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avoiding chaos

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Unread postby Bytesmiths » Sun 21 Nov 2004, 04:22:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'T')he SEC should enact a regulation whereby the compensation scale in any publicly-traded corporation is limited to a maximum of 50 to 1.
I may agree with your premise, but not with your solution.

First, I don't believe it could happen. But let's assume it could: what would keep these captains of greed from finding some other avenue to fulfill their moneylust? Surely in a free society you cannot simply put a cap on someone's income.

Oh wait... you can. It's called "progressive taxation." Much of Europe has it. The US <b>used</b> to have it. In the 60's, the top bracket was 50%. Now we have highly regressive payroll taxes (Social Security) that is basically a tax on the poor to fund war. Everyone's goal is to make enough to stop paying payroll tax on your marginal earnings.

So let's be creative about limiting the compensation spread, rather than simply wielding the heavy hand of government. Get rid of the payroll tax, and fund public retirement out of the common take like all other industrialized nations. Return progressive taxation, so the rewards for increasing greed are decreasing reward. Give a hunk of that greed-won booty to the folks at the bottom.

The Mondragon Community in northern Spain experimented with salary caps, only more extreme. They said that the highest paid individual could not be paid more than <b>seven</b> times the lowest paid. The problem was that they couldn't hold on to professionals. Doctors and engineers were leaving in droves. They eventually raised the limit to 12:1, which stopped the bleeding somewhat, but didn't really address the problem: decrees don't work. They eventually dropped salary caps for voluntary compliance with suggested salary spreads. People find ways around and end up resenting the government. It needs to be more subtle than a decree!
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Unread postby Guest » Sun 21 Nov 2004, 05:09:49

Its simple

Once the economy contracts significantly capitalism won't work anymore
It will be like the depression but ten times worse

If its not this bad.. then maybe a Roosevelt style economy will scrape by, but all the people I see here think it will be much worse

Secondly the depression was temporary - peak oil will force the world into conservation mode for the long term. There will be no more consumptionist capitalism

Some of the theories of Marx then begin to look a little more attractive
His great failing was in having a powerful state that HAD to be obeyed
He wasn't a democrat

Democracy is the best thing about the western systems
It seems to be that Bush is heading down the road of changing this ... and the worst combination would be CHINA!. A capitalist dictatorship

Capitalism as-we-know-it is dead

I call it greedy, but all agree it works by continual GROWTH and EXPANSION so an ever increasing population will always have a higher standard of living

A more efficient workforce drives prices down, meaning more things will be produced and consumed with fewer workers

All this relies on ONE thing. Never ending raw materials and energy
Now at least one of those will be taken away

So we have TOO many workers
Too much production capacity and too many useless products
What alternative is there but feed and house them?
Give them jobs that don't contribute much to the economy
Communist countries used to pay people to sweep the streets

The US wastes as much energy as the USSR ever did
It just wastes it more efficiently!

I don' mean not communism OR capitalism
Something different

Perhaps democratic sustainability... ?!?

The alternative is the rich build a walled city and leave the poor majority to exit planet earth somehow, till theres few enough people to support capitalism again
Maybe that walled city is 'America'

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Unread postby Bytesmiths » Sun 21 Nov 2004, 14:14:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', 'D')emocracy is the best thing about the western systems
It seems to be that Bush is heading down the road of changing this ...
I'm despairing of democracy. It has a couple problems:
    * uninformed populace, and
    * influence of money.

There are a few things that give America a thin veneer of democracy to the rest of the world, while disguising a fairly totalitarian corporate dictatorship beneath.

For example, an uninformed, "infotainment-oriented" populace is fed mis-information at an overpowering rate. Those who bother to understand the issues in some detail are a tiny minority among those whose version of "news" is sound bites in between the latest episodes of Survivor.

How many times did Bush lackeys get in front of the cameras and hammer the false message: "Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. Saddam was working with terrorists," even months after studies and commissions found no evidence.

But surely, we're free to express our opinions here -- that makes it a free country, no? After all, the jack-booted thugs haven't shut us down (yet)!

