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collapse potential if nothing is done

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
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Re: collapse provable

Unread postby basil_hayden » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 12:25:55

9) nuke the cow with the forward mounted RPG. Drive through the guts.
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Re: collapse provable

Unread postby Falconoffury » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 12:46:19

If one is .7 seconds from crashing at high speed on a motorcycle, one should focus on landing properly, not avoiding the crash.
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Re: collapse provable

Unread postby BlisteredWhippet » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 15:43:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Practice yoga

and/or

Be a floppy drunk

and Peak Oil will be less painful?

Gee, thanks...


Okay, thats the last time I cast pearls before swine... j/k. More pearls will come your way MrBill.
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Re: collapse provable

Unread postby BlisteredWhippet » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 16:11:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')OK, so the way of dealing with PO is practicing a flexible mindset and keep going as if everything was OK? Not sure it's the best way of dealing with it.


No, you got it half wrong. The best way is having a flexible mindset, and go an as if you intend not to die/fail/flail etc.... In terms of MC'ing, the difference is subtle but important. The crash mentality figures crashing as an option, the "stay on bike" mentality does not "plan" for that. Presented with trouble scenario, crash-mentality always spares a few brain cycles considering laying the bike down or otherwise ejecting. The basic thought process is transactional, ie. I trade x amount of pain for (supposedly greater) y amount of pain. Then it charges the autonomous nervous system and fast-reaction cetners of the brain for making this analysis accurately. In terms of real-life effects, my guess is that it causes riders to crash in scenarios where it could have been avoided.

For example, Falconfury says:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f one is .7 seconds from crashing at high speed on a motorcycle, one should focus on landing properly, not avoiding the crash.


This is crasher's mentailty is disguise. You can prepare for handling a motorcycle properly, because most of the time there is no obstacle to avoid. You cannot prepare for landing unless you have some contingency plan of going superman (ie. ditching). Prepare your body in advance, and the autonomous nervous system will work out the best landing possible much faster than you could ever think about it. There is no better way of doing it. Consider touching a hot burner with your finger. Do you think you could mentally, in your off-time, plan a better way to react physcially to such an occurance in the future?

Besides which you can't do anything about a cow at 200 feet travelling 196 mph.

Like golgo 13 said,

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have also ditched to avoid a crash. I was stupid, I learned from my mistake.

So it would be better to just suck up the crash then?

Usually if you crash on a bike at signifigant speed, you're not staying with it anyways.


My mindset is not one where I consider at all whether I will crash or not crash in any given scenario. I only prepare my body for any contingencies, and ride with the intention of staying on the bike and not crashing. For me, that means I'm not riding 196mph on a road where cows wander around.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't know how well the bike metaphor applies. After all, there is a much longer timeframe involved, even if the inertia is great enough that your chances of avoiding the crash are similarly small. I prefer the Titanic metaphor, because it does give you time to think. And I know that if I was in the Titanic, I'd be heading for the lifeboats. And if it was too late to grab a lifeboat, I'd get the first thing that approximated one.


Thats another great metaphor. I personally believe in the usefulness of any of this kind of metaphorical thinking. After all, what you're doing is creating mental models to simulate approaching problems that you don't have an ability to accurately model to begin with.

Using metaphors to think about PO "drills" your subconsious on how to prioritize and react to situations that will arise where you have no prior real experience. As far as the benefits of Yoga, the process is similar. You bend your body in a way that "drills" it in how to relax and flex when you don't have top-down mental control, ie. autonomous control only. This increases the accuracy and speed of reactions, whether enduring the forces of a high speed collision or even touching a hot burner. The reaction will be faster and more accurate.

Similarly mental modelling by metaphor will allow your reactions to be faster and more accurate. Those who don't faithfully and accurately do Yoga, for example, won't necessarily gain the benefits. You can always persue the wrong metaphor, incomplete metaphors, etc. for peak oil, and then you'll be just like the lady running about for ear-plugs on the Titanic. What did her mental model consist of? Nearest best alternative, probably. Swimming lessons. The people who survive in situations like that are going up the gangplank looking at the water below and thinking, that water is cold like... (imagining being submerged in ice-water). The people that don't survive ignore thinking about the water and comfort themselves with what a big, sturdy ship they're on.
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Re: collapse provable

Unread postby drew » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 16:12:26

Oh, I cant help myself, I need to jump into the MC crash story, what the heck.

I am a former amateur roadracer, and I raced for half of 1 season. My best finish was 5th (out of a qualifying field of 90) on May 24 1990 at the Can-Am match races at Shannonville, in 600 production. I also placed 10th that season. 10th or better is in the points.

As for crashing strategies I say bullshit-it is all luck.

I crashed 13 times on the street before smartening up and going to the track-these crashes were almost all lowsides. Two were highsides and one of these broke my collarbone. All 13 were between 30 and 60 mph.

I never hit anything.-very important

I crashed 4 times on the track, the fastest being 100 mph in practice the day before I got my 5th place.

I never hit anything.-very important

I am a relatively tense person muscularly, so I don't buy the 'relax, and you will be fine' argument.

I know many many freinds from racing who get hurt, it is part of motorcycling, and is driven by luck to a very great degree.

I still crash (mountain bikes) a fair bit and almost never get hurt, aside from trail rash (roadrash on dirt?)

My freind, who I bike with has broken most of the bones in his body through skiing and biking accidents. He is not a klutz, he is just unlucky.

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Re: collapse provable

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 18:50:15

I sure couldn't afford your hobbies, drew. No health insurance!

I spent many years in the saddle of a 10-speed, racing around the DC area, but finally gave it up because I knew it was only a matter of time until I killed myself.
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Re: collapse provable

Unread postby drew » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 20:19:17

Ha, I couldn't afford my hobbies either!

That's why I quit after 5 races. Half my expense of 6000 or so was exploding my transmission which completely destroyed the engine cases. The rest was just tires, fees, food, beer, and fuel. Amateur fees for the 3 classes I ran were about 250 bucks a weekend. My bike wasn't hard on tires so I didn't spend too much, but a freind with a zx7 would eat 3 back tires a weekend at $250 per tire.

One of my freinds went pro and raced pro for almost ten years. He spent 50 k per annum, despite getting superbikes from yamaha and tons of cash and support from them. He would make 3k on a weekend if he did well. There is no money in the sport up here.

As for crashes, I was lucky. A top 5 (canada) pro I know, Mark Kowalski, was retired by a 14 week coma. Another freind, who only raced amateur, was run over by two of our competitors. He is ok, but needs a cane to walk.

It is good to live up here for the health insurance-that is only too true in mine, and my buddies cases!

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Re: collapse provable

Unread postby Chicken_Little » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 20:55:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'O')h, leave him alone. They're a lot of fun.


I'm worried he's having some kind of emotional freakout....


8O



I used to like grabby's posts but now i'm scared of them.

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Re: collapse provable

Unread postby grabby » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 23:24:19

Ohl, I'm sorry for frightening you. Most people do not like the worst possible scenario so maybe we should lay off that, and only look to the best possible future, great idea.

I understand. If anyone of us here tonight go out and tell the truth about oil right away without allowing thinking time it sounds dangerous and scary. To put it in a nutshell is a bad idea. So I am actually going to go and remove that part that is irrefutable part.

I forget there are new people here and just putting it blunt that soon oil could ACTUALLY AFFECT YOUR INCOME! And maybe the kind of food you eat! Hard to imagine, isn't it?

But read through this web site and you will see that it is possible that the amount of oil we use could actually cause some problems with the economy even! Just saying this right away is not a good idea, if they want to figure it out they will. If they don't they won't. regardless there is lots of good info on this web site.

Maybe you can give a best case scenario how we can be saved out of this peak oil problem and I will be glad to read it and share it. Great Idea.
and then we can retire this thread then we can be happy, and don't worry.

Conserve, live green make ethanol but not enough to damage the ecology, burn fuel but not enough to hurt the Ozone and not enough to cause global warming. Ride your bike when you can, buy smaller cars, put up solar panels, and support your farmers making ethanol as long as they dont ruin their ground by it.

Try to live better for the people around you and hope we never have a crash.
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Re: collapse provable

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 18 Aug 2006, 04:54:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Practice yoga

and/or

Be a floppy drunk

and Peak Oil will be less painful?

Gee, thanks...


Okay, thats the last time I cast pearls before swine... j/k. More pearls will come your way MrBill.


Well, I was planning to drink that moonshine, not put it in my truck, once TSHTF in any case, so just glad we are somewhat on the same wavelength. Or perhaps as Doly put it, on the Titanic, when they say, 'Gentlemen, the bar is now open.'
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: collapse provable

Unread postby BlisteredWhippet » Mon 21 Aug 2006, 16:06:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'T')hats what it will take to make it through, a cheap plentiful source of energy cheaper and more available and in greater supply than oil. We need fusion to make it through this event and we need it within 3 weeks.


Looks like we just wasted a week sticking our thumbs up our asses and spinning around. :cry:
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Re: collapse provable

Unread postby BlisteredWhippet » Mon 21 Aug 2006, 16:52:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', 'A')s for crashing strategies I say bullshit-it is all luck.


Okay, pay attention people, here's where my riding philosophy diverges from Drews: he thinks its all luck.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', 'I') crashed 13 times on the street before smartening up and going to the track-these crashes were almost all lowsides. Two were highsides and one of these broke my collarbone. All 13 were between 30 and 60 mph.


You're implying here that you were either overriding your capabilities, or in cop-speak, "speed too fast for conditions". What does luck have to do with it? You did to yourself.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', 'I') never hit anything.-very important.


This directly implies that you did it to yourself. I, too have crashed without hitting anything. Its stupidity, a lack of balance. Underestimation of conditions, improper mental frame of mind. 5 mph, 50 mph, it doesn't matter. You can blame gravel, your tires, the wind, "luck", or whatever. Who was piloting the bike??

