[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ATURAL RUBBER PRICES starting in Q1, 2005, ending in Q2, 2006:
Europe, TSR20 €/tonne 976 1056 1311 1446 1666 1812
SICOM, RSS3, S$/tonne 2057 2292 2809 2841 3283 3886
New York, TSR20, US$/tonne 1354 1381 1625 1783 2036 2291
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[pup55]

Actually, there are a lot of parallels between the PO situation and the NR situation.

Terrible pricing regime in the 90's--people did not invest in new capacity...China demand quadrupled in about 3 years in 2002-2005

Investment economics to replace capacity are marginal even now, due to competition from palm oil....

Seven year time lag between the time you make the investment and the time the rubber starts to flow...

SRI Consulting

Malaysian exports by country

NR price

95% of this stuff grows in Asia, a lot of it comes from muslim areas. (Indonesia, Malaysia) or screwed up Africa nations (Liberia)

How to cash in:

Guthrie

I don't know how you would find ADR's for this but these guys run both palm oil and NR plantations.

GT five year chart

CTB five year chart

This would take some nerve, but a short sell on either of these stocks might be in order. You have the worst of all worlds: Skyrocketing raw material prices, major customers at or near Chapter 11, legacy pension and medical costs equally severe if not more so than the auto companies, and inept management. Both are pretty well beaten down, though, so maybe not much downside left.

If you have a big barn somewhere, you could buy some NR and store it. The shelf life (as long as it is kept dry) can be several years as long as you keep it out of the sun. Buy a container load now, and wait. Gotta pay commissions and shipping, and be patient, but in a couple of years you stand to make some money.

Alternative: Buy a far out futures contract, and wait. I think futures are still traded in one of the NY exchanges.

Note: This is not to be construed as investment advice. Never take investment advice from anyone who has a job. Do not believe everything you see on the Internet.