Yea, who's listening. A few hundred high-tech people, vs a few <b>million</b> who get the corporate-annointed Word on the evening news. "Experts agree: the public was never in any danger," when the nuke plant melts or the chemical munitions depot leaks, "Condition Red: terrorists are about to strike," when people start to get distracted enough to seek out their own information.

Is it any wonder the US suffers from some nation-wide version of bi-polar disorder? Maniacally optimistic in one moment, fearful and depressed the next. That's how the moneyed interests want us: mania makes us consume; fear makes us behave.

And for those who neither consume nor behave? Well, the US has a greater percentage of people imprisoned than any industrialized country -- more even than that bastion of freedom, China, more even than our mortal enemy, Cuba.

Keep it up, folks -- there's a cell waiting for you, too! And if you haven't really committed a crime, it may be a padded cell, or it may be a place where the US courts can't help you, like Guantanamo.
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Unread postby Chicagoan » Sun 21 Nov 2004, 17:39:36

I think the best post-peak government in the United States would be loose federation, like it was originally. To achieve that we first should simplify the byzantine governmental beauracracy and find all instances of waste. Welfare, including the corporate variety, has to go, as should pork barral projects. Most of the governing should be left to the states or local communities. This would bring the government closer to the people and should relieve the tax burden.

Unfortunately that is wishful thinking.
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Unread postby Bytesmiths » Sun 21 Nov 2004, 17:45:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chicagoan', 'I') think the best post-peak government in the United States would be loose federation, like it was originally... Most of the governing should be left to the states or local communities.
While we're doing "wishful thinking," how about re-defining states and localities based on bioregions? Just what the heck do people in most rectangular states have in common, anyway?
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Unread postby goldfishbowl42 » Mon 22 Nov 2004, 15:56:13

I guess the whole issue is. Do you want to live, and if you do, do think think we should try to help everyone live.

If you want to leave it up to market forces then 4 billion or more will die. The Free Market is a system based stongly around the the simple rules of evolution. Hence why we humans at our current primitive social stage cannot lift ourselves from the basic system of survival of the fitest that is capitalism. If you argue freedom or market forces will solve this, you are correct. It will kill enough of the population for the planet to settle back into a balanced equalibrium that can continue without oil to give us all the food needed for 6 billion. Needless to say with such a huge drop in population we would lose a lot of our technological knowledge in all the chaos that ensues and we would truely be back to at least the dark ages.

If you want to try and hold on to some of this technological gift that oil has given us then we need to quickly implement some form of controlling social system rather than the free market system. Call it Fascism or Communism, they only differ in their belief about money when it comes to the practical implementation. But you need some way of forcing people to do much more basic and manual work than they were brought up to believe they would be doing. they will need to be forced to do this to feed themselves and to feed as many as physically possible.

Your new social system would have to quickly organise people into farming, mass transit and a huge renewable energy push. After a time the new economy would evolve and the dust would begin to settle and some of the more complex section may hopefully make it through the mess. We will hopefully still have some engineers and some builders and some factories making certain useful non-plastic things.

Ideally communism is very different so do not think I am making the mistake of using marx's dreams here, I am talking about a much more forces social system for an interim period, It would just happen to resemble examples we have seen before on this planet of attemps at communism or certain fascist control systems.


Ideally, eventually we will end up with a stable population on this planet and a knowledge based ecconomy rather than a production and possesion based one.

If we fall to far we might never learn the lesson of controlling natures inevitable growth and collapse. We might not make it above stupid creatures.
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Unread postby Pix » Mon 22 Nov 2004, 17:55:21

If you live in a goldfish bowl you may not have noticed the tradgedy that controlled economies are. Perhaps you misunderstand free markets since they were long ago subverted by government control (in the US, UK and almost everywhere else) to the benefit of the minority at the expense of the majority. Controlled economies do not produce what the majority want, but rather produce what the rulers and their friends want. This is abundantly clear in countries like Cuba and the former USSR.

To suggest that you or some government knows what is best for me and that you can deliver that effectiently is the height of arrogance on your part.

