[Graeme]

Confronting Today's Oil Crisis in the U.S.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n conclusion, the action we must take NOW to relieve our dependence on foreign oil over the next two decades is threefold: First, we need to increase our domestic oil production from the current level of 7.5 million barrels/day to about 10 million barrels/day. This may mean more offshore drilling, possibly some discrete drilling on public lands, and, if it can become economical and environmentally acceptable, production of oil via coal liquefaction and/or extraction from oil shale.

Secondly, we need to produce more and more biofuels, hopefully as much as a NET 4 million barrels/day. This assumes that a practical method of producing ethanol from cellulosic feedstock will be developed within the next five years and that it will be the predominant method of producing ethanol over the following ten years. It also assumes that there will be a major increase in biodiesel production. These measures will not only provide alternative fuels to relieve much of our gasoline and diesel fuel needs but it also will create thousands of new domestic jobs and greatly improve our balance of trade.

Thirdly, and most importantly, we need to drastically reduce our oil consumption by some 7 million barrels/day. This means an upping of CAFE standards by government edict, a mass manufacture and sale of highly fuel-efficient vehicles, and the subsequent changing some of our life style habits. We can no longer lavish ourselves with large gas guzzling vehicles. We need to replace them with fuel efficient cars and trucks such as hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles, and we must learn to economize on our travel in every way we can (car pools, fewer road trips, shorter commutes, greater use of public transportation). In fact, there is a movement afoot encouraging local governments to pass new zoning laws and create incentives for better urban planning of all new real estate developments to ensure less travel between home, stores and places of employment.

[grabby]

My dad used to make the guys dig ditches while waiting for the delivery trucks to arrive.
He would later have the other crew fill in the ditches.
Keep them busy.

[Revi]

It would be great if this was an official government document, but I believe it came from some people who can actually think. Nobody is going to do anything in response to it. I think that in five years we will see not doing anything as a huge lost opportunity. So sad. I was reading the comments, and I love the idea of running a vehicle on solar electricity. Why not?

[coyote]

Sounds good, but I might change a few things and say it this way, instead:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n conclusion, the action we must take NOW to relieve our dependence on foreign oil over the next two decades is threefold: First, we need to recognize and come to terms with the fact that we will almost certainly never be able to increase our domestic oil production from the current level of 7.5 million barrels/day. Offshore drilling, while not a wonderful idea, can probably help to slow our decline somewhat. Energy from oil shale is a pipe dream, and in view of global warming increased coal production should be avoided like the plague.

Secondly, we need to conduct several independent, serious, peer reviewed studies to find out, once and for all, whether ethanol and biofuels are scalable. The few studies that have been done to date are mostly conflicting, and it's high-noon time we found out for sure.

Thirdly, and most importantly, we need to drastically reduce our oil consumption by some 14 million barrels/day. And be prepared to reduce it further in the future.

[Revi]

I like it Coyote. That's the actual truth. We have to live within our budget. It hurts, but the truth would be a step in the right direction. Why not scale back to living on 6 million barrels per day? It would be a lot less painful than going from 21 million barrels to nothing, or cutting all the forests and losing our soil fertility to make cellulosic ethanol. That's a quick ticket to Easter Island.

[AirlinePilot]

Nice edit Coyote. I think we all know the real problem with it though. If the government/economy were to launch those ideas today and actually carry them out, it would mean an almost immediate global depression. Your talking about the total transformation of how we do things in the US.

We just aren't going to go there. The time for rational action in a methodical fashion has come and gone. We are at least a decade late, possibly more. We don't have the time to allow the economies on a global scale to cope with where we should be at this point along the production curve. Technology is behind the eightball when it comes to batteries, ethanol/biofuels, fuel cells, solar, wind, you name it. We haven't spent the time, the money, nor the brain power to bridge the huge chasm looming before us.

I think we will start to see the cracks in the edges very soon if we haven't already. Everyone who has been here for any length of time can see it clearly. The evidence that some sort of unraveling has begun is all around us. Once I became aware of PO I thought for a while that we had a chance. Now I don't really believe we will do more than some panic driven, spasmodic mitigation before the bottom falls out from under us.

Human nature sucks sometimes.

[evilgenius]

Right on, Coyote. I say go ahead and offer the Conservatives ANWAR only offer it with the string of the highest reachable cafe standards mandatory by 2008. Let's start at 32 mpg and by 2010 go to 38mpg. Tell the Conservatives they can drill off-shore of Florida only in exchange for taxing the f**k out of those who still buy SUV's or trucks unless they can prove some kind of absolute business necessity or unless they go hybrid with their choice. Up the gas tax by a nickle a gallon at non-commercial pumps for lots of more than twelve gallons at a time. All of the pumps are computerized. It can be done.

[Petrodollar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think we all know the real problem with it though. If the government/economy were to launch those ideas today and actually carry them out, it would mean an almost immediate global depression. Your talking about the total transformation of how we do things in the US.

[RdSnt]

Living within your energy budget is an easy one. Reduce your population by 2/3 and you won't have to change a thing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') like it Coyote. That's the actual truth. We have to live within our budget. It hurts, but the truth would be a step in the right direction. Why not scale back to living on 6 million barrels per day? It would be a lot less painful than going from 21 million barrels to nothing, or cutting all the forests and losing our soil fertility to make cellulosic ethanol. That's a quick ticket to Easter Island.

[shortonoil]

.

Petrodollar said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, and what is the alternative to depression if we fall to pursue the policies advocated on this thread? Well, Richard Heinberg suggests that it could be global resource warfare amongst the nuclear-armed industrialized nations, which he calls the "Last One Standing" scenario. Here's a quote from his book: