[Armageddon]

ceasefire, no hurricanes, driving season almost over, profit taking, stupid people, etc

[Nano]

Oil was on its way down before the lebanese/israeli crisis. Since that seems to have wound down now the price of oil has dropped to what it would be without that crisis IMHO

The price of oil will likely fall further on slowing of the global economy and more capacity coming online the next few years. (see the oil megaprojects lists for details)

Peak oil will probably not be before 2010 if not later, so any slowing in demand growth now or in the next few years can still have a dramatic effect on the oil price. In the short term, people like Mike Lynch and Daniel Yergin might turn out to be right about the oil price. Long term say past 2020 they are not IMHO.

However doomerish you might want to be, don't forget the world economy has a lot of momentum and there still a lot more oil to process before we really run out. Even if peak hits in 2010 then the price of oil in 2008 could easily be below 50$ only to spike back to current price levels again in 2009, for example. These are all very slow processes, contrary to what some of the more extreme doomers here might want you to think. Keep it together.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'I') know. I'm just looking for an excuse to give up my doomerish attitude and become a nice and optimistic mainstream citizen again.

[Armageddon]

One hurricane will change all of this, and the conditions are getting better.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'I') don't know about you but a sustained price that is 200% over 5 years ago would not make me feel any better. Of course it would have to drop $10 to get THERE even.

-G

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'U')ncomically... I think you're watching the jitter. ...