If we are entering a period of economic destruction based on less available energy, then does it make sense to pick the most efficient (freedom) or most inefficient (communism, i.e. slavery) economic system.

The fundamental problem is that current population levels only exist because we are eating energy. When energy declines there will be less food. There must be a balance between food and population so it is logical to conclude that population must be reduced. To suggest that communism is the way to go during this upheaval is to increase the number of deaths and maximize the human suffering.
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Unread postby Bytesmiths » Mon 22 Nov 2004, 19:07:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('goldfishbowl42', 'T')he Free Market is a system based stongly around the the simple rules of evolution. Hence why we humans at our current primitive social stage cannot lift ourselves from the basic system of survival of the fitest that is capitalism.
Please note that "survival of the fittest" does not necessarily go hand-in-hand with competition, which is a fundamental precept of capitalism.

As I pointed out in another thread, cooperating species have evolved via "natural selection," the proper term-of-art for the populist "survival of the fittest."

I believe it was Sir Julian Huxley (founder of World Wildlife Fund), who first hypothesized that the number of species is related to the area of habitation, which leads to the syllogism that if there are no isolated populations, evolution ceases. This theory has been tested many times, and some twenty years later is the near-consensus among evolutionary theorists.

What does this have to do with Peak Oil? For one thing, it means things may either be not as bleak as it seems, or things may be much bleaker than it seems! We are truly in between Lorenz points, on the cusp of "punctuated equilibrium."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('goldfishbowl42', 'I')f you want to try and hold on to some of this technological gift that oil has given us then we need to quickly implement some form of controlling social system rather than the free market system.
So far, so good, although I think free markets work best when they are truly free, unlike current markets, which are heavily influenced by corporations and governments. However:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('goldfishbowl42', 'C')all it Fascism or Communism, they only differ in their belief about money when it comes to the practical implementation.
I could not disagree more! Fascism is defined in the dictionary as oppressive and dictatorial. However, Mussolini himself said
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Benito Mussolini', 'F')ascism should more properly be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power.
Contrast this with communism, the definition of which includes mention of "higher social order" and "common ownership of resources."

(Common ownership is not without its problems, which I believe are adequately addressed through consensus government.)

Thus the two, which "goldfishbowl42" claims only differ in implementation, have fundamentally differing economic models. In fact, I would submit that the two systems are <b>only</b> similar so far in their implementations -- authoritarian dictatorships!

Consider for a moment a third possibility: consensus communism. Common ownership governed by complete agreement among members. This is impossible to achieve except at the smallest levels -- imagine getting every US voter to agree on ANYTHING, for example! Yet consensus communes exist and function nicely -- there are hundreds of examples world-wide.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('goldfishbowl42', 'y')ou need some way of forcing people to do much more basic and manual work than they were brought up to believe they would be doing.
Ugh. "Forcing people" to do stuff has such a great track record in history. Thus the beauty of consensus.

When you force someone to do something, even if it is very much apparent it is in the individual's own best interest, you build resentment. But when one person's concerns amount to a veto, you empower that individual to choose to "do the right thing" for the benefit of the community. When consensus is achieved, people have "bought in" and have ownership of the decision, and don't burn with resentment.

Of course, people being what they are, you will occasionally have persistent trouble-makers in consensus situations. Some groups implement "consensus minus one" to guard against that, others reserve C-1 for the specific situation of ousting a trouble-maker. If the coming dark time is as bad as many predict, banishment carries ominous implications -- it may well be a death sentence. Thus, the "carrot" of enlightened self-interest contributing to the whole, combines with the "stick" of expulsion, to help achieve consensus.

So the real question is, "How will this scale? Isn't this a throw-back to feudal city-states and tribal warfare?"

I think history has shown that authoritarian communism on a grand, top-down style doesn't work in most cases, and the current situation may be the proof that democratic capitalism works no better. But perhaps on a bottom-up basis, it could work. Individual communes ultimately in charge, making decision by some form of consensus, bio-regional groups of communes, with less power, but with influence on each other regarding regional issues, also operating on consensus -- this could be the end of nationalism.