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', 'I') crashed 4 times on the track, the fastest being 100 mph in practice the day before I got my 5th place.

I never hit anything.-very important


Well, this is something different. I've never ridden over 75mph... let alone 100. I just don't see the need. And being a student of the physics of riding and probabilities, don't see myself ever travelling at such speeds.

When I'm riding, I'm making lots of judgements like that... "I don't 'need' to pass this line of traffic on the left"... "I don't 'need' to go 75mph down this stretch."

I have to question why you feel the need to crash your bike, and couch it terms of a similarly unjustifiable need to go 100mph. Sounds like a philosophy of carelessness worshipping at the altar of luck. I've developed my fair share of self-destructive patterns of behavior in my life... thank god I've evolved out of them. And you can be sure I'm not going to pass on any of those faulty rationales or self-destructive mindsets.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', 'I') am a relatively tense person muscularly, so I don't buy the 'relax, and you will be fine' argument.

This isn't the substantive message in my theory. Nothing guarantees you will be 'fine'. But if the autonomic nervous system is the only bodily control system operating in those extreme conditions, and Yoga improves the functionality of that system, then it is effective. BTW, just about any focused physical training whether yoga, weights, pilates, etc. will probably reinforce and strengthen that mind-body connection that makes survival possible.

In your case you probably had the benefit of muscle memory from crashing all the time. Your body got better at dealing with it through exposure. Strength isn't better or worse than flexibility, they're just two aspects of a sum total benefit.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drew', '
')I know many many freinds from racing who get hurt, it is part of motorcycling, and is driven by luck to a very great degree.

My philosophy categorically denies conceptualizing failure through the specific application of statistical norms on individual behavior.

For example, if we were an oddsmaker in Vegas we might say that the odds are 2 to 1 that any given person would come off a bike that just started motorcycling.

A misapplication of this theory would be a mental construct by a new rider: If I ride for a year, and my chances are 2 to 1 I will crash, then I will either crash in the first half of the year, or the second half.

Imagine fear clouding his mind while riding that year. When will the (irresistable force) come out of nowhere and knock me down? Is it this patch of gravel? Is it this intersection? That Blue SUV? Is my number up today? Its raining- I knew I shouldn't have left home! etc., etc.

Re-enforce that fear mentality with crusty old bikers dropping their "its all luck" and "its not a matter of 'if' but 'when'", or "its part of motorcycling". I would suggest adding the following to the end of any of these: "... for other people- for me, I will use all of my ability to stay on the bike and stay alive no matter what situation I'm in."

I think you can take information and either make a negative mental construct out of it that will limit you and put you in a fear mode, or take that same information and put it into a mental construct that puts you in control of your life and "destiny". Something that gives you power over yourself instead of taking it away.

Statistical truths don't add up to reality for any given individual. consider all the doomer die-off 1 in 8 theories. I'd say its bizarre but true that those 7 out of 8 people who read that have already internalized failure. Evidence some of the people who are already planning to drink mass quantities of alcohol or hole up in a survival bunker... pure reactivity without a whiff of immediate, real threat. The improper mental device is the identification of self as statistic.

My simple argument on that is: if you think you're going to die in the PO aftermath, you probably will- in part BECAUSE of this frame of mind.

There is a lot of theories as to the mechanisms of this thought-reality stuff... stuff I've looked into just enough to know its saying the same basic thing as my theory. Mentally-induced "attractors", quantum mind/reality somesuch. I will say I believe this stuff in effect apart from any specific theory.

Frankly, I believe less in luck for most day-to-day things than I used to. Its luck you weren't born the heir to the Gates fortune. Its not luck that you piloted your cruiser off the turnpike.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drew', '
')I still crash (mountain bikes) a fair bit and almost never get hurt, aside from trail rash (roadrash on dirt?)


I've returned to biking myself and have yet to seriously crash in the last 1.5 years of extensive riding.

Drew, its seems you've mastered the art of crashing. Perhaps you should move on to the art of staying upright in all situations... :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drew', '
')My freind, who I bike with has broken most of the bones in his body through skiing and biking accidents. He is not a klutz, he is just unlucky.

Bull-fuckin'-shit, Drew. He's your friend so you're cutting him slack. He's as reckless as any of those guys that jump 100s of feet on dirtbike tracks.

Your problem is obvious from the way you fail to see his problem clearly.
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Re: collapse potential if nothing is done

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 22 Aug 2006, 02:38:47

BlisteredWhippet wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ull-fuckin'-shit, Drew. He's your friend so you're cutting him slack. He's as reckless as any of those guys that jump 100s of feet on dirtbike tracks.

Your problem is obvious from the way you fail to see his problem clearly.


All very interesting I am sure. I never got on a bike I couldn't fall off, but perhaps we should use the analogies to discuss post-peak oil depletion economics instead? Thanks.
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