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THE Thunder Horse Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

BP's Browne sees delay to Thunder Horse and higher costs

Unread postby LadyRuby » Tue 25 Jul 2006, 16:17:03

Thunder Horse delayed to 2007: See video half way down

A few quotes from video:
..There's a lot of oil left...
...Given the complexity of the environment its worth waiting to see what happens here.

Huge cost increases in E&P sector. Drilling rigs, engineers, contractors, in short supply. We can see exploration budget gone up due to inflation. We should expect further capital cost inflation over the next years (so in other words exploration cost increases just due to inflation).

We have plenty of opportunities for today and tomorrow.
...I think it's right to support the privitization of russian state companies. ... We have a very deep relationship with Rosneft....
...the tnk bp opertaion is very stable, we continue to add significant reserves...
... China doesn't hve a very strong upstream set of opportunities, so our activities have much more to do with petrochemicals...

he's said he's leaving in 2008... even if asked to stay beyond 2008, he would decline....time for a fresh pair of eyes (i.e., he wants to get out before TSHTF).
... the world of oil is in a significant period of change...(re: high oil prices) we have to figure out what this all means (I know). Says it has to do with peoples anxieties...Iran, Iraq, etc.
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Re: BP's Browne sees delay to Thunder Horse and higher costs

Unread postby frankthetank » Tue 25 Jul 2006, 16:32:05

Blunderhorse better get lucky again this hurricane season....
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Re: BP's Browne sees delay to Thunder Horse and higher costs

Unread postby nth » Tue 25 Jul 2006, 18:07:03

It looks like even with best technology, we are no match for hurricane 4s and 5's. GoM can never be a reliable producer. It is worse than Middle East especially Iraq.
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Re: BP's Browne sees delay to Thunder Horse and higher costs

Unread postby seahorse » Wed 26 Jul 2006, 09:29:51

I looked for the video but didn't see it. I saw one on Pickens, but not one on Thunderhorse.
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Re: BP's Browne sees delay to Thunder Horse and higher costs

Unread postby LadyRuby » Wed 26 Jul 2006, 09:35:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'I') looked for the video but didn't see it. I saw one on Pickens, but not one on Thunderhorse.

Looks like the moved it. I couldn't find a place on that site for archived video so may be out of luck.
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Thunder Horse

Unread postby Leanan » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 11:47:57

Fortune has this article, about BP: Beyond Prudhoe: Why BP should go back to being an oil company

It's about all the things that BP has done wrong, despite trying to pose as a "green" oil company. But what struck me was this bit:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Thunder Horse platform, damaged in last year's hurricanes, will not be reopened until 2007 at the earliest, much later than originally forecast.

I missed that news, which was apparently announced in late July. Last I heard, they were predicting it would be producing in "the second half of 2006." Which many analysts were assuming was July 2006. This is why I think we're probably at peak about now. There's lots of new production expected in the next few years, but whether it will come online according to schedule is a whole different story.
"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
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Re: Thunder Horse

Unread postby Zardoz » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 12:01:08

Lest we forget how close they came to losing it completely:

Image

It could easily have ended up on the bottom.
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Re: Thunder Horse

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 12:38:31

I think the news on the Thunder Horse delay came out about August 8, due to recently found leaks that could not be fixed soon.
BP appears to be relying on structures they may not have stand up to Nature as well as they thought/hoped:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')unday Times (UK) August 13, 2006
The numerous problems have been compounded by costly delays to BP's Thunder Horse platform in the Gulf of Mexico, which was left listing badly after Hurricane Dennis last year. Production from Thunder Horse is not likely to resume until early next year, more than 12 months later than scheduled, while the $250m repair bill resulting from the platform's near sinking is set to rise after the discovery of leaks.

He said recently of BP's troubles in America: "I'm not going to say it was a string of bad luck. If we have to further enhance our safety value system, we will. Thunder Horse was about pushing the technology of floaty bits ... In Alaska we believed we had the right (pipeline corrosion) programme in place. Clearly we did not."
{no link available}
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')usiness Week Online August 8, 2006
Alaska isn't the only trouble spot. Where Hurricane Katrina had blasted in late 2005, BP found two leaks this May in subsea equipment at Thunder Horse, an offshore drilling site southeast of New Orleans. The company expects to replace the damaged pipes and start production in 2007.
{no link available}
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Re: Thunder Horse

Unread postby Bleep » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 12:53:43

Dante, please take a minute to search http://news.google.com for links. Just put some text from your article in double quotes and find the nice links:
link1 and link2 and link3
Thanks
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Re: Thunder Horse

Unread postby frankthetank » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 14:38:52

Why pump it now @ $75 when they can pump it @ $100 later???...