I think, indeed, I hope, the coming crisis is the end of democracy as we've come to know it. Tyranny by a majority is still tyranny. If one believes that what we have is simply a point on the endless road of enlightenment, it seems silly to cling desperately to democracy simply because it is the only thing we've known, and because our Founding Fathers decreed it under vastly different conditions than those we now face.
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Unread postby gg3 » Tue 23 Nov 2004, 10:32:54

"Survival of the fittest" is a fallacy of the "post hoc, ergo propter hoc" type (after the fact, therefore because of the fact). Today animals with long legs survive because they can out-run their predators; tomorrow, animals with long arms, because they can out-climb; it all seems so simple and sensible until you get to the fact that large-scale changes in habitat and environment are not ordered, and therefore have an effect that, superimposed over time, is basically random.

In other words, a more accurate rendition would be "survival of the luckiest." And, as anyone of skeptical mindset here knows, "luck" is an unscientific concept that exists purely out of the human emotional need to personalize the impact of random events.

By the way, "fittEST" is an example of the "-ER" fallacy taken to its logical extreme: big, biggER, biggEST; fit, fittER, fittEST, etc. I've covered the topic of the "-ER" fallacy sufficiently elsewhere that it's not useful to repeat here.

In any case, Social Darwinism is neither social nor Darwinian; it is a post-hoc cover story attempting to justify the actions of whoever ends up holding power; it has neither logical consistency nor uniform moral principle.


Re. "consensus." By the way, speaking as someone who has been intimately familiar with it, both in theory and in practice.

The factor that dooms consensus processes above a threshold size limit is the unalterable fact of combinatorial math (this works the same way for the distribution of keys in symmetric-key encryption systems). The number of possible interactions increases combinatorially with respect to the number of participants.

For three participants there are three potential channels of interaction, for four participants there are six channels, for five participants there are ten channels, for six participants there are fifteen, etc. Each new participant adds an interaction with each other participant.

As the number of participants grows, also grows the lag-time for communications to propagate through the network. This is a practical effect of the bandwidth limitations of speaking and listening, writing and reading, so it is not inherent in the math, "merely" inherent in the empirical facts.

The practical result is, consensus systems bog down rapidly. There is no way around this. It is also a problem, though less so, with any direct democracy where there is real participation rather than only voting upon limited ranges of proposals. And this, folks, is why we are, strictly speaking, a *republic.* That is to say, a representative democracy. With all of its faults, true, but none the less.


I'm also intimately familiar with the Mondragon Cooperative Corporation (MCC). In fact at the outset, the income spread was limited to 3:1 from top to bottom; and then amended to 4:1; and then it increased from there. But keep in mind that 12:1 and 20:1 are a far cry from the bloated 400:1 or 1000:1 spread that characterizes the US economy in the era of industrial emasculation and the ascendance of the Mickey Mouse "amuse ourselves to death" economy.

Some years ago -heck, a decade ago if memory serves- I developed an adaptation of the Mondragon system for USA conditions. In essence it was something that, in present-day terms, would be called a micro-enterprise incubator. There were apparently a number of attempts to adapt Mondragon to USA conditions, but mine got rave reviews and was considered by many to be the best and most likely to succeed.

The great promise of the Mondragon system is that it combines the very best of both free enterprise and representative democracy, in a practical system that also has the side-effect of inherently encouraging sustainability (local employee-owners of industrial enterprises do not willingly foul their own nests).

It should also be kept in mind that one of the key foundation points of Mondragon was the Christian social doctrine: of the dignity and worth of each person, and the equality of all persons in God's creation. (Here is a form of Christian social & political activism that is long overdue for a return.)
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Consensus as a future model

Unread postby Bytesmiths » Tue 23 Nov 2004, 13:49:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'T')he factor that dooms consensus processes above a threshold size limit is the unalterable fact of combinatorial math...
I agree. I was not proposing it for more than (for example) the size of a small apartment building. Groups committed to the process can make consensus work with upward of a hundred or so people, but ideally, more like 20-30 tops. Above that, it bogs down.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'T')here is no way around this... this, folks, is why we are, strictly speaking, a *republic.* That is to say, a representative democracy.
Perhaps you missed it, but what I was proposing was a hybrid, with consensus at the bottom for as large a group as it could manage, and representational consensus above in a hierarchy.

