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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Postby Heineken » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 16:20:48

Threatening to dive into 60s . . . how low can it go?

One factor feeding into this is the big fat zero this hurricane season is shaping up as. A lesson to those too ready to heed the word of "experts." Remember all the hurricane hype? Gone with the non-wind. I know, the season still has time . . . but weather patterns can be like the Rock of Gilbraltar once they get established.

I've got my oil-stock portfolio all sold off, profits neatly socked away . . . now the question arises as to when to buy it all back.
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Re: Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 16:51:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')hreatening to dive into 60s . . . how low can it go?


There are predictions, that it may stabilize in mid 40 region.
Do you believe in those?
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Re: Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Postby ClubOfRomeII » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 16:53:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')hreatening to dive into 60s . . . how low can it go?



Does it mean Peak is over now?
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Re: Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Postby turmoil » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 17:35:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')hreatening to dive into 60s . . . how low can it go?



Does it mean Peak is over now?

Just a little intermission... grab some popcorn
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"When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the truth"-Sherlock Holmes
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Re: Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Postby Heineken » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 18:39:06

You're in Richmond? I'm about 40 miles west, near Mineral.

Good to know there's at least one informed person in Richmond (Mineral, population 500, doesn't count).
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Re: Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Postby Heineken » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 18:42:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')hreatening to dive into 60s . . . how low can it go?


There are predictions, that it may stabilize in mid 40 region.
Do you believe in those?


No. I'll stick my neck and say we'll never see $50 again. Ever.

However, there's a lot of money to be made on the oil-price peaks and valleys, and I've made a lot and plan to make a lot more. Granted it's just play money.

Buying any oil stock right now will sooner or later be a winner, since $100 oil (and higher) is inevitable.

A can't-lose proposition.

The market still hasn't recognized the essential cheapness of oil stocks. For example, Anadarko currently sports a P/E of less than 8!!
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Re: Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Postby Zardoz » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 19:13:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '.')..One factor feeding into this is...

...pre-election market manipulation to vastly enhance the chances of incumbents being re-elected.

After the election, Katy bar the door.
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Re: Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Postby Heineken » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 21:59:03

Could be, Zardoz. I wouldn't put anything past those bastards. The question is whether even they have the power to pull it off. Some of the price factors are out of their control---like the weather.
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Re: Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Postby BastardSquad » Fri 18 Aug 2006, 00:00:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turmoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')hreatening to dive into 60s . . . how low can it go?



Does it mean Peak is over now?

Just a little intermission... grab some popcorn


Bumpy Plateau anyone???
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Re: Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Postby paoniapbud » Fri 18 Aug 2006, 00:05:11

I'm all for conspiracy theory and all but the powers that be manipulating the global oil market? Unlikely at best. :shock:
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Re: Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Postby jesus_of_suburbia_old » Fri 18 Aug 2006, 00:25:37

No way it goes lower than $65 again. It was in the seventies before the Lebananon/Israel shenadigans and BP's Prudoe boo-boo.
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Re: Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Postby jato » Fri 18 Aug 2006, 02:37:58

Image

Every few months it takes a run down to the 200 moving day average (which is $67 right now). This is nothing new.
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Re: Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Postby evilgenius » Fri 18 Aug 2006, 03:05:17

I like Anadarko too. They have taken advantage of perceptions to buy up reserves. Too many of the big companies have over stated their reserves. Anadarko will be positioned well about two years out when the reality of now can't be gotten away from any longer.

That being said the world still has a lot of little fields that haven't been exploited yet. This goes for South America as well as off shore US. Those fields will be expensive to develop so oil prices wil have to remain high or the world simply won't have that oil. As they are brought on and consumed in the, what is it, eighteen month cycle the world will face the nightmare of limited sources. That is when the problem of over stated reserves will hurt some investors, when no more can be pumped out of already overtaxed ME fields.

I think there are two major things that will effect the price between then and now. The first is a possible withdrawal, redeployment, from Iraq. The second is a terrible recession. I think both of those will be huge buying opportunities as the sheeple will run from oil thinking that a temporary price collapse is indicative of geological truth.
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Oil is falling? Why?

Postby Lighthouse » Fri 18 Aug 2006, 08:25:43

around $70 on 321energy. Is that the result of the Israel/Lebanon ceasfire or why? Any ideas?
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Re: Oil is falling? Why?

Postby rwwff » Fri 18 Aug 2006, 08:31:05

Five thousand covert Republican agents descreetly selling ....
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Re: Oil is falling? Why?

Postby Lighthouse » Fri 18 Aug 2006, 08:35:38

Ok it's up on 71 again. Profit taking or this free energy thingummy?
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Re: Oil is falling? Why?

Postby rwwff » Fri 18 Aug 2006, 08:38:48

Uncomically... I think you're watching the jitter. There is no rhymre or reason to the jitter; its just random chance of when someone, or a bunch of someones come on the market to buy. 50 day moving average, or even just the daily high-low bar chart are better things to pay attention.
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Re: Oil is falling? Why?

Postby Lighthouse » Fri 18 Aug 2006, 08:46:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'U')ncomically... I think you're watching the jitter. ...



I know. I'm just looking for an excuse to give up my doomerish attitude and become a nice and optimistic mainstream citizen again.
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Re: Meanwhile, back at the ranch, oil price is crashing

Postby Heineken » Fri 18 Aug 2006, 09:04:47

Anadarko paid a lot for Western Gas, but it will still be a winner for investors in the end. I (and some others) predict that Anadarko will ultimately be bought by a biggie like Exxon or Chevron.

Only problem with Anadarko is that you're not paid to wait. The dividend sucks at less than 1%.

Well, oil price is up substantially this a.m. Hope I didn't wait too long to start buying oil stocks back.
Last edited by Heineken on Fri 18 Aug 2006, 09:32:32, edited 1 time in total.
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