Its either that or they are having a string of horrible luck. I thought Blunderhorse was a goner last hurricane season....
lawns should be outlawed.
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Re: Thunder Horse

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 18:29:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bleep', 'D')ante, please take a minute to search http://news.google.com for links. Just put some text from your article in double quotes and find the nice links: link1 and link2 and link3
Thanks

Thanks. Sometimes my real job interferes with the PO.com posting and I don't get to finish up properly.
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Re: Thunder Horse

Unread postby Revi » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 19:49:50

With both thunderhorse and the north slope down for the count we must be way down in domestic production. How much are we off now? Are we importing more to make up for it?
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Re: Thunder Horse

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 21:38:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')ith both thunderhorse and the north slope down for the count we must be way down in domestic production. How much are we off now? Are we importing more to make up for it?

Yes, I would expect oil and product imports to be just about record highs right about now (with the possible exception of the post-Katrina bailout floatila by the IEA). US oil imports are up about 2.5% year over year recently, but products are up a much more significant 13.5%.
Last week, word got out that the Saudis were draining down their Caribean inventories at a rapid rate. I would not even be surprised if oil inventories in the US are still rising due to picked up imports. However that would be a misleading indication of where oil supplies will be in the future - especially if another Gulf of Mexico hurricane pops up (albeit the GOM is much more quiet this year than last).
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Re: Thunder Horse

Unread postby No-Oil » Wed 16 Aug 2006, 09:15:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'L')est we forget how close they came to losing it completely: It could easily have ended up on the bottom.

Along with the 110 written off/lost & its one of the 35 heavily damaged in the hurricanes last year. There are no spare rigs to replace them, they take years to build cost 100's of Millions of Dollars & all build centres are already flatout building rigs on order, never mind replacements !
Want a new investment, buy a rig building company :)
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Where there's a WAR there's a WAY :(
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Thunder Horse delayed....again

Unread postby Leanan » Mon 18 Sep 2006, 12:58:39

BP Says Thunder Horse Platform Delayed Until Mid-2008
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')BP Plc, Europe's second-largest oil company, said its Thunder Horse production platform in the Gulf of Mexico won't start until at least the middle of 2008, more than two years behind schedule, because of repair delays. Tests over four months ``revealed metallurgical failure in components of the subsea system,'' which will now be retrieved and rebuilt, London-based BP said in a statement today.

The start-up delay at Thunder Horse is the second in two months, and comes after a series of disasters at the company's U.S. operations, including a 2005 Texas refinery explosion, oil spills in Alaska, and investigations into market manipulation in propane and oil trading. The platform, designed to process 250,000 barrels of oil a day and 200 million standard cubic feet of gas per day, was damaged by Hurricane Dennis in July 2005, leaving it listing at a 20-degree angle. It still hasn't started production.

On July 25, BP said Thunder Horse and another platform, Atlantis, wouldn't start until early 2007, after saying in April that Thunder Horse would start in the second-half of this year. Thunder Horse was originally supposed to start in late 2005 and Atlantis this year.
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Re: BP's Thunderhorse 140,000 bpd

Unread postby joewp » Mon 18 Sep 2006, 13:06:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BP Says Thunder Horse Platform Delayed Until Mid-2008', 'B')P Plc, Europe's second-largest oil company, said its Thunder Horse production platform in the Gulf of Mexico won't start until at least the middle of 2008, more than two years behind schedule, because of repair delays. Tests over four months "revealed metallurgical failure in components of the subsea system,'' which will now be retrieved and rebuilt, London-based BP said in a statement today.

The start-up delay at Thunder Horse is the second in two months, and comes after a series of disasters at the company's U.S. operations, including a 2005 Texas refinery explosion, oil spills in Alaska, and investigations into market manipulation in propane and oil trading. The platform, designed to process 250,000 barrels of oil a day and 200 million standard cubic feet of gas per day, was damaged by Hurricane Dennis in July 2005, leaving it listing at a 20-degree angle. It still hasn't started production.

Poor Thunder Horse. Will it ever produce oil?
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Re: Thunder Horse delayed....again

Unread postby nth » Mon 18 Sep 2006, 13:15:01

This makes me think either Shell is quite good or they were very lucky to get mars up and running so fast relative to thunderhorse.
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Re: Thunder Horse delayed....again

Unread postby strider3700 » Mon 18 Sep 2006, 13:52:06

Or BP realizes that 250,000 barrels/day will be worth far more 3 years from now then tommorrow and in the long run it's best to take their time
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: Thunder Horse delayed....again

Unread postby seahorse2 » Mon 18 Sep 2006, 13:57:50

Whatever the reason, the problems with Thunderhorse should temper the optimism about getting oil out of the ground in this "new" deepwater Gulf of Mexico find, 27k feet below.
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