It's really important to push decision-making and governance to the appropriate level, which was my main argument against bloated, centrally-planned economies that were being proposed. With a hierarchy of consensus, the regional group of tribes doesn't have to concern itself with what specific crop to plant, nor does each individual tribe have to concern itself with how a regional resource is managed -- say, a shared watercourse.

Contrast this with a meddlesome US federal government, which at this moment is busy worrying about how terminally ill Oregonians conduct themselves, or whether they should be allowed to use a certain herb with proven medical use.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'I')t should also be kept in mind that one of the key foundation points of Mondragon was the Christian social doctrine...
Ugh. Keep god out of it, please. As soon as you claim you're doing something because god commanded it, you can basically do anything god "tells" you to do.

The problems is that god is not accountable! If one person kills another, you can pretty much decide the case on its merits. But if a bunch of people go kill a bunch of other people, they always claim that god had something to do with it, all the while the ones getting killed are praying for <b>their own</b> victory.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Adolph Hitler', 'I') believe that I am acting in accordance with the will of the Almighty Creator.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('George W. Bush', 'G')od told me to strike at Al Qaeda and I struck them. And then he instructed me to strike at Saddam, which I did. With the might of God on our side we will triumph.What's the difference? Historically speaking, god has been pretty inconsistent.

We can sit back in our armchair and say, "Hitler was a sadistic beast, Bush is not" (or vice-versa), but now we're second-guessing god. And if we're going to decide who actually speaks in god's name and who doesn't, why even involve the poor old deity at all? <b>Let's give god a break and take responsibility for our own actions for a change!</b>

I imagine God is weary and thoroughly disgusted at all that has been said and done in Her name.
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Unread postby Guest » Thu 25 Nov 2004, 06:47:59

goldfish you are essentially right
Its NOT arrogant to talk about government's knowing best

Mr Capitalist does your government enforce capitalism on people, does it tell everyone its THE system?
Yes of course they do

And they let their big business cronies have power and become a unelected dictatorship


>If you live in a goldfish bowl you may not have noticed the tradgedy that controlled economies are.

Don't you understand peak oil?
We will be forced to control our economies - when we can't continually expand we will have to conserve resoures and ... gasp... share

>
Perhaps you misunderstand free markets since they were long ago subverted by government control (in the US, UK and almost everywhere else) to the benefit of the minority at the expense of the majority.

I believe in free markets in a sense
I truly do, but its like this:

Your on an island with lots of food, everyone just eats what they want
Then there is a drought and hardly any food is left
Now, you must ration and it must be controlled centrally

BUT, it MUST be democratic
A dictatorship is evil regardless of the economic system
Look at China - capitalist dictatorship
Look at USSR - communist dictatorship
Look at US - capitalism democracy
What we need - communist democracy - nearest we have, look at Europe

>Controlled economies do not produce what the majority want, but rather produce what the rulers and their friends want. This is abundantly clear in countries like Cuba and the former USSR

Captialist economies produce what we want because we are democratic
But look at the politics, the richer classes benefit, the poor lose out

Its state control, give the people good things and we control them

Yes, we want good things but we don't want to be controlled, and we would rather live in a free society with less good things than capitalist fascism

Strong words... but exactly who got us into this mess?
Who uses most of the oil, who is screwing up the environment?

Non-democratic capitalists thats who
Look at Bush pulling out of Kyoto, his policy of grabbing oil
He's the same as China and Russia
Only Europe has any sense, and they are a socialist democracy

Let me ask one thing
If politicians of the right wing, who created an energy sucking global economy that is now going to wreck the world helped create this mess
Why to God should we trust them to get us out of it?

They have FAILED. Time for a change, we'll keep whats good, keep the mobile phones and the internet, change whats bad, and protect democracy with our lives

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