA Weekly report', 'D')istillate fuel inventories declined by 1.4 million barrels,


Ah well, we'll see what happens.
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby Niagara » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 13:33:49

MonteQuest, with all due respect I have to disagree with some of your comments.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'C')an a farmer set the price of a commodity such as corn?

No.

We all agree that no one can set the price of a commdity. It's a free market.

The appropriate question to ask is "Can a farmer influence the price of corn?"

Absolutely. However one single farmer's affect would be negligible.

"Can a large cartel of corn farmers influence the price of corn?
You better believe it.


Anyway, I voted 'yes' to the price manipulation. Means, motive and opportunity. 8)
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby joewp » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 14:54:40

So today's market action dropped the price of crude by about half of yesterday's gain, after a very bullish storage report in which crude and all the products' inventories dropped unexpectedly, including distillates, ahead of winter heating season. Very odd, isn't it?

No manipulation? Puh-lease. :P
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Re: Is this evidence of oil price manipulation bef election

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 15:31:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'V')ery odd, isn't it?


apparently it was not discovered until late yesterday that one of the ports was closed for a period of time last week. Some of the analysts believe this is what was responsible for the drop in inventories along with the refinery maintenance schedule.

Day to day oil prices are based on emotion in the trading pits which is in turn based on scant data and rumours.
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